Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

Those who have compromised immune system that I know can rest now as common sense indeed prevails, such measure increases their chance of living longer, selfish I know, but I like them in my life..

Yes removing 25% of each year is a great way to improve life expectancy. Maybe we should do a 12 month lockdown as we might live even longer then?

 

[ToffeeTim]

Those who have compromised immune system that I know can rest assured now and common sense indeed prevails, and it increases their chance of living longer, selfish I know, but I like them in my life..

At what stage will you believe that lockdowns are not appropriate?

Because if you think we need a lockdown now, then you will think we need a lockdown every winter, because covid is staying for the foreseeable.

And the problems lockdowns cause are never part of the conversation either. It's almost like those with mental health problems, those missing out on education, those struggling with financial problems due to unemployment/lack of work, those suffering in isolation seperated from family, don't matter anymore. It makes me sad to be honest.

This is what this about in my opinion - They are trying to normalise the idea of winter restrictions to help the health service because there is no political will to make the changes required to help them. There is no justification for a lockdown this winter, and there is no evidence this variant is more severe, but there is still a lot of hysteria to restrict our lives.

If you don't think we can live a normal life now as a highly vaccinated population (like 90% of adults??), then you will never feel its right to go back to normal.

The idea that people who don't support a lockdown, somehow don't care about people, is utterly ludicrous as well.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Seen various sources saying 1m cases a day in the UK of the new variant before the end of December. Quite a lofty prediction considering South Africa are only on 22,000 cases per day and it started there.

1 million?

Not scaremongering that at all...

 

[grandjoeblue]

1 million?

Not scaremongering that at all...

They've just worked it out based on cases doubling each day. I don't know why they've stopped at a million. Maybe all 67m of us will get COVID each day by the end of January.

 

[Amw79]

I have noticed for a good while now since this variant was discovered that we seem to have gone from a society that demands evidence to one that is twisting evidence to a negative connotation. Go back 9 months ago and numbers dropping after the winter would be seen as a positive, now it seems it's a negative with could/may/possibly constantly being used to explain something worse. I'm not niaeve to think that numbers won't increase with the winter because they will.

But a drop in figures in the run up to now is a good sign , it means everything in terms of jabs is finally working, again clear evidence of it.

Just generally , I've not read hundreds of them but every opinion or verdict about the new variant has been positive, except for ones from this country. Only British seem to pull negative from the data when other scientists are pulling positive , albiet with a too soon to tell disclaimer still.

Just seems to be a British thing, even when it's good , people want to look for the bad. It's fine to be cautious , we should be looking for the wins though not the potential losses that have not yet happened.

But you’re looking at the drop in hospitalisation numbers only, and saying that’s a good thing (which it is, in isolation). But the hospitalisation numbers are a consequence of case numbers.

Where cases rise, hospitalisations rise 2-3 weeks later. The link is happily, proportionally less than in previous waves (due to vaccines), but it’s still there.

As I said, I think it’s probably over cautious. But there’s no twisting of the data to my eye, it’s looking at the causal metric - cases, not the effect metric - hospitalisations.

 

[grandjoeblue]

But you’re looking at the drop in hospitalisation numbers only, and saying that’s a good thing (which it is, in isolation). But the hospitalisation numbers are a consequence of case numbers.

Where cases rise, hospitalisations rise 2-3 weeks later. The link is happily, proportionally less than in previous waves (due to vaccines), but it’s still there.

As I said, I think it’s probably over cautious. But there’s no twisting of the data to my eye, it’s looking at the causal metric - cases, not the effect metric - hospitalisations.

For me it's clearly down to a severe lack of capacity, a 1000 beds a day sounds scary but in reality it's not that high, it's 1 or 2 additional beds per hospital. The health system in this country has been completely crushed over a 20 year period of systematic underfunding. A system always running at 100% in the winter cannot cope with any real additional demands.

England had 299,000 hospital beds in 1988 and we now have 141,000. The population has increased from 47m to around 58m in that time. Despite advancements in medicine you still need beds. I don't see how this gets any better next winter.

 

[TN Toffee]

At what stage will you believe that lockdowns are not appropriate?

Because if you think we need a lockdown now, then you will think we need a lockdown every winter, because covid is staying for the foreseeable.

And the problems lockdowns cause are never part of the conversation either. It's almost like those with mental health problems, those missing out on education, those struggling with financial problems due to unemployment/lack of work, those suffering in isolation seperated from family, don't matter anymore. It makes me sad to be honest.

This is what this about in my opinion - They are trying to normalise the idea of winter restrictions to help the health service because there is no political will to make the changes required to help them. There is no justification for a lockdown this winter, and there is no evidence this variant is more severe, but there is still a lot of hysteria to restrict our lives.

If you don't think we can live a normal life now as a highly vaccinated population (like 90% of adults??), then you will never feel its right to go back to normal.

And fully locking down the country to protect the NHS ultimately becomes a race to the bottom with regards to funding it. The NHS is already stretched thin while being funded based on what I assume are tax revenues of businesses being able to trade and people being able to work year round. What happens after a few years of a substantial amount of businesses only being able to trade for 8-9 months of the year? Then it’s time for further cuts to the NHS because the money isn’t there to fund it. The end game would be that nobody can ever leave their house in order to protect a nonexistent NHS.

 

[Amw79]

For me it's clearly down to a severe lack of capacity, a 1000 beds a day sounds scary but in reality it's not that high, it's 1 or 2 additional beds per hospital. The health system in this country has been completely crushed over a 20 year period of systematic underfunding. A system always running at 100% in the winter cannot cope with any real additional demands.

England had 299,000 hospital beds in 1988 and we now have 141,000. The population has increased from 47m to around 58m in that time. Despite advancements in medicine you still need beds. I don't see how this gets any better next winter.

Agree with all this.

 

[MikeH72]

At what stage will you believe that lockdowns are not appropriate?

Because if you think we need a lockdown now, then you will think we need a lockdown every winter, because covid is staying for the foreseeable.

And the problems lockdowns cause are never part of the conversation either. It's almost like those with mental health problems, those missing out on education, those struggling with financial problems due to unemployment/lack of work, those suffering in isolation seperated from family, don't matter anymore. It makes me sad to be honest.

This is what this about in my opinion - They are trying to normalise the idea of winter restrictions to help the health service because there is no political will to make the changes required to help them. There is no justification for a lockdown this winter, and there is no evidence this variant is more severe, but there is still a lot of hysteria to restrict our lives.

If you don't think we can live a normal life now as a highly vaccinated population (like 90% of adults??), then you will never feel its right to go back to normal.

The idea that people who don't support a lockdown, somehow don't care about people, is utterly ludicrous as well.

Probably best to just middle finger every single post he makes because he’s trolling at this point.

 

[efcfanwirral]

And fully locking down the country to protect the NHS ultimately becomes a race to the bottom with regards to funding it. The NHS is already stretched thin while being funded based on what I assume are tax revenues of businesses being able to trade and people being able to work year round. What happens after a few years of a substantial amount of businesses only being able to trade for 8-9 months of the year? Then it’s time for further cuts to the NHS because the money isn’t there to fund it. The end game would be that nobody can ever leave their house in order to protect a nonexistent NHS.

Possibly even worse - much more of this sort of "you can stay open but everyone needs to be scared" situation we're currently in, these businesses just won't exist. Sounds like so many cancellations on the back of all this despite there being NO restrictions on gatherings.

They don't even need official restrictions now, threaten self isolation and make people scared enough and they self regulate themselves.

The more things are taken away from us last minute, the less chance we'll bother planning things in the future because, what's the point?

That's where we are with abroad holidays- they're kind of a thing of the past now apart from really dedicated people. And even then who genuinely books a holiday and looks forward to it in expectation of it happening? Add to that the layer of the worries about testing positive and having to pay for isolation there, or rule changes, its reframing it all in our minds.

It feels like a slow creep towards this for hospitality too, hopefully accidental - why plan a gathering in winter when it won't happen? Same with live music etc too - I don't buy tickets in advance anymore. And who's going to book Christmas parties next December after this? We know the seasonality now.

If this carries on they won't need restrictions, these businesses just won't exist. And people will still spread it in homes, schools and workplaces despite us being led to believe people not wearing a mask in hospitality when you stand up and mass gatherings are the only culprits.

 

[Ghost Rider]

But you’re looking at the drop in hospitalisation numbers only, and saying that’s a good thing (which it is, in isolation). But the hospitalisation numbers are a consequence of case numbers.

Where cases rise, hospitalisations rise 2-3 weeks later. The link is happily, proportionally less than in previous waves (due to vaccines), but it’s still there.

As I said, I think it’s probably over cautious. But there’s no twisting of the data to my eye, it’s looking at the causal metric - cases, not the effect metric - hospitalisations.

There is a difference, cases vs hospitalisation is less connected than they once were. Not disagreeing with you at all on that front , one does go hand in hand with the other but not to the same extent as before.

I never meant you were twisting data, just a general comment that one, only British experts are reporting the variant negatively in comparison to most others I have read.

 

[MikeH72]

Possibly even worse - much more of this sort of "you can stay open but everyone needs to be scared" situation we're currently in, these businesses just won't exist. Sounds like so many cancellations on the back of all this despite there being NO restrictions on gatherings.

They don't even need official restrictions now, threaten self isolation and make people scared enough and they self regulate themselves.

The more things are taken away from us last minute, the less chance we'll bother planning things in the future because, what's the point?

That's where we are with abroad holidays- they're kind of a thing of the past now apart from really dedicated people. And even then who genuinely books a holiday and looks forward to it in expectation of it happening? Add to that the layer of the worries about testing positive and having to pay for isolation there, or rule changes, its reframing it all in our minds.

It feels like a slow creep towards this for hospitality too, hopefully accidental - why plan a gathering in winter when it won't happen? Same with live music etc too - I don't buy tickets in advance anymore. And who's going to book Christmas parties next December after this? We know the seasonality now.

If this carries on they won't need restrictions, these businesses just won't exist. And people will still spread it in homes, schools and workplaces despite us being led to believe people not wearing a mask in hospitality when you stand up and mass gatherings are the only culprits.

Never. I’ve got a holiday booked for June and I’m going, that’s all there is to it.

 

[TN Toffee]

Possibly even worse - much more of this sort of "you can stay open but everyone needs to be scared" situation we're currently in, these businesses just won't exist. Sounds like so many cancellations on the back of all this despite there being NO restrictions on gatherings.

They don't even need official restrictions now, threaten self isolation and make people scared enough and they self regulate themselves.

The more things are taken away from us last minute, the less chance we'll bother planning things in the future because, what's the point?

That's where we are with abroad holidays- they're kind of a thing of the past now apart from really dedicated people. And even then who genuinely books a holiday and looks forward to it in expectation of it happening? Add to that the layer of the worries about testing positive and having to pay for isolation there, or rule changes, its reframing it all in our minds.

It feels like a slow creep towards this for hospitality too, hopefully accidental - why plan a gathering in winter when it won't happen? Same with live music etc too - I don't buy tickets in advance anymore. And who's going to book Christmas parties next December after this? We know the seasonality now.

If this carries on they won't need restrictions, these businesses just won't exist. And people will still spread it in homes, schools and workplaces despite us being led to believe people not wearing a mask in hospitality when you stand up and mass gatherings are the only culprits.

Agree with pretty much all that. Also, locking the country down December-March isn’t going to be a simple 25% drop off in revenues for many businesses. There’s lots of places that more or less survive because of how much they can generate during the holidays.

 

[Amw79]

There is a difference, cases vs hospitalisation is less connected than they once were. Not disagreeing with you at all on that front , one does go hand in hand with the other but not to the same extent as before.

I never meant you were twisting data, just a general comment that one, only British experts are reporting the variant negatively in comparison to most others I have read.

Definitely. As I stated - “The link is happily, proportionally less than in previous waves (due to vaccines), but it’s still there.”

I work with a lot of data, and your initial post was around some twisting or ignoring of data that no-one had mentioned, but to me, they’re looking at the correct causal metric for decision making, you were looking only at the effect metric (whether they’re taking the right decision, is a different question).

I agree with your general point around the US, EU etc and their more positive view of Omicron on the whole.

But I’m generally a happy-go-lucky / glass half full type, so questions about overall British pessimism are for a Psychologist (or one of our American cousins!) to explain.

 

[efcfanwirral]

Agree with pretty much all that. Also, locking the country down December-March isn’t going to be a simple 25% drop off in revenues for many businesses. There’s lots of places that more or less survive because of how much they can generate during the holidays.

And the government evidently thinks its helping these businesses by letting them stay open til after Christmas. but their indirect effects are destroying them.

All this talk of reviewing plan B and a potential plan C...we all know it'll probably be lockdown after christmas because respiratory disease increases from now and the NHS gets busier every year at this point.

Even if things do stay open but restricted into January - it's my birthday a couple of weeks in, and in a normal world I'd have planned to go into town, get a few people to meet us at lunchtime, pizza, few drinks, find somewhere to watch the match and then there's a gig from one of my favourite bands that evening in Liverpool. Obviously I've never expected this to happen so I don't mean it from my own perspective but that's the sort of lost revenue that'll be played out many times across the country. As if it goes to table service/booking and gigs are off or masked up or whatever I just won't bother