Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Woolly Blue]

fwiw, I posted the following on TEF earlier ...



There are early indications that London infections might have just about peaked though.

That has to be caveated by things like data lag and a possibility that testing in the area might be getting close to capacity, which would make the numbers look better than what they really are, but, even so, if you take the graph at face value, it looks hopeful. But, even if it's a real effect, it would take a week or two for admissions to start dropping.



Kindly ignore the text on the first tab, it's not referring to the Frank that used to be on here, though it may well be true.

 

[BlueToff]

Latest Denmark modelling, among their variables they include two severity scenarios 1) an Omicron hospitalization risk the same as Delta 2) an Omicron hospitalization risk half that of Delta.

https://www.ssi.dk/-/media/cdn/files/covid19/scenarios-for-infections-and-new-admissions-caused-by-the-omicron-variant_201221.pdf

Great stuff legs will try have a read in a bit, good to see how they’re categorising it

 

[BlueToff]

fwiw, I posted the following on TEF earlier ...



There are early indications that London infections might have just about peaked though.

That has to be caveated by things like data lag and a possibility that testing in the area might be getting close to capacity, which would make the numbers look better than what they really are, but, even so, if you take the graph at face value, it looks hopeful. But, even if it's a real effect, it would take a week or two for admissions to start dropping.

View attachment 149049

Kindly ignore the text on the first tab, it's not referring to the Frank that used to be on here, though it may well be true.

Hello mate, long time no see.

That’s good to see, hopefully stays that way. On hospital admissions at least though, we’re probably a few days away from seeing any impact from Omicron on that I think

Edit: tbf that last bit is based on our world in data which might be a few days behind

 

[BlueStevie35]

Well my family plans have been altered slightly as my unvaccinated younger cousin has tested positive meaning we won’t get to see her or my middle niece on Christmas Day, also means 2 less plates for her sister to dish up and may mean her and her husband and my nephews coming to mine instead of us going to theirs in the evening

 

[tsubaki]

By “the unvaccinated”, you mean the people that are in hospital and unvaccinated? So the vulnerable who are unvaccinated? We might be getting somewhere here.

I mean the people in (or who would need to be admitted to) hospital, with COVID, who are not vaccinated against COVID.

 

[MikeH72]

I mean the people in (or who would need to be admitted to) hospital, with COVID, who are not vaccinated against COVID.

I agree that those vulnerable people really should be vaccinated.

 

[Woolly Blue]

Hello mate, long time no see.

That’s good to see, hopefully stays that way. On hospital admissions at least though, we’re probably a few days away from seeing any impact from Omicron on that I think

Edit: tbf that last bit is based on our world in data which might be a few days behind

If cases really are dropping in London, or at least, near their peak, then it'll be a week or two before that gets reflected in admissions.

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic ( though people will still die, and we shouldn't forget that ).

London is one of the worst areas in the country for vaccination rates, so it may well be harder hit than other areas ( Against that, it's probably a lower age profile ).

The country as a whole, has high levels of antibodies. As well as antibodies from vaccination , roughly 25% of adults have antibodies from infection ( obviously there'll be an overlap with many who have antibodies from both ) Both of those mean there'll almost certainly be an even higher level of cellular immunity in the country.

Personally, I think the main reason to impose further restrictions may be as much logistical as health, in that you can't easily run essential services if large numbers are sick and/or isolating.

 

[LinekersLegs]

If cases really are dropping in London, or at least, near their peak, then it'll be a week or two before that gets reflected in admissions.

There are reasons to be cautiously optimistic ( though people will still die, and we shouldn't forget that ).

London is one of the worst areas in the country for vaccination rates, so it may well be harder hit than other areas ( Against that, it's probably a lower age profile ).

The country as a whole, has high levels of antibodies. As well as antibodies from vaccination , roughly 25% of adults have antibodies from infection ( obviously there'll be an overlap with many who have antibodies from both ) Both of those mean there'll almost certainly be an even higher level of cellular immunity in the country.

Personally, I think the main reason to impose further restrictions may be as much logistical as health, in that you can't easily run essential services if large numbers are sick and/or isolating.

And given it is hitting every emergency group you have less flexibility in shifting workload between them.

Hundreds off work ill at leading London hospital trust as Omicron cases surge

Non-essential services cancelled and staff redeployed to intensive care to treat influx of Covid admissions

www.theguardian.com

There were similar issues with the London fire brigade, with almost 10% of operational firefighters either having tested positive or self-isolating, according to LFB statistics for Thursday. The LFB said 141 firefighters had tested positive and 283 were self-isolating.

The FBU London regional secretary, Jon Lambe, said: “The new Omicron variant is having a devastating impact on the London fire brigade.” According to London fire brigade statistics, 40 fire engines were unavailable for the day and night shifts on Thursday. There are 142 fire engines in London.

 

[BlueToff]

Thread

 

[maccavennie]

Thread

Is it good news or bad news mate? I see all the coloured lines and I haven't got a clue what's going on most of the time lol

 

[Prevenger17]

And yet they are acting as if it will definitively be more severe. We’ll see in the coming days if there is a start of a rise on the hospitalisations. As of yet, it’s all up in the air. But there hasn’t been, yet, in other countries that are a bit further ahead of us.

So is that risk worth shutting the country down for?

I’m not saying it definitely isn’t by the way, I’m saying they should wait and see a few days before making such a huge call and maybe they should start using actual data from other countries rather than going on worst-case scenarios?

I don’t see what locking down this time next week does when Omicron is already hugely prevalent. And if they do lockdown, it has to be that all businesses are supported and there is a clear date out as quickly as possible.

Millions of people with three jabs, it’s ‘kin ridiculous

You haven't actually shut down so maybe just relax? You have no idea what's going on, you don't have access to all the data and, even if you did, you would have no idea how to interpret it. I honestly don't know what you get out of spooging misery all over this thread every day

 

[Lee Smith]

Some seemingly positive news?

~12:10 in for UK hospitalisation break down

 

[RAFUH]

Voluntarily unvaccinated people should have no place in this society.

Personally I'd be happy if they shuffled off this mortal coil sharpish so we can get on with our lives.

While there‘s no moderating in CA, there are still some rules that can’t be crossed.
This is damn close.

 

[Diogenes the Cynic]

While there‘s no moderating in CA, there are still some rules that can’t be crossed.
This is damn close.

Delete it then please, it seems it has upset some people.

I'll be taking a voluntary break from here anyway i think.

Much obliged.

 

[BlueToff]

You haven't actually shut down so maybe just relax? You have no idea what's going on, you don't have access to all the data and, even if you did, you would have no idea how to interpret it. I honestly don't know what you get out of spooging misery all over this thread every day

Alright fair do's.

I do actually like the discourse, even if it's just helpful to have somewhere to vent. Said before, nothing anyone says in here has any impact on it all but it doesn't stop anyone else. We probably all have a better idea than our blundering idiot leaders, that's the issue.