Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

A Half Dose of Moderna is More Effective Than a Full Dose of AstraZeneca - Marginal REVOLUTION

Today we are releasing a new paper on dose-stretching, co-authored by Witold Wiecek, Amrita Ahuja, Michael Kremer, Alexandre Simoes Gomes, Christopher M. Snyder, Brandon Joel Tan and myself. The paper makes three big points. First, Khoury et al (2021) just published a paper in Nature which shows...

marginalrevolution.com

Really interesting paper, especially in light of what might mean for vaccine rollout in countries that don’t have good current vaccine supply (although we should obviously working in parallel to fix that too)
“Indeed, a one-half or one-quarter dose of the Moderna or Pfizer vaccine is predicted to be more effective than the standard dose of some of the other vaccines like the AstraZeneca, J&J or Sinopharm vaccines, assuming the same relationship as in Khoury et al. holds. The point is not that these other vaccines aren’t good–they are great! The point is that by using fractional dosing we could rapidly and safely expand the number of effective doses of the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines.”

 

[tsubaki]

You are saying you distrust Dr. Fauci, as he made it quite clear what the current understanding is.

But i can also offer you a learned link if you like?

How about this one?

Prolonged use of N95 and surgical masks by healthcare professionals during COVID-19 has caused adverse effects such as headaches, rash, acne, skin breakdown, and impaired cognition in the majority of those surveyed.

Adverse Effects of Prolonged Mask Use among Healthcare Professionals during COVID-19

In March 2020, New York City encountered its first official case of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019). This novel coronavirus, referred to as SARS-COV 2, originated in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Within a short amount of time, hundreds of thousands of cases were diagnosed around the world...

clinmedjournals.org

Then there's the impersonal factor i mentioned earlier...i don't wanna live in a society where everyone is wearing masks. It's depressing.

You do you, tho'

This is probably a completely wasted effort, but surely even you must have read that study?

I mean for a start it was talking about healthcare professionals wearing masks for long periods of time whilst doing their work, not about putting one on when aboard a crowded train or bus. Secondly it at no point said people should not wear masks or wearing them was counter-productive - just that they should take regular breaks where they get the opportunity to take them off and rest, to ensure the mask fitted properly.

As for Fauci, "the current understanding" is that people should wear masks and might have to in future. I am not aware that he's ever said that wearing masks was counter productive either.

Finally I want to live in a society where people aren't needlessly dying from things that could easily be avoided with a small amount of effort. If that means putting a mask on when getting on a tube train that is rammed with folk, then so be it.

 

[dholliday]

As for Fauci, "the current understanding" is that people should wear masks and might have to in future. I am not aware that he's ever said that wearing masks was counter productive either.

wow...i linked the video where he said exactly that. it's barely 2-minutes long.

i don't think you're reading my posts, but that's ok.

you do you, let the rest of us do us.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Thought this was a balanced assessment of current UK situation

June 21: Why lockdown easing may be delayed

The UK should be braced for a surge in infections - but what's coming will be quite different to before.

t.co

 

[Brennan]

From not wearing a mask in Asda to slave owners in half a dozen posts. Tremendous stuff.

Something about Hitler ?

 

[LinekersLegs]

First time I’ve seen data compared to a control group of non COVID

“The large population-based COVID-19 Infection Survey in the United Kingdom is an example of a study that included a comparison group of people without COVID-19, which helps us understand whether these post-acute symptoms are more common among COVID-19 survivors compared to the general public. Participants in this study were invited to receive repeated surveys and regular COVID-19 testing for up to one year. Among more than 20,000 study participants who tested positive for COVID-19 between April 2020 and March 2021, 13.7% continued to experience symptoms for at least 12 weeks after their positive test. This was eight times higher than the prevalence of symptoms reported by study participants who had not tested positive for COVID-19. Among people who were experiencing symptoms 12 weeks after their initial positive test, almost all (97%) had at least one symptom during the acute phase although only 8% were hospitalized. The percentage of study participants who reported specific symptoms 5 and 12 weeks after diagnosis are shown below. Fatigue, cough, headache and muscle pain were the most common symptoms reported after 12 weeks”

 

[Deckard2049]

Inevitable what’s going to happen now.

 

[Tubey]

Inevitable what’s going to happen now.

Yeah I think we all know it'll be delayed, they've been priming for it.

I'm conflicted on it, but on balance I don't see the point in delay. Everyone is ignoring the government now anyway, all it does is destroy businesses.

The wave will be moderate, you might encroach on, I dunno, 50-60 deaths a day again, but what everyone seems to miss is that this increase is happening regardless of whether we 'open up' on 21 June, so unless they're going to lockdown again I just fail to see the point in destroying the economy even more.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Yeah I think we all know it'll be delayed, they've been priming for it.

I'm conflicted on it, but on balance I don't see the point in delay. Everyone is ignoring the government now anyway, all it does is destroy businesses.

The wave will be moderate, you might encroach on, I dunno, 50-60 deaths a day again, but what everyone seems to miss is that this increase is happening regardless of whether we 'open up' on 21 June, so unless they're going to lockdown again I just fail to see the point in destroying the economy even more.

Can you expand on your logic here Tubey?

Agree there is a certain baked in case/hospitalization/mortality rate but the opening up (whenever it is done) will presumably add an increased # layer on top due to increased mixing.

And tbh I don’t think the primary issue that might cause a delay is going to be the mortality figures, is the uncertainty around hospitalizations and the knock on effects on non-Covid catchup healthcare.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Can you expand on your logic here Tubey?

Agree there is a certain baked in case/hospitalization/mortality rate but the opening up (whenever it is done) will presumably add an increased # layer on top due to increased mixing.

And tbh I don’t think the primary issue that might cause a delay is going to be the mortality figures, is the uncertainty around hospitalizations and the knock on effects on non-Covid catchup healthcare.

The NHS will always be catching up until the funding is increased.

I can't see the measures being lifted. I always thought the June date would not happen. We'll be in similar measures to this until the winter and then I predict we'll be back under lockdown until 2022.

 

[Tubey]

Can you expand on your logic here Tubey?

Agree there is a certain baked in case/hospitalization/mortality rate but the opening up (whenever it is done) will presumably add an increased # layer on top due to increased mixing.

And tbh I don’t think the primary issue that might cause a delay is going to be the mortality figures, is the uncertainty around hospitalizations and the knock on effects on non-Covid catchup healthcare.

My reasoning is we haven't opened up on 21 June yet, but the increase is happening right now.

I believe that is happening as everyone is 'back to normal' now anyway, mixing in everyones houses etc. etc.

So we're already 'opened up'; the only difference is that certain businesses aren't. Whilst it's true that these businesses encourage social interaction, I don't think the difference will be that notable (indeed, trials of large scale events have shown very little increase in transmission).

 

[LinekersLegs]

The NHS will always be catching up until the funding is increased.

I can't see the measures being lifted. I always thought the June date would not happen. We'll be in similar measures to this until the winter and then I predict we'll be back under lockdown until 2022.

Sadly agree on the first bit.

I know I usually come across as a Debbie Downer on this thread but I’m somewhat hopeful that with continued good vaccine take-up and provided the slightly sunnier estimates on Delta hospitalization rates pan out then that can be avoided in the UK.

 

[LinekersLegs]

My reasoning is we haven't opened up on 21 June yet, but the increase is happening right now.

I believe that is happening as everyone is 'back to normal' now anyway, mixing in everyones houses etc. etc.

So we're already 'opened up'; the only difference is that certain businesses aren't. Whilst it's true that these businesses encourage social interaction, I don't think the difference will be that notable (indeed, trials of large scale events have shown very little increase in transmission).

That is where we differ then, lot of the modeling I’m looking at does assume an increase from the Phase 4 ease

 

[Deckard2049]

The NHS will always be catching up until the funding is increased.

I can't see the measures being lifted. I always thought the June date would not happen. We'll be in similar measures to this until the winter and then I predict we'll be back under lockdown until 2022.

If that happens then the vaccines have failed. Any talk of blaming people for not wearing masks or distancing etc would be moot at this point.

If we have another lockdown this winter then we have absolutely lost the plot as a nation.

 

[Tubey]

That is where we differ then, lot of the modeling I’m looking at does assume an increase.

Logically you'd think so, but then you have to remember they'd all be "COVID safe" events, so testing, temp checks and so on.

So, yes, some impact, I just think that short of a proper lockdown the situation we're in now will see an exponential increase in case rates regardless of whether we 'open up' on 21 June or not.