Deckard2049
Player Valuation: £15m
If the government reverse the universal credit deduction then you’d have to imagine serious restrictions are being considered. Until then I’m doubtful about anything close to a lockdown returning.
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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efcfanwirral
Player Valuation: £30m
I think people assume that less masks in public places, pubs etc will cause all the spread, but it's closer contact at home, workplace and office that surely will mean that there could be 100% mask coverage in shops but it doesn't really stop those.
For masks to remove risk to the level people seem to think they do, they need to be worn 100% of the time including in the home, or people need to be 2m apart everywhere at all times.
Realistically, masks have more impact during social distancing than when there isn't any. So we'll be back to that because that's the only thing that truly stops it
efcfanwirral
Player Valuation: £30m
They extended furlough a couple of days before it officially ended last year, then announced it as part of the lockdown packages after loads had been laid off. I wouldn't be surprised to see similar this time
I'd be incredibly surprised if cases do not go up when the schools go back, with less restrictions than ever, and more people in work /using public transport.
The figures coming out of Scotland support the prediction that they will. However, it's not as simple as cases going up meaning we'll get restrictions.
With the increase in the population being double jabbed and potentially a third for the most vulnerable, it'll boil down to the hospitalisations and deaths.
These will almost certainly increase, but if they're within what the government count as reasonable (acceptable) levels then we won't see a lockdown.
There may be some temporary restrictions in the depths of winter although I suspect they'll only be minor if there's any at all - the latter more likely.
Im surprised you think restrictions are that unlikely to be honest. Deaths are already around 1 in 15 of all UK deaths on a daily basis and some hospitals are already struggling with hospitalisations. It will only get worse from here as we all know vaccines cannot solve the issue completely.
There will be a heavy flu impact in winter, which the NHS would struggle with as it is. Restrictions from October onwards seem inevitable to me.
I hope that I am right and wrong for a combination of reasons. Firstly, I think there's been a sea change from those in government regarding COVID.
You're correct about deaths, levels of infection and hospital figures, but I can't help feel that unless it becomes dire they may try to simply ride if out.
Primarily, this is the reason that I think restrictions are unlikely - I'm not saying they're unnecessary. They removed all restrictions when cases were still high!
That then comes to me hoping, perhaps naively in some form of sense of optimism due to the above, that figures won't reach the point where they're needed.
So I hope that I am correct in the sense of not needing restrictions as I hope numbers don't deteriorate significantly. But, I hope I'm wrong about the govt too...
... as I have a horrible feeling that if things do turn ugly they may not be as quick or as willing to implement any restrictions hence them being unlikely.
efcfanwirral
Player Valuation: £30m
There's definitely arguments both ways, but I do wonder where it ends - many deaths from this and flu are technically preventable, and the NHS will be under pressure which is the main issue, but at what cost to overall society is preventing these deaths? And where my concern about future winters comes in is that if they're preventable this year, shouldn't we in theory always prevent them? I feel we're writing the winter blueprint for at least the next few years this year.
As a great many covid hospital admissions don't need ICU, it sounds like these Nightingales would be perfect about now to take a lot of the covid burden off the main hospitals. Shame we don't have the staff for them.
dholliday
deconstructed rep
This, plus the majority online-sentiment (outside of echo chambers like here), plus the regular pro-freedom protests happening in European cities, and many reports all over Europe of mask-wearing & vaccine-readiness dying down...all suggests a significant part of the populace have had enough of the pandemic...or rather, of the reaction to the pandemic: the government policies, media-coverage etc.
Looking at the numbers in European countries suggest things aren't really that bad, relatively speaking. It suggests the majority of folk don't have direct experiences with the virus, so naturally the human response would be to tire of policies around it. It also suggests many are noticing the mixed-messaging from the media/governments, and are switching off or even making their own minds up. Hence why Boris has a lot of general-public support with his live-with-it policy (again, outside of echo chambers).
Why USA seems a lot worse (severe cases) may be something specifically US-related.
This sentiment may also be a fleeting summer-feeling, like last summer, before the Autumn/Winter drastically changes things.
Humans aren't that complex en masse...they need compelling close-to-home reasons why they should act in a certain way. Let's hope the coming cold seasons doesn't give them that reason.
It's not sensible if the main reason to do so is to reassure others. It sure is sensible if we see mask-mandates reduce transmission. Have we seen that in real numbers? I don't think we do. Sure, we have all these learned studies telling us they should, but when we look at the peaks and troughs of Covid-prevalence we see it doesn't match up with mask mandates...it appears the virus does its thing regardless.
Sweden and Belarus (largely without mask mandates throughout the pandemic) show similar %-numbers to mask-mandating nations, tho' that's not a fair comparison as their population density is much less.
Regular ultra-strict lockdowns per NZ, Aus & some Asian nations suggest that is the most effective way to reduce transmission, that is backed by the numbers. Do we want such policies in Europe/US? Are they feasible?
We look back at the official WHO/CDC advice from Spring 2020 telling us that mask-wearing was counter-productive, and could cause more infections than it prevents...and we wonder why that advice changed when the figures continue to suggest mask-wearing has little bearing on infected numbers. Harsh regular lockdowns do, but not mask-wearing.
A significant portion of the public are wondering these things, and they're not receiving convincing information from their media/governments. Hence why the only thing that would convince the masses to choose to wear a mask is if they're seeing the pandemic's effects in real life (the actual illness/death...not media/government chat).
Hence why Autumn/Winter will tell us the answer one way or another.
NilSatisOptimum
Player Valuation: £70m
Unfortunately that is my experience when venturing over the border, too much reliance on the NHS, and not enough personal responsibility. Long COVID is still a thing with or without vaccination.
I don't think I've suggested otherwise, have I? 'Those who wan't respect, give respect' is a mantra I follow hence the example of partly why I wear a mask.
dholliday
deconstructed rep
And what do you think about that, Legs? Anyone not triple-dosed won't be considered "fully-vaccinated".
That is surely a sentiment on its way to Europe/US.
I mused the other day: the double-vaccinated will soon be relegated to the status the unvaccinated are currently enduring.
Is this the way forward?
Israel has an incredibly low number of hospital beds for its population compared to Europe and US, I think it significantly shapes their governments attitudes to vaccination as it would only take a comparatively small surge to overwhelm their heathcare system
My issues around booster mandates would be far more around rich countries hogging vaccines than the “status the unvaccinated are currently enduring”
Deckard2049
Player Valuation: £15m
Due to the nature of this disease perhaps this is as good as we could hope for (especially within the timescale) in regards to the efficacy of the vaccines but I can only speak anecdotally and say a majority of people I know and have spoken to on this issue do not want to take yearly boosters, never mind boosters five months after your last jab.
I’m interested to see if we do follow suit here domestically but the issue that has been raised is the truly pertinent one- if we don’t follow other countries in regard to their booster plans would a double dosed person not be considered “fully vaccinated” internationally? Maybe it’ll become part of standard holiday immunisations- double dosed is enough here in the UK but if you want to travel in the future you’ll need a top up.
I’m interested to see if we do follow suit here domestically but the issue that has been raised is the truly pertinent one- if we don’t follow other countries in regard to their booster plans would a double dosed person not be considered “fully vaccinated” internationally? Maybe it’ll become part of standard holiday immunisations- double dosed is enough here in the UK but if you want to travel in the future you’ll need a top up.
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