Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Right me and my wife have had vaccines, her mother and father have had all they'res but are 83 and have breathing problems, do you crack on or isolate my missus goes around looking after them .its a feckin nightmare for me and my missus were a bit scared going for a meal bevy so on .missed drink with my mates boxing day because don't want to put family at risk ,when should we just crack on , frustrating
 
Lots of pressure still on the unvaccinated, from both sides of the political spectrum (the only difference is the Mail reader comments are supportive of the unvaxxed):




Choice quotes from The Guardian piece:
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The health secretary has accused those who have chosen not to take up the offer of free vaccination of taking up hospital beds, damaging society and potentially harming their families as well as themselves.

The prime minister also began rolling the pitch for a possibly tougher approach towards the unvaccinated when he spoke of the need for a “national conversation” about how the NHS would cope with the Omicron wave and further new variants.

“I don’t believe we can keep going indefinitely with non-pharmaceutical interventions, restrictions on people’s way of life, just because a substantial proportion of the population still, sadly, has not got vaccinated,” he said.

A mandatory vaccination policy (@Nymzee ) would almost certainly result in a challenge to Johnson’s authority from his backbenches. Those same MPs, however, are also opposed to national restrictions that hit all of society to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed.

Javid has estimated that 90% of the most severely ill in hospital at the moment are unvaccinated.

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Seems all pretty damning. No wonder many of yous have been sucked in.

But a closer look at the quoted data (relevant = what's happening right now) tells us the unvaccinated Omicron hospitalised number only 26%. Javid's 90% pertains only to a very specific use of very specific ventilation equipment with a total data set of only 154 patients stretched over 5 months...talk about cherry-picking!

So taking up hospital beds: technically yeah, but as a percentage of total beds it's merely a fraction.
damaging society by being responsible for restrictions: basically blaming the unvaxxed for the vaccinated having to comply with lockdowns & rules...is that really fair?
potentially harming their families: there's no significant scientific consensus that the unvaccinated are more dangerous than the vaccinated, most studies show that once infected the relative viral loads & duration are similar.


What about the Mail (hit)piece? Choice quotes:
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unvaccinated status is what marks out the vast majority of Covid patients in ICUs around the country right now. '80 to 90 per cent' of Covid patients in the beds he was responsible for were unvaccinated. Almost all of the Covid patients in my intensive care unit are unvaccinated. Many are only in their 30s and 40s.

They require round-the-clock care at enormous public expense — every critical-care bed costs about £1,500 per day to run — while putting immense pressure on the NHS in terms of cancelled surgeries and growing waiting lists. The impact of the backlog in NHS treatment — a record waiting list of 5.7 million and counting — has yet to play out fully.

But I have no doubt that will eventually be shown to have led to tens of thousands of unnecessary deaths and protracted, painful illness.
They have blood on their hands, and their deluded followers not only risk their own lives, but are holding the country to ransom with the threat of further restrictions and a New Year lockdown with all the devastation that brings businesses and individuals. It is difficult not to feel impotent fury at the impact their irresponsibility has had on my colleagues and everyone else.

As doctors, we cannot choose who to treat. But the fact is every bed taken by an unvaccinated Covid patient could instead be occupied by someone who requires life-saving treatment or surgery and who no jab could help. While some unvaccinated individuals are merely ignorant, others are deeply selfish.

Of course, in a free society, every adult has a right to refuse medical treatment, even if it could save their life, but it is clear to me that those who do refuse the vaccine should expect to face consequences. That's why, despite my instinctively liberal leanings, I firmly support vaccine passports.

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WOW...powerful stuff. No wonder so many of yous blame the unvaxxed, with reports like this one out there doing the rounds. Just look at that devastating language. The unvaccinated are surely deserving of their pariah status based on this?

But again, a careful sober look at the facts tell a different story. The Weekly Surveillance Reports never had the unvaccinated taking up more than 3% of total emergency care bed space at any one time. And they have never outnumbered the vaccinated. Not even close. And if those unvaxxed were vaccinated, who's to say a good portion of them wouldn't have ended up in hospital with Covid anyway? The data tells us the vaccinated requiring emergency-care outnumber the unvaccinated, after all.

The many are only in their 30s and 40s comment...looking at the data, there is about just as many in their 30s and 40s taking up emergency-care beds who are vaccinated. And as a total percentage of the population those who are vaccinated aged between 30-49 will barely constitute a majority (if at all). In terms of unvaccinated 30-49 year olds requiring emergency care, according to the official data, this group never get above 10% of total Covid patients.


So WTF is going on? So much pressure...to what end? Well, what it says on the tin...to vaccinate the unvaccinated.


Surely...surely this must arouse some suspicion...as we know the double-vaccinated will soon be classified as unvaccinated themselves. This pressure will be on many of you soon.
 
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Right me and my wife have had vaccines, her mother and father have had all they'res but are 83 and have breathing problems, do you crack on or isolate my missus goes around looking after them .its a feckin nightmare for me and my missus were a bit scared going for a meal bevy so on .missed drink with my mates boxing day because don't want to put family at risk ,when should we just crack on , frustrating

My mum’s in the same boat in regards to my grandad. She takes LFD tests regularly for school anyway and then takes them if she ever feels a bit off. She could take them every morning before she goes to see them but doesn’t. My grandad is fine with that so maybe ask when her parents want you two to do? I personally always test a day or two after a very social event just in case.
 
NHS is able to utilise up to 80,000 of its 140,000 total beds as ad-hoc emergency-care beds as and when required. The 6% figure holds (of which around 2% are unvaccinated).

What point are you trying to make?
My point is you don’t know what qualifies as an ICU nor do you understand the staff expectations, equipment, and tools associated with one. Of all your acute care beds about 2-3% are designated for intensive care. As of 3 weeks ago 25% of those were taken up with Covid patients. Not 6%.

 
My point is you don’t know what qualifies as an ICU nor do you understand the staff expectations, equipment, and tools associated with one. Of all your acute care beds about 2-3% are designated for intensive care. As of 3 weeks ago 25% of those were taken up with Covid patients. Not 6%.


Your link is a month out-of-date. What about now? Looking like around 750 (scroll down to final graph and filter for England), and on a downward trend.

More importantly: the actual quote is: "Of about 3,500 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) in England, about 900 were people with Covid.". You're implying 3,500 is the total ICU capacity. The total capacity is more like 5,000, plus the flexibility to use up to 80,000 NHS beds as level-2 emergency care if required.


So your statement: "Of all your acute care beds about 2-3% are designated for intensive care. 25% of those were taken up with Covid patients" is based on your wrong reading of the article you linked. What you should have said is: "25% of those already in care were taken up with Covid patients". And as it's a month out-of-date, the 25% is moot anyway.

Currently, accurate would be to say around 15% of ICU-capacity is taken up by Covid patients, and 6% of general bed-capacity.

We are in the middle of a peak-wave of the most hyped pandemic of the last 100 years. 15% ICU, or 6% total-bed...is pretty decent, all told.

Don't panic, in other words.


I'll remind you of your original comment:
Do some research if you need to understand the difference first.

And of your wording above:
My point is you don’t know what qualifies as an ICU nor do you understand the staff expectations, equipment, and tools associated with one.


It's not about me or you...we shouldn't be targeting each other with snidey remarks like you don't know / do some research etc. We should look at the data, and think about what it means. Together.

In my opinion: 15% ICU-capacity, or 6% total-bed capacity (around 2% of which are the unvaccinated) is a manageable decent ratio when considering these two key factors:
1) we're in the middle of a peak-wave of the most hyped pandemic of the last 100 years.
2) the usual excessive flu/cold cases the NHS would have to deal with in pre-pandemic times have been massively reduced due to the regular restrictions in place...basically cancelling out the beds the Covid cases are using up.


With this in mind, our attention should turn to why the politicians & media often hype up an alternative reality.

Let us know why you think that is.
 
And another important perspective: UK has around 1,500,000 active confirmed cases these last two weeks alone (and 1.5m between weeks 47-50)...yet only around 750 are currently in intensive care (both vaxxed & unvaxxed).

That's 0.05%. Then we consider how many unconfirmed cases there's been...

So less than 0.05% of those testing positive end up in ICU. Even if we take general hospitalisation (including quick same-day releases) we're talking around 7,500 total hospitalisations...so 0.5% of total positive cases. Vast majority will be old & at-risk folk.


Let's talk deaths...deaths in the last 28 days (so not daily, but over a whole month):

Unvaccinated: circa 750 (27% of all deaths)
Vaccinated: circa 2,000 (73% of all deaths)
Deaths aged 70+: circa 2,000 (73% of all deaths)
Deaths below 70: circa 750 (27% of all deaths)

From the deaths below 70 years of age, most of them were also vaccinated. And most of them will be at-risk patients (diabetics, heart diseased etc).

(source, page 38)


Let's talk vaccination status:

double-vaccinated: around 70%
booster: around 48%
not-vaccinated (incl. kids): around 30%


So the ratio of vaccinated Covid patients dying roughly mirrors the ratio who are vaccinated.


Some nice symmetry in those numbers....but what conclusions do we get from them?


My conclusion is that the vaccines/boosters offer only short-term hospitalisation protection (and no protection against infection/transmission), the unvaccinated are relatively-speaking absolutely not a burden, and on the whole the pandemic is quite manageable.

I'm interested in how yous see it differently, and based on what. And by extention if you feel the hype (including the almost-inevitable compulsory jabs) from the politicians & media is justified.


Back sometime in Jan. Happy new year :cheers:
 
What do you make of this one, coolio?


Choice Abstract quote:
---- "Our findings reveal a potential molecular mechanism by which the spike protein might impede adaptive immunity and underscore the potential side effects of full-length spike-based vaccines. Mechanistically, we found that the spike protein localizes in the nucleus and inhibits DNA damage repair by impeding key DNA repair protein BRCA1 and 53BP1 recruitment to the damage site. Our findings imply a potential side effect of the full–length spike–based vaccine. This work will improve the understanding of COVID–19 pathogenesis and provide new strategies for designing more efficient and safer vaccines." ----

Note: this paper has an Expression of Concern, and is due peer-review, but the Abstract appears related to comments made by the UK's Weekly Surveillance Report on the N-antibody levels of vaccinated folk: "N antibody levels are lower in individuals who acquire infection following 2 doses of vaccination." (page 46 here), as well as more general concerns as voiced in the New York Times piece I linked earlier: "a fourth shot in less than a year could actually weaken immunity...too many shots might cause a sort of immune system fatigue, compromising the body’s ability to fight the coronavirus."


I realise I'm being choice with my quotes...for there are no conclusions drawn and no-one behind these links are rubbishing the vaccines. But I am interpreting there being fair questions to be asked, and investigated upon. And that this relates to generally one of the reasons why the unvaccinated remain hesitant (i.e. unknown long-term effects of MRNA-jabs), and should thus not be demonised for their decision.

Here’s a choice quote from the line right before your quote.

Although no evidence has been published that SARS–CoV–2 can infect thymocytes or bone marrow lymphoid cells, our in vitro V(D)J reporter assay shows that the spike protein intensely impeded V(D)J recombination.

This Petri dish level theory. It’s not even remotely animal model data, let alone human data. If you are comfortable accepting this level of data, you should have no problem with vaccines that now have 20 months of data in humans.


and here’s your expression of concern….

We are issuing this expression of concern in consultation with the publisher to fulfil their reporting obligation regarding the publication [1] mentioned above.
One of the authors has raised concerns regarding the methodology employed in the study, the conclusions drawn and the insufficient consideration of laboratory staff and resources.



You’re seriously embarrassing yourself if this is evidence you are pulling to support your beliefs.
 
Around 70% of Covid-positives in hospital didn't end up there because of Covid, rather they caught it in the hospital...this is (or should be) huge news:




The Daily Mail is painful to read on desktop mode, but on Mobile with chrome it's a lot easier on the eye....and as rubbish as that site is for other stuff, its pandemic-reporting has been relatively decent.


the Telegraph have reported similar:


Quoting the Daily Mail and Allison Pearson. Ach jo :hayee:
 
Thanks, there's a book in there somewhere.


maybe...i'm preaching to a brick wall here. tho' I feel a change in the wind lately...more open scepticism in this thread than there used to be.

So happy to do my bit, however subliminally.
Discouraging people from taking free and safe treatments. Give yourself a medal. What next? Protest against seat belts as every RTA victim in hospital was wearing one?
 
This is the world they're pushing us into:











How the double-jabbed respond will decide how 2022 pans out.

This is so painful it's making my head hurt. If you got a flu vaccine in 2019, it's not going to be any use to you this flu season because the virus has mutated. 2 jabs are effective for alpha, delta, and so on, but are not so effective for omicron, which is why you need the additional vaccine. We've been in this for 2 years now. I can't believe quite how poorly informed people are after so long. Maybe read a bit less from dullards like Pearson and more from scientifically literate sources.
 
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