Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Agreed mate, the media's lack of concern for mental wellbeing while pushing their agendas is a source of much consternation for me.

Someone will probably comment on this saying suicides are down so everything is fine. The reality is for most people lockdowns have done a lot of damage.

Personally I won't be going to parties or anything but if I need to see other vaccinated family members in January why shouldn't I?
 
My apologies if this has been posted, page 23 of government document.View attachment 149009
Sorry @Twinkletoes123 but that person’s summary of the report is full of errors.

For reference here are the relevant section from the report.
Figure 6 shows monthly categorised Roche S levels in N-antibody negative individuals by age group. Almost all tested S-antibody negative during December. In the 3 oldest age groups, the impact of first vaccine dose, then second vaccine dose, can be seen from December through June, as the profile of population antibody levels increases. Then from June through September the profile of antibody levels in these cohorts gradually decreases, consistent with waning. During October there is a small increase in percentage of donors with high antibody levels of 1000+ AU/ml for the 70 to 84 age group only, following the initiation of the booster programme. The higher profile of antibody levels in the youngest age group, is likely a result of a combination of factors including stronger immune responses in younger individuals and the higher antibody levels produced after mRNA vaccination.
This first section points out that antibodies, particularly in the elderly, have gradually waned over time. This has been clearly communicated since being first identified in Israel and was the whole rationale for the boosters (even prior to Omicron) which not only boost the antibody levels back up to where they were but increase them. Here is the very large UK study in boosters https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext and one from the US about the higher antibody levels than the first two vaccinations https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/11/boosters-increase-protection-over-full-vaccine-dose/ . The text itself points out the increase in the older groups antibody levels as the booster program began (this report is from Octover)

The second section is here where they talk about those who have experienced past infection and as expected those who have an infection also produce antibodies. However they don’t split out those who only have antibodies from an infection and, givem vaccine coverage rates in the UK a lot of these results will come people like @maccavennie who was infected then vaccinated/boosted and @BlueToff who had 1 vaccination and then infected and then 2nd vaccination. They have hybrid immunity which (as their bodies have essentially seen the virus multiple times over a period of time) have very good antibodies.

Figure 7 shows categorised Roche S levels in N-antibody positive individuals, those likely to have experienced past infection. Pre-vaccination antibody levels will be influenced by time since infection, variant and severity of infection, as well as personal factors such as underlying health conditions and age. At the start of the vaccination rollout in December antibody levels typically sat within the range of 0.8 to 1000 AU/ml, after vaccination antibody levels typically exceed 1000 AU/ml. Comparing Figure 6 with Figure 7, the overall higher profile of antibody levels in those who have experienced past infection is evident; both vaccination post infection and breakthrough infection following vaccination are expected to boost existing antibody levels.
Unfortunately the antibodies acquired from an infection immunity also wanes, it is the reason that places like Manaus in Brazil had two awful waves and India was hit hard by Delta. You can also see it in South Africa recently with Omicron - a lot of the reinfections were people who had only just been infected during their Delta wave.
An analysis of routine surveillance data from South Africa from March 2020 till Nov. 27 showed the "reinfection risk profile of Omicron is substantially higher than that associated with the Beta and Delta variants during the second and third waves," NICD said in the statement on Thursday.

An increase of reinfections rather than new infections would be an indication the new variant has developed the ability to evade natural immunity from previous infection, it said.

Juliet Pulliam, director of SACEMA and the author of the pre-print paper, said in her article that Omicron's pattern is likely to be established across all provinces of South Africa by early to mid-December, NICD said.
 
Sorry @Twinkletoes123 but that person’s summary of the report is full of errors.

For reference here are the relevant section from the report.

This first section points out that antibodies, particularly in the elderly, have gradually waned over time. This has been clearly communicated since being first identified in Israel and was the whole rationale for the boosters (even prior to Omicron) which not only boost the antibody levels back up to where they were but increase them. Here is the very large UK study in boosters https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext and one from the US about the higher antibody levels than the first two vaccinations https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2021/11/boosters-increase-protection-over-full-vaccine-dose/ . The text itself points out the increase in the older groups antibody levels as the booster program began (this report is from Octover)

The second section is here where they talk about those who have experienced past infection and as expected those who have an infection also produce antibodies. However they don’t split out those who only have antibodies from an infection and, givem vaccine coverage rates in the UK a lot of these results will come people like @maccavennie who was infected then vaccinated/boosted and @BlueToff who had 1 vaccination and then infected and then 2nd vaccination. They have hybrid immunity which (as their bodies have essentially seen the virus multiple times over a period of time) have very good antibodies.


Unfortunately the antibodies acquired from an infection immunity also wanes, it is the reason that places like Manaus in Brazil had two awful waves and India was hit hard by Delta. You can also see it in South Africa recently with Omicron - a lot of the reinfections were people who had only just been infected during their Delta wave.
An analysis of routine surveillance data from South Africa from March 2020 till Nov. 27 showed the "reinfection risk profile of Omicron is substantially higher than that associated with the Beta and Delta variants during the second and third waves," NICD said in the statement on Thursday.

An increase of reinfections rather than new infections would be an indication the new variant has developed the ability to evade natural immunity from previous infection, it said.

Juliet Pulliam, director of SACEMA and the author of the pre-print paper, said in her article that Omicron's pattern is likely to be established across all provinces of South Africa by early to mid-December, NICD said.
and my booster to come... superhuman :D
 
The lack of clarity over businesses and people's plans for what is just one week away is shocking. Do they honestly think a 23rd press conference will make the decision they've already made more popular?
I don't think it's about popularity. BJ definitely does not want another lockdown of any kind.

SAGE are insisting the modelling is bad, and I'd tend to trust them still over the buffoons in charge. But, this is a huge decision and we need to know what exactly they are basing the severity on, surely?
 
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