Thats the thing, passports protect the unvaxed as well, as if they dont have entry they are less likely to be infected, thus breaking the chain of infection and minmising hospitaisations as the unvxed have an 88% greater chance of significant illness as opposed to someone vaxed, there is a middle ground there with antigen testing for the unvaxed to, if you wanted to go down that route. I think ratios in hospital in most countries are in and around 20% vaccinated and 80% not.
They could spread the virus to people who are vaccinated but still vulnerable- my point is at some point you basically have to get over the notion of people spreading the virus. Put it this way would I feel safer knowing everyone has been tested or vaccinated prior to entry to a large event? As a vaccinated person I don’t really care; but given what we know I’d genuinely lean towards people having been tested.
Bar the minority of people who cannot he vaccinated, the vaccine has been widely available and open to all adults for months now. Its a waste of time thinking about people who are willingly choosing not to be vaccinated and they should have no bearing on whether restrictions should be in place. I get the argument that you are protecting the unvaccinated- but these people don’t want your protection. The only argument that holds any water is the burden they could place on healthcare.
I think the issue is the assumption that most spread happens in things like big events, but that leaked government report (via Politico the other day) had it at 2-13% of community transmission takes place at the venues that plan B would have vaccine only proof at
So by banning unvaccinated from those, it's just encouraging them to spend more time in the places where the other 87%+ of transmission is happening, probably in private settings, and likely with closer contact to people so more risk.
It feels punitive, which is fine if that's what you want, but with figures like that, relying on this as some kind of magic bullet in a situation where you do genuinely need to bring cases down it clearly isn't going to work. Unless you stop unvaccinated people ever being in the vicinity of vaccinated people, and by that I mean in homes or workplaces where most unmasked close contact actually happens.
Even rolling it out to hospitality will just push unvaccinated people into homes more. I just don't think they're the big win people think they are. Though Mark Drakeford continues down this road it seems...