Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Ghost Rider]

69 year old South African President has covid apparantly.

They have said mild symptoms

 

[BlueToff]

A lad I know works in an office with 11 other people. 10 of them caught the new variant from being in the same office for 1 day. Almost 100% transmission rate.

Yep it's very very infectious.

Good thing is if they're vaccinated/naturally immune they're likely to be fine.

The data tha they're using to put out the third dose is that with a booster (but it could well be with a vaccine recently in your system (i.e. within a month or so) that it's 75% of people will get no symptoms at all.

 

[Deleted member 48881]

69 year old

 

[neil999]

One of the reasons Omicron is being hyped so hard, despite actually quite encouraging preliminary data, is that it provides all of the 'authorities' who'll benefit most from another round of vaccination, the opportunity to strip the double-jabbed of their fully vaccinated status.

They'll keep jabbing people over the coming months, potentially four or five times until infections start to naturally wain in the Spring anyway, and then we'll hear all about how successful another few rounds of vaccinations have been.

It's so obvious. I'd laugh if thousands of people won't be injuried (or worse) again in the process.

Borderline conspiracy theory this....

 

[BlueToff]

69 year old South African President has covid apparantly.

They have said mild symptoms

and it probably will be. Any government saying they can't yet know the severity of Omicron is hedging their bets, frankly.

Yes, it is very early, but we have a lot of data from South Africa where there are fewer than 6,000 people in hospital from COVID, and below 1,000 needing higher care, from a population of 59 million. There's below 200 on ventilators, and not of all of these patients even went into hospital for COVID, around 70% in fact in total of the 5,000-odd were said to be incidental findings (that doesn't mean COVID hasn't made them sick though, it just means that they didn't initially go in for COVID).

A largely unvaccinated population, whose immunity is more likely at this stage to come from natural infection (most of the UK's immunity is from vaccination).

So the real world data is there, two weeks on from this variant being discovered. However, the worry is if Omicron rips through completely, then because it is so transmissible, then even 1 or 2% hospitalisation rate of 20 million people in the UK, let's say, is a lot of hospitalisations isn't it.

 

[neil999]

Why would any government want to hurt people through vaccinations mate?

I mean look, I think it's ridiculous with all this enforced stuff and now what the EU are doing, but I also don't think it's some conspiracy.

Very worrying that this train of thought is becoming mainstream....

 

[grandjoeblue]

Yep it's very very infectious.

Good thing is if they're vaccinated/naturally immune they're likely to be fine.

The data tha they're using to put out the third dose is that with a booster (but it could well be with a vaccine recently in your system (i.e. within a month or so) that it's 75% of people will get no symptoms at all.

Makes me wonder how effective the measures will be in places like cinemas etc where you can take your mask off to eat or drink. Saying that even with a mask they think you can catch the old variant in 15 minutes conversation if you're both masked so with this new one it might be somewhere around 5/10 minutes?

I just can't see how they're going to stop this from going through everyone. You'd need a lockdown like the first one with schools closed but I can't see that happening.

 

[Amw79]

and it probably will be. Any government saying they can't yet know the severity of Omicron is hedging their bets, frankly.

Yes, it is very early, but we have a lot of data from South Africa where there are fewer than 6,000 people in hospital from COVID, and below 1,000 needing higher care, from a population of 59 million. There's below 200 on ventilators, and not of all of these patients even went into hospital for COVID, around 70% in fact in total of the 5,000-odd were said to be incidental findings (that doesn't mean COVID hasn't made them sick though, it just means that they didn't initially go in for COVID).

A largely unvaccinated population, whose immunity is more likely at this stage to come from natural infection (most of the UK's immunity is from vaccination).

So the real world data is there, two weeks on from this variant being discovered. However, the worry is if Omicron rips through completely, then because it is so transmissible, then even 1 or 2% hospitalisation rate of 20 million people in the UK, let's say, is a lot of hospitalisations isn't it.

Think this sounds about right. The hedging of bets is likely down to difference in ages in populations of SA and UK, and fact that although we have a large vaccinated population, a lot of that is from AZ jab, which doesn’t seem to stand up as well, plus the waning immunity from those who had jabs 6 months ago.

Seems it’s the transmissibility which is the main concern. A better funded NHS which didn’t always run at close to 100% capacity, would probably render this wave entirely manageable. But seemingly there’s no political will to do that.

 

[BlueToff]

Makes me wonder how effective the measures will be in places like cinemas etc where you can take your mask off to eat or drink. Saying that even with a mask they think you can catch the old variant in 15 minutes conversation if you're both masked so with this new one it might be somewhere around 5/10 minutes?

I just can't see how they're going to stop this from going through everyone. You'd need a lockdown like the first one with schools closed but I can't see that happening.

Masks are really nothing more than a plaster mate.

This new variant is airborne for longer than any of the others. Wearing a mask isn't gonna help much

The worry with lockdown is that they do it off case numbers alone, even hospitalisations... it'll all be too late by then anyway. I said a few weeks ago if they'd really have been worried they should have gone into snap lockdown. Now I think that's awful and it's not what I wanted but that would have been the only way to completely stop it. However, given how transmissible Omicron is, it's doubtful even lockdown would have solved much.

We really need, with this variant, to be determining how many people are needing serious care to react in terms of restrictions, but I do also think it's better to be safe than sorry in these early stages. But the data is there from South Africa and so far it is consistent and as promising as it could be given the circumstances in terms of serious illness.

They should also be instructing people to eat well, get plenty of exercise and fresh air and all that jazz, to keep healthy. Not just rely on vaccines.

 

[Harryflashman]

South Africa has nearly 12 min people in townships , about 7m living with with hiv and a vaccination rate of about 30% . You’d definitely expect to see deaths and hospitalisation rates of concern by now .

I appreciate its a younger population and that its summer there but I’m definitely struggling extrapolate what’s happened there to see where they see our predicted hospitalisation numbers come from .

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Javvid is out today with the latest nonsense update.



I mean the people have to die first before they can be a covid death right? Am I reading that wrong? Reads to me 10 in hospital that aren't dead but there is a lag between infection and death, so we have to wait for the lag whilst they are still alive and potentially are or aren't severely ill?



Why does it automatically mean an increased number of hospitalisations if it is less severe? Isn't that the opposite? Less severe things normally have less severe outcomes, not more of them.



This was said before the mention of the varient. So is it fair to say we are being lied to now? Because 2 jabs was enough when we all got them, now we need that third, context here being this is for people really who recently got the second jab , not the ones like me jabbed months ago.



Not seen before? So the start of the pandemic where despite a lockdown the virus was spreading to potentially millions with thousands of admissions is the same as 540 cases in a week? What?

Lies Lies Lies fear fear fear they cannot help themselves.

Suits you sirs...



Think would help if they actually explained that their political economic choices have goosed the NHS and is now failing in its basics duties. Now more people will die before their time because a third of serious illness is picked up in those routine appointments that are now being cancelled to accommodate the latest vaccination promise.

 

[BlueToff]

Think this sounds about right. The hedging of bets is likely down to difference in ages in populations of SA and UK, and fact that although we have a large vaccinated population, a lot of that is from AZ jab, which doesn’t seem to stand up as well, plus the waning immunity from those who had jabs 6 months ago.

Seems it’s the transmissibility which is the main concern. A better funded NHS which didn’t always run at close to 100% capacity, would probably render this wave entirely manageable. But seemingly there’s no political will to do that.

yep, mainly

I kind of get the NHS comment but I saw the 'best case scenario' that the London College of Tropical Medicine (or something like that) put and between now and April they're anticipating 175,000 hospital admissions. Their worst-case is 500,000. I think that's just based on how transmissible this thing is. They too are going overboard, but the 175k admissions was based on 20.1 million people in the UK getting Omicron, with the current level of protection (not counting boosters). I don't think any health service would not struggle there if that peak comes fast and hard which it could do....

But I think, as I said, they're going overboard. If the vaccine boosters work against symptoms (which they do up to 75%)/natural immunity and two doses already works against serious illness (which it does), we shouldn't get anywhere near those numbers, even if 20m people do get infected, which seems very likely at this stage.

 

[grandjoeblue]

South Africa has nearly 12 min people in townships , about 7m living with with hiv and a vaccination rate of about 30% . You’d definitely expect to see deaths and hospitalisation rates of concern by now .

I appreciate its a younger population and that its summer there but I’m definitely struggling extrapolate what’s happened there to see where they see our predicted hospitalisation numbers come from .

The majority of deaths tend to be in obese and/or old people. That's mainly why most countries in Africa have coped quite well throughout the pandemic as the average age of death in a lot of African countries is around 50.

The difference in the UK is we have a very old and unfit population which tends to be much more likely to be impacted. It's hard to work out how bad the impact will be at this stage as we do have a large percentage vaccinated too.

 

[mill]

Very worrying that this train of thought is becoming mainstream....

Definitely an up tick in this line of thinking.

 

[grandjoeblue]

yep, mainly

I kind of get the NHS comment but I saw the 'best case scenario' that the London College of Tropical Medicine (or something like that) put and between now and April they're anticipating 175,000 hospital admissions. Their worst-case is 500,000. I think that's just based on how transmissible this thing is. They too are going overboard, but the 175k admissions was based on 20.1 million people in the UK getting Omicron, with the current level of protection (not counting boosters). I don't think any health service would not struggle there if that peak comes fast and hard which it could do....

But I think, as I said, they're going overboard. If the vaccine boosters work against symptoms (which they do up to 75%)/natural immunity and two doses already works against serious illness (which it does), we shouldn't get anywhere near those numbers, even if 20m people do get infected, which seems very likely at this stage.

I read an article on that and they based those calculations on the new variant having the same death percentage as the old variant I believe?