Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Harryflashman]

The majority of deaths tend to be in obese and/or old people. That's mainly why most countries in Africa have coped quite well throughout the pandemic as the average age of death in a lot of African countries is around 50.

The difference in the UK is we have a very old and unfit population which tends to be much more likely to be impacted. It's hard to work out how bad the impact will be at this stage as we do have a large percentage vaccinated too.

I do get that but nearly 8 million people are immuno compromised and over 11 m are living in townships which would certainly facilitate the spread and are a long way from what many live in In This country .

 

[BlueToff]

I read an article on that and they based those calculations on the new variant having the same death percentage as the old variant I believe?

yes, like I said I think they've gone way overboard but I do get that approach as the real-world data wasn't there when they produced the report.

But it's what the government are going off atm.

They need to start taking the SA data, if it carries on like this, as genuine evidence. But I do understand them for now hedging their best with it.

 

[Amw79]

yep, mainly

I kind of get the NHS comment but I saw the 'best case scenario' that the London College of Tropical Medicine (or something like that) put and between now and April they're anticipating 175,000 hospital admissions. Their worst-case is 500,000. I think that's just based on how transmissible this thing is. They too are going overboard, but the 175k admissions was based on 20.1 million people in the UK getting Omicron, with the current level of protection (not counting boosters). I don't think any health service would not struggle there if that peak comes fast and hard which it could do....

But I think, as I said, they're going overboard. If the vaccine boosters work against symptoms (which they do up to 75%)/natural immunity and two doses already works against serious illness (which it does), we shouldn't get anywhere near those numbers, even if 20m people do get infected, which seems very likely at this stage.

Interesting. Yeah, I don’t think the gov are trying to stop the spread, rather they’re simply trying to slow it. Think there’s an acceptance that Omicron will spread through population, but we’re back to the March 2020 tactic of ‘flatten the curve’.

 

[BlueToff]

Definitely an up tick in this line of thinking.

tbf though when you get things like what the EU are doing then I half don't blame people (and I'm sure they'll introduce a mandate here too soon).

It's not right.

 

[BlueToff]

Interesting. Yeah, I don’t think the gov are trying to stop the spread, rather they’re simply trying to slow it. Think there’s an acceptance that Omicron will spread through population, but we’re back to the March 2020 tactic of ‘flatten the curve’.

yeah exactly, but in this case because it is so transmissable then they can't do much other than offer as much protection as possible to people.

And I think this is where it becomes clear they must in some way be using the SA data. Because if they hadn't, then surely they'd have fully panicked by now?

They must be looking at SA numbers, and at least doing some modelling on that data staying as is and being correct (i.e. not many people at all getting seriously ill enough to even need hospital).

Then you have other factors of course like the UK being in winter etc

 

[mill]

tbf though when you get things like what the EU are doing then I half don't blame people (and I'm sure they'll introduce a mandate here too soon).

It's not right.

I don’t agree with vaccine mandates but that doesn’t mean I’m going to turn into some conspiracy theorist.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Suits you sirs...

View attachment 148342

Think would help if they actually explained that their political economic choices have goosed the NHS and is now failing in its basics duties. Now more people will die before their time because a third of serious illness is picked up in those routine appointments that are now being cancelled to accommodate the latest vaccination promise.

That was another thing from today. Some vaccination centres could open 24 hours in order to vaccinate as many as possible.

Which raises two questions

1. Who is staffing them for 24 hours?

2. How many people do they expect to go for their jab at like 2/3am?

 

[TN Toffee]

tbf though when you get things like what the EU are doing then I half don't blame people (and I'm sure they'll introduce a mandate here too soon).

It's not right.

I know it won’t ever happen, but it seems like the answer would simply be to move forward with a strategy that, barring a genuine medical exemption, unvaccinated people needing medical treatment for COVID go to the back of the line. If the capacity is there to treat them, great. If not, then they have nobody to blame but themselves. Would also be helped in the US by insurance companies changing their policies such that they won’t pay out for COVID related hospitalizations.

 

[Ghost Rider]

and it probably will be. Any government saying they can't yet know the severity of Omicron is hedging their bets, frankly.

Yes, it is very early, but we have a lot of data from South Africa where there are fewer than 6,000 people in hospital from COVID, and below 1,000 needing higher care, from a population of 59 million. There's below 200 on ventilators, and not of all of these patients even went into hospital for COVID, around 70% in fact in total of the 5,000-odd were said to be incidental findings (that doesn't mean COVID hasn't made them sick though, it just means that they didn't initially go in for COVID).

A largely unvaccinated population, whose immunity is more likely at this stage to come from natural infection (most of the UK's immunity is from vaccination).

So the real world data is there, two weeks on from this variant being discovered. However, the worry is if Omicron rips through completely, then because it is so transmissible, then even 1 or 2% hospitalisation rate of 20 million people in the UK, let's say, is a lot of hospitalisations isn't it.

The thing is , the more you have vaccinated the lower the impact. We have 50 million vaccinated , 20 million boosted.

So I ask the same question I have before. Who are the ones going into hospital? All you have left is unvaccinated and they make up the majority of the hospital cases for months now. So all have antibodies which reduce the impact of covid again.

There isn't that many people left at this point via choice or otherwise.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

That was another thing from today. Some vaccination centres could open 24 hours in order to vaccinate as many as possible.

Which raises two questions

1. Who is staffing them for 24 hours?

2. How many people do they expect to go for their jab at like 2/3am?

1. Vast majority of the volunteering pool have gone back to work now... So it will be staff from other areas which means more cancelled delayed routine appointments.

2. Staggering home from the Christmas parties.

 

[TN Toffee]

That was another thing from today. Some vaccination centres could open 24 hours in order to vaccinate as many as possible.

Which raises two questions

1. Who is staffing them for 24 hours?

2. How many people do they expect to go for their jab at like 2/3am?

Maybe not a lot, but that would be a genuine help for people who work night shift and trying to go get it done during bankers hours disrupts their sleep schedule. It’s probably a minor inconvenience, but removing even small obstacles like that has been shown to help get the numbers up.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Maybe not a lot, but that would be a genuine help for people who work night shift and trying to go get it done during bankers hours disrupts their sleep schedule. It’s probably a minor inconvenience, but removing even small obstacles like that has been shown to help get the numbers up.

But not by much though to justify it. It's the nightingale hospitals all over again, probably with the same issues as before. The demand won't be there , especially if you have a 7 day service already with long hours.

It's overworking these vaccination staff who have never been rewarded for their efforts.

 

[BlueToff]

The thing is , the more you have vaccinated the lower the impact. We have 50 million vaccinated , 20 million boosted.

So I ask the same question I have before. Who are the ones going into hospital? All you have left is unvaccinated and they make up the majority of the hospital cases for months now. So all have antibodies which reduce the impact of covid again.

There isn't that many people left at this point via choice or otherwise.

Does that make a difference though? If people are going to hospital, they need treatment

 

[tsubaki]

I don't know what systematic way you mean when this thing has an R rate of 4 though?

You can't contain that without having thousands isolating at once and that cripples things.

Again. if it’s reproducing that fast you are going to have thousands isolating anyway. What’s to prevent them catching it if the people with it are still in circulation until they produce a positive test?

 

[BlueToff]

Again. if it’s reproducing that fast you are going to have thousands isolating anyway. What’s to prevent them catching it if the people with it are still in circulation until they produce a positive test?

Yes, okay... but they're saying the lateral flows do work with this thing, and the PCRs...

Apparently - and this is from the Dr who discovered Omicron - lateral flows will pick up the infection from day 2, usually for 4-5 days from then on until the patient is no longer infectious.

So it's that first day which is the issue. But by the time anyone is judged to be a contact of someone it could already be into the second day, as unfortunately even with your ideal system there is no way to immediately identify if someone has COVID if they are asymptomatic.

I don't know what solution you're wanting and why you're so convinced it would work?

If someone is a contact, they'll have to go and get tested, and then daily test using the lateral flows? Surely that has to be how we do this?