Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[JoeLovell]

With all this talk of such a short doubling time - has anyone tried to look forward even a month or two? The one and only scenario I can see if its as transmissible as they say is that we will be in harsh lockdown until its essentially been eliminated via a variant vaccine, which may be more than one dose. Even if its mild, I doubt we'll ever get the chance to properly find out. Any easing and it'd spread so fast. Now I'm sceptical of these permanent doubling times of a couple of days myself.

I think we're in the denial phase again. I also think there'll be a press conference announcing lockdown some time before Friday, perhaps much earlier.

We're back to March 2020- they know there'll be a lockdown, we know there'll be a lockdown, so any delay is pretty pointless and makes it last longer in the end.

But this time I’d imagine that half of the country will likely refuse to obey the lockdown

 

[grandjoeblue]

But this time I’d imagine that half of the country will likely refuse to obey the lockdown

Thing is you can't go to a pub or restaurant that's forced to close. I think people will still mix, I'll certainly see my family if they try to do a lockdown but you sort of have to abide by lockdown to an extent as it reduces your options.

 

[MikeH72]

With all this talk of such a short doubling time - has anyone tried to look forward even a month or two? The one and only scenario I can see if its as transmissible as they say is that we will be in harsh lockdown until its essentially been eliminated via a variant vaccine, which may be more than one dose. Even if its mild, I doubt we'll ever get the chance to properly find out. Any easing and it'd spread so fast. Now I'm sceptical of these permanent doubling times of a couple of days myself.

I think we're in the denial phase again. I also think there'll be a press conference announcing lockdown some time before Friday, perhaps much earlier.

We're back to March 2020- they know there'll be a lockdown, we know there'll be a lockdown, so any delay is pretty pointless and makes it last longer in the end.

Another lockdown will finish this government off once and for all. The public have had enough and will make that abundantly clear. Hope businesses stick a middle finger up to them and refuse to close because they’ll be supported by the vast vast majority.

 

[Harryflashman]

Another lockdown will finish this government off once and for all. The public have had enough and will make that abundantly clear. Hope businesses stick a middle finger up to them and refuse to close because they’ll be supported by the vast vast majority.

It’s alright saying that mate , risking massive fines and nobody coming anyway means its hardly worth that risk for them is it ? Already Never mind that Scottish report above Speak to people in hospitality, parties are having 40/50% attendance and that’s in Liverpool a traditional ‘not that bothered ‘ city .

The damage is already happening , I get if its public health reasons then ok but this is stealth and it feels frustrating.

 

[peteblue]

Under 5,000 people in the entirety of South Africa have been in hospital with COVID/Omicron (which is 90% dominant) this past week... Under 1,000 in need of higher care. 70% of cases weren't even people who went in complaining of COVID, they were people found to have COVID when they went into hospital.

Oh shock, it's Neil Ferguson again. The bloke who has been quite literally wrong about everything.

and another one…..how many people have died from this again…..

Experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have said "non-pharmaceutical interventions", such as lockdown, may be needed to control the spread of omicron and prevent hospital admissions reaching an unsustainable peak.

In their research paper, scientists assumed omicron causes the same severity of illness as delta, but did not look at the impact of measures such as mass testing to control its spread.

They projected that hospital admissions could reach anywhere between 175,000 to 492,000 between December 1 this year and April 30, 2022, while deaths could range from 24,700 to 74,800.

The paper read: "These results suggest that omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England.

"The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021."

 

[COYBL25]

and another one…..how many people have died from this again…..

Experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have said "non-pharmaceutical interventions", such as lockdown, may be needed to control the spread of omicron and prevent hospital admissions reaching an unsustainable peak.

In their research paper, scientists assumed omicron causes the same severity of illness as delta, but did not look at the impact of measures such as mass testing to control its spread.

They projected that hospital admissions could reach anywhere between 175,000 to 492,000 between December 1 this year and April 30, 2022, while deaths could range from 24,700 to 74,800.

The paper read: "These results suggest that omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England.

"The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021."

Yet, they haven`t got one single prediction right, not one.

 

[NorthernBlue]

Remember when Sajid Javid came is as ‘Mr no more lockdowns’. What a colossal band of f**kwits they all are.

 

[Ghost Rider]

So we need to get jabbed for life to go back to normal.

Then we needed to be jabbed again to keep our protection levels up.

We were told the only people getting covid and going into hospital was majority unvaccinated.

Now they are saying even with jabs , we could still see thousands of deaths? Of who exactly? Who are these further 75000 people in the next 5 months? Figuratively, not literally.

I did notice that the headlines for this story was on the top end of the model and not the bottom end, because you know, those numbers are bigger at the top.

 

[BlueToff]

and another one…..how many people have died from this again…..

Experts from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine have said "non-pharmaceutical interventions", such as lockdown, may be needed to control the spread of omicron and prevent hospital admissions reaching an unsustainable peak.

In their research paper, scientists assumed omicron causes the same severity of illness as delta, but did not look at the impact of measures such as mass testing to control its spread.

They projected that hospital admissions could reach anywhere between 175,000 to 492,000 between December 1 this year and April 30, 2022, while deaths could range from 24,700 to 74,800.

The paper read: "These results suggest that omicron has the potential to cause substantial surges in cases, hospital admissions and deaths in populations with high levels of immunity, including England.

"The reintroduction of additional non-pharmaceutical interventions may be required to prevent hospital admissions exceeding the levels seen in England during the previous peak in winter 2020-2021."

tbf I have no issues with these institutions looking at worst-case scenarios as, frankly, that's what they're there for.

Divs like Ferguson pedalling the worst-case scenario as fact, and papers lapping it up, is a different matter.

 

[peteblue]

tbf I have no issues with these institutions looking at worst-case scenarios as, frankly, that's what they're there for.

Divs like Ferguson pedalling the worst-case scenario as fact, and papers lapping it up, is a different matter.

Ferguson should be sued by trade bodies in the hospitality sector for promoting unsubstantiated scare stories in the media…

 

[COYBL25]

Ferguson should be sued by trade bodies in the hospitality sector for promoting unsubstantiated scare stories in the media…

Didn’t Ferguson get caught out breaking lockdown rules with his bit on the side ?

 

[peteblue]

Didn’t Ferguson get caught out breaking lockdown rules with his bit on the side ?

He did….

 

[LinekersLegs]

Question for @LinekersLegs or @RAFUH, or anyone else with far more expertise on this that myself. Suppose a variant of COVID comes along that is more akin to the regular flu or common cold (not claiming that’s what Omicron is). What are the reasons why we wouldn’t want to let it infect as many people as possible and become the dominant strain? It seems like it would be common sense to me, but every time anyone seems to mention it, they kind of get shouted down and made out to be a monster for even suggesting it. Just curious what exactly I’m missing.

Reasons I’ve seen discussed are
1) It is hard to select what variant someone is infected with. In the early stages (eg say ColdCovidVariant 10% of cases and OlderVariant 90%) any encouragement of infection will likely just raise the number of people infected with the OlderVariant. There is probably a mathematical tipping point based on the relative transmission of the two variants where it would end up with more of ColdCovidVariant than the other course would but timing of implementation would be very tricky and assumes a detailed knowledge of prevalence at a specific point that I don’t think we have.

2) A small number multiplied by a very large one can still be a large number that can cause problems (if only to staffing levels) especially if concentrated in a short time period. Think this thread does a good job of walking through some numbers and highlights how difficult it is to predict.


3) The more people are infected, with any variant, the more likely it is to get into someone who has a weakened immune system. Not only is that unpleasant for the the person involved but it is a potential pathway for another variant of concern to be produced.

Why fighting Omicron should include ramping up HIV prevention

Analysis: experts believe that weakened immune systems may give rise to new coronavirus variantsCoronavirus – latest updatesSee all our coronavirus coverage

www.theguardian.com

 

[coollino]

I will honestly be amazed if there is another lockdown.

Shutting hospitality is the furthest I think it will go, the damage seems to be done there already so they might as well get on with it and at least offer financial support. Most in the sector would probably prefer that instead of being open and full of cancellations/no shows

 

[grandjoeblue]

I will honestly be amazed if there is another lockdown.

Shutting hospitality is the furthest I think it will go, the damage seems to be done there already so they might as well get on with it and at least offer financial support. Most in the sector would probably prefer that instead of being open and full of cancellations/no shows

Shutting all hospitality along with homeworking counts as a lockdown for me. Without hospitality what can you do? Go for a walk?