Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Here's a similar but interactive graph:

Italy with over 10K deaths is far more further along in the cycle, they have had their steep ascent and are flattening out as they get nearer their peak. The UK is just starting to approach the steep part of the curve.

Basically the graphs are largely as expected and don't say anything new.

As per the information given today, maintain the discipline and a 20k total would be considered an attainable goal, relax it and the total could be multiple times higher.
 
Mate, we're currently seeing ~ 200 deaths a day. I'd be amazed if we don't see that rise to 500 a day in the next week or two. At that rate, you're talking about 15,000 a month.

Over the length of a typical flu season, that'd be 60000 people. In itself, that would swamp the NHS, but when you add the number of people being admitted to hospital for care, including ICU, we'd be looking at a situation which would then effect the ability of the system to care for the number of people who are seriously ill for other reasons.

You can just about cope with that for a short time, but sooner rather than later, doctors and nurses will be so tired they'll start to make mistakes.

This isn't a game, or a film, it's real, and there's not enough slack in the system to cope, so you either let 10's of thousands people die needlessly, or you take an economic hit. Putting party politics to one side, no government would survive overseeing a situation leading to so many obviousably preventable deaths.

Im not comparing this thing to flu btw mate maybe I wasn't clear enough in my original post which I apologise if so for the confusion.

Essentially what I'm getting at is that we have the system in place to accurately record those infected with say the flu and can record the accurate number of deaths/those needing hospital treatment from it whereas with COVID-19 we simply haven't a clue what we are dealing with right now.

Without testing we can only go off official figures which only tell one side of the story as we only have records of the numbers tested in hospitals who are in worse condition and not the supposed silent majority of those who either show no symptoms at all or those mild enough to "self isolate" at home.

Until we record the total figures we can not realistically predict the actual death rate of this, the rate of Hospital beds needed or how long/frequent we need to lockdown for.

Thankfully it sounds like its more a case of the technology not yet being ready than the Government not willing to test the population however the idea of charging folk these tests is for me counter productive- those on benefits, struggling financially and some who simply are tightarses are less likely to fork out for tests therefore again results are less accurate - they should be sending them out one addressed to every person registered on the electoral roll / schools lists as thats the only way we'll learn more about this thing.
 
Italy with over 10K deaths is far more further along in the cycle, they have had their steep ascent and are flattening out as they get nearer their peak. The UK is just starting to approach the steep part of the curve.

Basically the graphs are largely as expected and don't say anything new.
Watching the graphs will tell us if/when we beat this thing.

 
Because my local park is literally about 100m from my house but I could just run up and down my street and just as easily avoid people. Older people don’t need empowering they’re allowed to leave the house to walk; no one is discriminating them by asking people not to drive to national parks for walks. The vulnerable shouldn’t leave the house whatsoever of course.

There is a cohort of older people who do need empowering else wise we wouldn't need safe guarding teams or there would be no such thing as elder abuse. Ageism isn't always overt, like racism, but ageism can be subtle but impactful on a micro and macro level its been quite visible in this crises both the good and bad.

There is of course a spectrum of more able and more vulnerable people and people in between. Say someone just after hip surgery who cant walk to the park, but want to go for a short walk in the park for 10 mins on their cane or in a wheelchair. I think its impossible to be absolute, but possible to be inclusive of nuance of need.

If you break your leg in the morning and your going off your nut at home and your misses brings you to the park in the car, for a 30 mins walk in the park to get out of the house, then my belief would be you should be accommodated in the car park and have priority given your needs regardless of age. However we know older people or people with disabilities are statistically more likely to have those compromised needs and have them accommodated. I think a decent society should accommodate that, or put instruments in place to allow it - a very simple solution like a park ranger issuing a parking pass based on need, seems very reasonable to me, rather then a Darwinian strongest survive approach or just a blanket approach.

The older people driving to the park are probably those that ran there 50 years ago, now walk there every day and all of a sudden half the country wants to do the same thing, they do every day and are now being squeezed out, or told walk around the village instead.

That would be just my take mind. I think this crisis has thrown up and made more visible the really good and the really bad of our attitudes and behavior to older and more vulnerable people. Its very fascinating.

Anyhow maybe agree to differ, i think you get a sense of my approach and where i come from on it.
 
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Watching the graphs will tell us if/when we beat this thing.



That China hey! An (unofficial) population of 2 billion and still keeping the numbers so low.

Outliers in this sort of thing usually have a reason for it and in this instance, very very unlikely to have been for the same reasons as SK (which is much closer to the normal range)

Absolutely ridiculous. No one who can ever have worked in China can even begin to believe those figures.
 
Until we record the total figures we can not realistically predict the actual death rate of this, the rate of Hospital beds needed or how long/frequent we need to lockdown for.

Oh, I'd agree with that, but you don't need to be Brain of Britain to work out that if hospital admissions due to COVID-19 continued to rise at the rates we've seen over the last couple of weeks then an awful lot of people would die.

That means, that, at a minimum, we're looking at a six week lockdown rather than a three week one. The government might not have gone public with that info, but it's nigh on 100% certain to be the case. Once cases per day stop rising and significant numbers are getting discharged, then you can think about relaxing the lockdown

That doesn't mean you shouldn't start a random testing programme to identify what percentage of the population is infected, you absolutely should, because that can then be fed into the models to see how quickly you can relax the lockdown, but the priority has to be getting a lid on the current situation.
 
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Ive always liked the Swedish flag.......
 
That China hey! An (unofficial) population of 2 billion and still keeping the numbers so low.

Outliers in this sort of thing usually have a reason for it and in this instance, very very unlikely to have been for the same reasons as SK (which is much closer to the normal range)

Absolutely ridiculous. No one who can ever have worked in China can even begin to believe those figures.

this rumour about the decline in mobile phone subscribers over there is horrifying, though it is being pushed by some badly wrong people on Twitter
 
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