Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Neiler]

Good post, mate. Tho' I would add the unvaxxed hospital rates isn't that overly-amplified compared to the vaxxed. About 4-to-1 (/cases) of the 18-59 age group, and as ratio against total number of beds available it should be relatively manageable: the unvaxxed seem to be using around 7% of total ICUs, or 2% or total bed-capacity overall.

There should be no need for the media/politicians/public/NHS to panic, at least not unless something drastically changes these next few weeks/months. But signs are Omicron is not that bad



What are fbpe types?

Plenty on this thread support such mandates.






This analysis from Denmark says something interesting too:

addendum/correction to danish VE data

there was a calc error, but it actually served to overstate VE.

boriquagato.substack.com

there's something antigenic in denmark: boosters show negative vaccine efficacy for cases

a preliminary look at the denmark data

boriquagato.substack.com

6 months having a painful arm is arguably worse than having a few days of bad cold.

Not sure that’s entirely accurate mate, the attached is the best data I’ve seen on ICU and Vaxed/Unvaxed in the U.K., again you have to look at the percentages overall through the frame of 90% of the population 60million, vaccinated and 7 million 10% unvaccinated. Even in a 50/50 split, it’s 10% (7 million) of a population (less children) are taking up 50% of full ICU national capacity. If people need care, they need care regardless of status…but it’s good to have context on the data.

How many Covid-19 patients in ICU are unvaccinated? – Full Fact

Recent data shows around half of those admitted in October and early November were unvaccinated—but this figure comes with important caveats

fullfact.org

 

[grandjoeblue]

Not sure that’s entirely accurate mate, the attached is the best data I’ve seen on ICU and Vaxed/Unvaxed in the U.K., again you have to look at the percentages overall through the frame of 90% of the population 60million, vaccinated and 7 million 10% unvaccinated. Even in a 50/50 split, it’s 10% (7 million) of a population (less children) are taking up 50% of full ICU national capacity. If people need care, they need care regardless of status…but it’s good to have context on the data.

How many Covid-19 patients in ICU are unvaccinated? – Full Fact

Recent data shows around half of those admitted in October and early November were unvaccinated—but this figure comes with important caveats

fullfact.org

Even the numbers he mentions are absolutely terrible. The guy is dangerous.

Keeps mentioning total ICU and bed capacity even though that's not the way it works.

 

[carolinablue232]

Not sure that’s entirely accurate mate, the attached is the best data I’ve seen on ICU and Vaxed/Unvaxed in the U.K., again you have to look at the percentages overall through the frame of 90% of the population 60million, vaccinated and 7 million 10% unvaccinated. Even in a 50/50 split, it’s 10% (7 million) of a population (less children) are taking up 50% of full ICU national capacity. If people need care, they need care regardless of status…but it’s good to have context on the data.

How many Covid-19 patients in ICU are unvaccinated? – Full Fact

Recent data shows around half of those admitted in October and early November were unvaccinated—but this figure comes with important caveats

fullfact.org

I tried to make this point a couple days ago and he came back with some unrelated stats and nonsense about converting beds for emergency use which isn’t the point at all. So I gave up. Good luck to you.

 

[Neiler]

I tried to make this point a couple days ago and he came back with some unrelated stats and nonsense about converting beds for emergency use which isn’t the point at all. So I gave up. Good luck to you.

Bed designation in the U.K. to be fair often isn’t linear as it is elsewhere you have general beds, critical care beds and ICU beds. Even raw ICU admission numbers aren’t a great metric to be honest, bed occupancy is often critical. For example you might have a post opp patient in need of ICU, but the bed isn’t there, because you have a Covid patient in there for 6 - 8 weeks, with serious illness, it’s what is meant by the vaccine protecting you from serious illness. Many teams compete for that ICU bed, other vital health care in cancelled as a result of the chain reaction, yet it only counts as one Covid admission to ICU. The rabbit hole gives a lot deeper on the ground. At times you have whole wings of ICU shut down, because of no cross contamination of patients, you obviously can’t put someone after acute surgery into a Covid ICU environment. Whole blockages of the offer of care and critical intervention backs up. It’s massively systemic.

 

[dholliday]

No, he isn't. Toby Young is someone who has been consistently, from the start of the pandemic, wrong.

We've all been wrong on stuff, you more than most. Good critical-thinking means being able to sift worthwhile info from a source who sometimes has unworthy info. Many of yous are so blindly-ideological that you'd never consider a Tory (or equivalent) would ever have anything worthwhile to say.

For most topics your ilk's polarised take on things wouldn't matter, but during this particular event we the people have a lot of potential influence...even you! Might be worth thinking about what you want to do with that influence.

In the meantime, here's some examples of interesting tweets from the toadmeister these last coupla days, some of which is info I hadn't seen elsewhere...there's often no 'wrong' or 'right' about them, they're just interesting and add to the overall debate in meaningful ways:





















https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1476111475232194563

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475912248149397508

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475881758654713856

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475877930970619909

https://twitter.com/LD_Sceptics/status/1475838513241284616

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475735723668119554

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475453097287852035

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475444921532362760

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475432008990040071

 

[woomy]

As a plus to the evolution of wards and beds.
I took a patient to general hospital today. For a procedure. The only one in the bay and was told they would likely be in there on their own as not much was happening.
Early evening comes, the bay, and ward was filling up. Seems the hospital wanted to free up as many wards as possible, just incase. So patients that were in, were all banged together.

It was a specialist department, which was running only serious stuff, with non serious sacked off.
When I left. It was full of all kinds of patients. All were covid clear. With a mix of nursing specialists.
The ones looking after us, said management were freeing up as much space as possible, so they could provide as many respiratory beds as possible.
They have whole wards empty now, just waiting for if an onslaught comes.

 

[tsubaki]

We've all been wrong on stuff, you more than most. Good critical-thinking means being able to sift worthwhile info from a source who sometimes has unworthy info. Many of yous are so blindly-ideological that you'd never consider a Tory (or equivalent) would ever have anything worthwhile to say.

For most topics your ilk's polarised take on things wouldn't matter, but during this particular event we the people have a lot of potential influence...even you! Might be worth thinking about what you want to do with that influence.

In the meantime, here's some examples of interesting tweets from the toadmeister these last coupla days, some of which is info I hadn't seen elsewhere...there's often no 'wrong' or 'right' about them, they're just interesting and add to the overall debate in meaningful ways:





















https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1476111475232194563

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475912248149397508

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475881758654713856

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475877930970619909

https://twitter.com/LD_Sceptics/status/1475838513241284616

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475735723668119554

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475453097287852035

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475444921532362760

https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1475432008990040071

What a strange, strange creature you are.

I’d also like to know where I’ve gone wrong “more than most”, though no doubt this will result in more meaningless spam from you.

 

[dholliday]

Not sure that’s entirely accurate mate, the attached is the best data I’ve seen on ICU and Vaxed/Unvaxed in the U.K., again you have to look at the percentages overall through the frame of 90% of the population 60million, vaccinated and 7 million 10% unvaccinated. Even in a 50/50 split, it’s 10% (7 million) of a population (less children) are taking up 50% of full ICU national capacity. If people need care, they need care regardless of status…but it’s good to have context on the data.

How many Covid-19 patients in ICU are unvaccinated? – Full Fact

Recent data shows around half of those admitted in October and early November were unvaccinated—but this figure comes with important caveats

fullfact.org

Your link doesn't actually tell us the absolute numbers. Your link tells us how many Covid patients are unvaxxed.

My earlier post estimated around 15% of total ICU-capacity were Covid patients (regardless of vax status), of which around 48% (as per your link) are unvaccinated...which makes the unvaxxed around 7% of total ICU-capacity...which as I've mentioned before in the grand scheme of things should be easily manageable seen as we're in the middle of a peak wave of the most drastic pandemic in living memory.

My earlier post, for reference:

What about now? Looking like around 750 (scroll down to final graph and filter for England), and on a downward trend.

More importantly: the actual quote is: "Of about 3,500 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) in England, about 900 were people with Covid.". You're implying 3,500 is the total ICU capacity. The total capacity is more like 5,000, plus the flexibility to use up to 80,000 NHS beds as level-2 emergency care if required.

Currently, accurate would be to say around 15% of ICU-capacity is taken up by Covid patients, and 6% of general bed-capacity.

Even the numbers he mentions are absolutely terrible. The guy is dangerous.

How is using total capacity numbers "terrible", and how am I "dangerous"?

Keeps mentioning total ICU and bed capacity even though that's not the way it works.

That is an important factor in how it works, to suggest otherwise is frankly ridiculous.

I tried to make this point a couple days ago and he came back with some unrelated stats and nonsense about converting beds for emergency use which isn’t the point at all. So I gave up. Good luck to you.

The point you tried to make was sullied by you misunderstanding the source you was reading. I explained this to you already (see above for reference).

Bed designation in the U.K. to be fair often isn’t linear as it is elsewhere you have general beds, critical care beds and ICU beds. Even raw ICU admission numbers aren’t a great metric to be honest, bed occupancy is often critical. For example you might have a post opp patient in need of ICU, but the bed isn’t there, because you have a Covid patient in there for 6 - 8 weeks, with serious illness, it’s what is meant by the vaccine protecting you from serious illness. Many teams compete for that ICU bed, other vital health care in cancelled as a result of the chain reaction, yet it only counts as one Covid admission to ICU. The rabbit hole gives a lot deeper on the ground. At times you have whole wings of ICU shut down, because of no cross contamination of patients, you obviously can’t put someone after acute surgery into a Covid ICU environment. Whole blockages of the offer of care and critical intervention backs up. It’s massively systemic.

Another high-quality post, Neiler!

I appreciate my posts are seen as very marmite (or even nomite), but yours - and a couple of other posters on here - are consistently agreeable on all sides of the aisle.

 

[Mrk]

If you use Toby Young as your source for anything other than how to maintain a really shiny head, you're probably wrong.

 

[dholliday]

What a strange, strange creature you are.

A strange response...I'm demonstrating that Toby Young isn't "always wrong", just that he's a journalist who's reporting on some interesting takes on the pandemic which the mainstream doesn't cover. It's more strange to ignore a reporter just because he once said something you disagree with.

I’d also like to know where I’ve gone wrong “more than most”, though no doubt this will result in more meaningless spam from you.

I've told you enough times, but you just don't see it.

Here's but two recent examples:

- Supporting the recent bombings in Afghan which killed dozens of innocent civilians
- supporting Assange being deported to USA

These are the opinions of a wrongun...

But my point is, despite you being so inhumanely wrong on these topics, if you say something I feel is worthwhile on the pandemic I'll highlight it. I don't dismiss you entirely. Just as I don't entirely dismiss Toby Young because he's said dumbshit about other stuff in the past.

i.e. play the ball, not the man.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Not sure what everyone is afraid of with restrictions - every other country in Europe has them, and no doubt will benefit in the long run.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Your link doesn't actually tell us the absolute numbers. Your link tells us how many Covid patients are unvaxxed.

My earlier post estimated around 15% of total ICU-capacity were Covid patients (regardless of vax status), of which around 48% (as per your link) are unvaccinated...which makes the unvaxxed around 7% of total ICU-capacity...which as I've mentioned before in the grand scheme of things should be easily manageable seen as we're in the middle of a peak wave of the most drastic pandemic in living memory.

My earlier post, for reference:





How is using total capacity numbers "terrible", and how am I "dangerous"?


That is an important factor in how it works, to suggest otherwise is frankly ridiculous.



The point you tried to make was sullied by you misunderstanding the source you was reading. I explained this to you already (see above for reference).



Another high-quality post, Neiler!

I appreciate my posts are seen as very marmite (or even nomite), but yours - and a couple of other posters on here - are consistently agreeable on all sides of the aisle.

To put it simply you're an antivax lunatic who posts one million lines of nonsense to justify your point. All available data shows that vaccines massively reduce hospitalisations and deaths. No nonsense about percentage of total beds is required.

 

[dholliday]

If you use Toby Young as your source for anything other than how to maintain a really shiny head, you're probably wrong.

Snappy Soundbite...but doesn't take the debate anywhere.

Take this Toby tweet, for example...he's highlighting something you may not see elsewhere. What do you think about it?




What he's highlighting is also what Allison Pearson & The Daily Mail have reported on...but as these people are Tories, many of yous instantly dismiss what they have to say. Yet...crucially...the people you do listen to aren't mentioning these things.

So...what of it?

 

[Prevenger17]

If you use Toby Young as your source for anything other than how to maintain a really shiny head, you're probably wrong.

It really has been harvest time for clueless numpties on Twitter over the last 2 years. There's a burgeoning market out there for people retweeting studies they haven't read and interpreting them with analytical skills they don't possess.

 

[Nymzee]

The Daily Sceptic. Bloody Nora.