Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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How is lockdown going to do anything about this?
The middle bit of hospitalisations - not severe enough to die but not mild enough to not go to hospital even if vaccinated I'd imagine is the worry

Biden's speech today will surely put some sort of extra measures on the unvaccinated over there - the lead in seems to be focused on that
 
Had an instructive morning reading the Tory Press mouthpieces and looking at the anti-sage and anti-restriction narratives. The Daily Mail have rolled out a 'Professor' to argue his model is right and Sage are wrong.

Closer inspection reveals his back ground is in engineering risks and he's actually a 'visiting Professor' (an honorary post essentially) at Bristol Uni but doesn't look to have an actual real academic post. It's a bit like asking me to comment on, well, anything much. With a healthy dose of irony, continue I will...

The other line appears to be going after Sage for not modelling the effects of mild disease severity. The Spectator, Telegraph and latterly the Mail are pursuing this one. Whilst acknowledging that this is because Sage have been asked to look at graded severity of several situations (I.e. scenario planning) the focus remains on Sage as being the key decision makers. They're not- that's the government supported by the civil service. It's also the Govt and media who release and/or focus on the worst case scenario figures. All whilst proclaiming Sage use or produce dodgy data or science.Sure there are limitations on the data, but you work with what you have and factor that in.

For me that's really worrying. It's painting the very well qualified modellers / the science as being untrustworthy.

It isn't and they aren't - what I assume the government look to be doing is waiting for real world data to come in to map a trajectory against the modelled scenarios. A bit like a game of chicken. In the meantime we all get to stew a tad longer.

A high stakes game of holding one's nerve. Get it right and we get a relatively restriction free life and probable praise given so many folk are steaming mad at the prospectof a lockdown. It would indeed be nice. Get it wrong and you'll have those urging caution throwing mud and folk will still be steaming mad at another lockdown. Oh, you may see some human suffering too.

That's why I'm glad I'm not in charge of anything. Speaking as someone who struggles to remember to tie his shoe laces.

It would probably help if the media showed a bit of a range of the modelling rather than the worst case. I know that when I see higher numbers than last winter being predicted I sigh and then think it's not logical.

After the July reopening wasn't the actual death total lower than almost every model predicted? They can't even argue that the models were wrong on that occasion due to preventative measures.

I have seen Pagel suggesting today that the models for the current wave which are currently starting to look inaccurate are incorrect due to preventative measures. Less people are going to pubs and restaurants but the measures implemented by the government are very light so far.
 
The middle bit of hospitalisations - not severe enough to die but not mild enough to not go to hospital even if vaccinated I'd imagine is the worry

Biden's speech today will surely put some sort of extra measures on the unvaccinated over there - the lead in seems to be focused on that

Biden can't really do a whole lot as a lot of their health policies are managed at state level.
 
Wish people would get it right - austerity and the Tories killed the NHS years ago, not covid or dirty unvaccinated individuals taking up services that their taxes and national insurance have paid for.

There isn't a lack of beds, there's a lack of funding - there's a lack of training and retaining nurses, doctors, specialists etc.

I feel terribly sorry for those working in the NHS, trying to manage this with the slapshod support they have had from this government. Care for a clap anyone?

All this vitriol against unvax people bed blocking and spreading covid everywhere isn't helping - we should be targeting the real cause of the crisis that we are facing, the conservative party, not the people it affects or each other FFS!

Schools will be closed in the new year with homeschooling in place and even tighter restrictions and further loss or liberty - don't think otherwise.

No vaccinated people can't travel abroad? What's next, locked in our own boroughs/streets? Homes?

Johnson and the Tories have screwed the pooch constantly on covid, but I bet their own bank balances have swelled considerably since this all started, as have their rich doner chums - it was never about protecting health or the people and it still isn't, it's about money making.

Johnson didn't mind the bodies piling high in the streets and he still doesn't give a monkeys.

Johnson didn't care and partied while people couldn't see relatives as they were dying alone.

When and where does the buck stop? I know, lets blame the unvaccinated?!
 
Yeah great - business in total paralysis because the govt doesn’t have balls to step in one direction or the other.

But I’m sure if a general election was called tomorrow you’d have no problem voting for them.
woah hang on, I've never ever voted Tory in my life.

Every single election I could vote in, I've voted Labour - even when I don't really believe in the party because they're such a mess. So don't go making assumptions that make you out to be a prat.
 

Not sure what the tories are doing here.

Restrictions are coming either this side of Xmas or shortly after.

At least labour accept the situation for what it is.

Oh by the way I assume all these libertarian anti lockdowners posting here are going to be voting Tory because they are the only party that even vaguely support their views.

Under labour we’d be in a lockdown already.

…and bankrupt…….
 
Wish people would get it right - austerity and the Tories killed the NHS years ago, not covid or dirty unvaccinated individuals taking up services that their taxes and national insurance have paid for.

There isn't a lack of beds, there's a lack of funding - there's a lack of training and retaining nurses, doctors, specialists etc.

I feel terribly sorry for those working in the NHS, trying to manage this with the slapshod support they have had from this government. Care for a clap anyone?

All this vitriol against unvax people bed blocking and spreading covid everywhere isn't helping - we should be targeting the real cause of the crisis that we are facing, the conservative party, not the people it affects or each other FFS!

Schools will be closed in the new year with homeschooling in place and even tighter restrictions and further loss or liberty - don't think otherwise.

No vaccinated people can't travel abroad? What's next, locked in our own boroughs/streets? Homes?

Johnson and the Tories have screwed the pooch constantly on covid, but I bet their own bank balances have swelled considerably since this all started, as have their rich doner chums - it was never about protecting health or the people and it still isn't, it's about money making.

Johnson didn't mind the bodies piling high in the streets and he still doesn't give a monkeys.

Johnson didn't care and partied while people couldn't see relatives as they were dying alone.

When and where does the buck stop? I know, lets blame the unvaccinated?!

Best post in this thread in a long time. People turning on each other is what these parasites want to deflect from their failings.
 
woah hang on, I've never ever voted Tory in my life.

Every single election I could vote in, I've voted Labour - even when I don't really believe in the party because they're such a mess. So don't go making assumptions that make you out to be a prat.
So your hard anti lockdown approach would go the wayside in an election - fine.

I’ve voted conservative and labour in the past and I’ll be voting labour this time because I believe the govts position is not helping business nor is it helping reduce cases.
 
How is lockdown going to do anything about this?

The general logic is that when fewer people are in contact with each other, say at stores/pubs/restaurants, work, transit stations, the number of new cases drops. In this chart below, you can see new cases with respect to mobility data: transit stations, retail/recreation (pubs/restaurants/movie theatres), and work. The dips (in orange) correspond to when people were at home and not working (Memorial day, Thanksgiving, etc.). The spikes (in black) correspond to people going out to shops/pubs/restaurants; for example the tall black spike (on right) is "black friday" in the US, a major shopping day for retailers. The grey "shadow spikes" is new cases, and you can see a rough correspondence between black spikes (or sustained elevation of black), when people were out and about, and a few days later an increase in the grey "spikes."

1640097020223.png
 
Still not confirmed but there are signs that the incubation period for Omicron is less than Delta which will complicate the modeling and testing at the very least.
It certainly might not seem like it given the pandemic mayhem we’ve had, but the original form of SARS-CoV-2 was a bit of a slowpoke. After infiltrating our bodies, the virus would typically brew for about five or six days beforesymptoms kicked in. In the many months since that now-defunct version of the virus emerged, new variants have arrived to speed the timeline up. Estimates for this exposure-to-symptom gap, called the incubation period, clocked in at about five days for Alpha and four days for Delta. Now word has it that the newest kid on the pandemic block, Omicron, may have ratcheted it down to as little as three.
 
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