Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
It's almost summer there.Just an alternative take on South Africa.
They have very few vaccinated people on comparison to other countries and we are entering winter which has a tendancy to spread viruses more.
I wonder if the spread of a virus in a population that is largely unvaccinated is being blown out of proportion given what they have told the world , out of proportion in regards to trying to find a deeper meaning beyond the obvious.
If south Africa had similar vaccinated rates as the UK , would those numbers still be as high? Or if another country announced the variant , would their numbers be scrutinised as much as this?
The issue is the steepness of the curve. People are getting infected faster than they were in a no-vaccine world. If I wanted to take your position, I would argue it this way - odds are that the initial curve was as steep if not steeper, but the tests to confirm a substantial fraction of infections simply were not available.
Given the unreliable character of the data in the initial wave of infections, it's not really possible to know what the baseline infection rate was. If we're exceeding the observed baseline rate, though, it strongly suggests that past infections do not confer immunity, and is suggestive that existing vaccines may be only partially effective or ineffective.
There is no way of knowing what would happen if the variant started out in the UK without actually observing the case, and we don't have a good way of predicting what would happen without more data than we currently have.