Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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No hospital figures reported for today, last Saturday’s late revealed total was 114

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 166 deaths were announced today, down 20 on yesterday and up 31 on last Saturday. The 7 day rolling average rises to 156.71

For the 60 day cut off, 201 deaths were announced today, up 76 on yesterday’s late revealed total of 125 and up 24 on last Saturday’s late revealed total of 177. The 7 day rolling average rises to 182.14
 
Coronavirus cases could fall significantly in November without any restrictions being reintroduced, modelling seen by the government suggests.


Experts at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) have predicted that - even without the government's 'Plan B' - COVID cases, hospital admissions and deaths in England will peak in November and start to fall rapidly to much lower levels by Christmas.


According to their modelling, if the government reintroduces restrictions, delaying 'back-to-normal' behaviour until the spring, there will still be a drop in the coming weeks, but rates will rise again much faster next year.

Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told Sky News the modelling suggests the UK is close to 'endemic equilibrium'.

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...en-without-plan-b-modelling-suggests-12444117

Scientists suggesting natural immunity will be the answer and not making people wear masks and stop mixing.

So in essence , vaccination has done its job and for all the worrying, sticking it into 50 million arms and a bunch of unvaccinated catching it is the best course of action.
 
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...en-without-plan-b-modelling-suggests-12444117

Scientists suggesting natural immunity will be the answer and not making people wear masks and stop mixing.

So in essence , vaccination has done its job and for all the worrying, sticking it into 50 million arms and a bunch of unvaccinated catching it is the best course of action.

Certainly seems like this is the UK approach, my read of it is the UK economy is in trouble and the priortised concern is the shut down in the economy, the real world effects of Brexit are starting take hold and dont think there is the flexibility in the economy to take another shock given the UK new ecnomic and political circumstances as inflation bites around Europe. I think the Goverment is priotising the economy over health, not an enviable decsion so its where you are on the risk scale and your personal impact likely to determine your position and opinion on approach. Anyway you square it the UK are posting high case incidence and RIP figures comparatively to the west of western Europe at the moment - that can change very quickly mind.

Its safe to say, we know what works, vaccines have been a huge boost - id dread the state we all would be in without them. Yet its the mitigation measures adn approach that seems to be the key difference from the UK to the rest of the western world, strong case there to be made, that from a public health perspective, that things could be better. Its not all or nothing, the economy can keep going with maskes, social distancing, passports etc. It is everywhere else, its viewed as enabling everywhere, but some how its seen as regressive in the UK, that is partly because "victory" was called in July, its was all for political capital post Brexit. So its fast and loose with heatlh really.

Saw an interesting piece earlier, the Uk goverment case incidence report only PCR tests, a scientist has been accumulating both PCR and L.F. test reported on the UK official Covid app, the audit showed a case incidence rate of just under 100k cases a day. Thats 1 in 58 people of the population.


As well as a lack of coherence of mitigation measures, another reason why the impact of Covid is so prevalent in the UK comparatively, is AZ, we know the vaccines begin to waine 6 months post vaccination, The UK had a big front load, from Jan-March, so declining immunity becomes a factor, but also in comparison to the MRNA's AZ immunity declines faster and lower, meaning a great degree decline of protection over the same period of time, would encourage all t get their booster if they can.
 
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https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19...en-without-plan-b-modelling-suggests-12444117

Scientists suggesting natural immunity will be the answer and not making people wear masks and stop mixing.

So in essence , vaccination has done its job and for all the worrying, sticking it into 50 million arms and a bunch of unvaccinated catching it is the best course of action.
I think the government are seeing what they want to see.
I'd like to see what other academics make of the UofEA suggestion.
 
I think the government are seeing what they want to see.
I'd like to see what other academics make of the UofEA suggestion.
That is science though. There is very little science on the subject that is universally agreed upon without a definitive answer either way. Just interesting to me reading that a group of scientists seems to think that the vaccine will solve the problem, which is a little different to the current narrative that things will get worse covid wise despite the vaccine.

Time will tell either way ,
Certainly seems like this is the UK approach, my read of it is the UK economy is in trouble and the priortised concern is the shut down in the economy, the real world effects of Brexit are starting take hold and dont think there is the flexibility in the economy to take another shock given the UK new ecnomic and political circumstances as inflation bites around Europe. I think the Goverment is priotising the economy over health, not an enviable decsion so its where you are on the risk scale and your personal impact likely to determine your position and opinion on approach. Anyway you square it the UK are posting high case incidence and RIP figures comparatively to the west of western Europe at the moment - that can change very quickly mind.

Its safe to say, we know what works, vaccines have been a huge boost - id dread the state we all would be in without them. Yet its the mitigation measures adn approach that seems to be the key difference from the UK to the rest of the western world, strong case there to be made, that from a public health perspective, that things could be better. Its not all or nothing, the economy can keep going with maskes, social distancing, passports etc. It is everywhere else, its viewed as enabling everywhere, but some how its seen as regressive in the UK, that is partly because "victory" was called in July, its was all for political capital post Brexit. So its fast and loose with heatlh really.

Saw an interesting piece earlier, the Uk goverment case incidence report only PCR tests, a scientist has been accumulating both PCR and L.F. test reported on the UK official Covid app, the audit showed a case incidence rate of just under 100k cases a day. Thats 1 in 58 people of the population.


As well as a lack of coherence of mitigation measures, another reason why the impact of Covid is so prevalent in the UK comparatively, is AZ, we know the vaccines begin to waine 6 months post vaccination, The UK had a big front load, from Jan-March, so declining immunity becomes a factor, but also in comparison to the MRNA's AZ immunity declines faster and lower, meaning a great degree decline of protection over the same period of time, would encourage all t get their booster if they can.
Absolutely, there has to be a balance in immunity levels for it to work, i don't think the jab was ever advertised as a one jab only type of deal. It will be in the future i reckon but it was always communicated like more jabs would be needed.

I am glad that an average bloke like me could spot the same common sense that the science had, September was alwyas going to have to be booster roll out, so brilliant they already knew it well in advance to begin doing them. Even if they only boost 5 million between now and december, that will make a huge difference in immunity.

In terms of cases, i will still believe that it is a meaningless piece of data now that you are actively protecting people. Its like it is raining fire, but you have spent 10 months fireproofing everything in the country. Telling people how many cases of fire rain then stops mattering if you have given everyone plenty of notice to fireproof their belongings and the rest. you would look at those who chose not to fireproof their house as stupid and therefore pay less attention to them. Same principle here, jab has been out for 10 months, enough to restart the process. If someone absolutely doesn't want it and gets sick, then who is arsed. As long as the ones with the jab aren't dying as a result, that is exactly where you need to be. Short of making the jab mandatory, all you can do is trust the vaccine and pay less attention to those stupid enough to refuse it. Otherwise we as a society cannot function, it shuts down everything based on idiots, you can't function like that!
 
No hospital figures reported for today, last Sunday’s late revealed total was 43

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 74 deaths were announced today, down 92 on yesterday and up 2 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to an even 157

There was no data reported today for the 60 day cut off, last Sunday’s late revealed total was 81
 
Interesting that Aguero went off the pitch this weekend with suspected chest pain - throw in Eriksen's incident at the Euros and I wonder if Myocarditis from the vaccines have played any part in either?

You would hope sportsmen/athletes would be carefully monitored after having the jabs as strenuous exercise weeks to months after even minor cases of Myocarditis / Pericarditis can be fatal.
 
Interesting that Aguero went off the pitch this weekend with suspected chest pain - throw in Eriksen's incident at the Euros and I wonder if Myocarditis from the vaccines have played any part in either?

You would hope sportsmen/athletes would be carefully monitored after having the jabs as strenuous exercise weeks to months after even minor cases of Myocarditis / Pericarditis can be fatal.
No idea about aguero but eriksen didn't have a vaccine at the time of the euros.
 
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