Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Bruce Wayne]

You’d hope so given that vaccines appear to halve transmission rates.

https://khub.net/documents/135939561/390853656/Impact+of+vaccination+on+household+transmission+of+SARS-COV-2+in+England.pdf/35bf4bb1-6ade-d3eb-a39e-9c9b25a8122a?t=1619601878136

In addition to the direct effects of preventing cases and reducing severity, we have shown that both the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccines are associated with reduced likelihood of household transmission by 40-50% from individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 after vaccination, highlighting important wider benefits to close contacts. While this analysis was primarily intended to understand impacts on transmission to household contacts rather than those outside the household, the former are consistently identified as being at high risk for secondary infection.

Across the EU nearly 50% of adults have had at least one jab, which you'd hope would provide the most vulnerable with a degree of protection, especially with case numbers generally so low at the moment. Interestingly, on the European Disease Control vaccine site, they cite a target of 70% for the vaccinations, which obviously the UK passed a while ago (for first doses). Is that figure for some form of "herd immunity"?

 

[COYBL25]

Here we go, the " Nepal " variant has been found in the UK lol

So, this is how we`re going to live our lives now ?

Every week, a new even more " scarier " variant than the last ??

Stop the world, I want to get off.

 

[MikeH72]

Here we go, the " Nepal " variant has been found in the UK lol

So, this is how we`re going to live our lives now ?

Every week, a new even more " scarier " variant than the last ??

Stop the world, I want to get off.

“Ah maybe THIS variant will be resistant to the vaccine, let’s give that a try” - BBC/Twitter rent-a-scientist

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[COYBL25]

“Ah maybe THIS variant will be resistant to the vaccine, let’s give that a try” - BBC/Twitter rent-a-scientist

" We need to resist opening up for the foreseeable future, so I can appear on various news outlets every day and claim a big fat fee every time "

 

[Tramps_mate]

Until they open up to British tourists that is...

 

[LinekersLegs]

Across the EU nearly 50% of adults have had at least one jab, which you'd hope would provide the most vulnerable with a degree of protection, especially with case numbers generally so low at the moment. Interestingly, on the European Disease Control vaccine site, they cite a target of 70% for the vaccinations, which obviously the UK passed a while ago (for first doses). Is that figure for some form of "herd immunity"?

What is probably causing a bit of a pause is that for Delta the full two doses really seem to make a significant difference - going to be a lot of focus on UK hospitalization rates of that one dose cohort as more data comes out and they will be trying to determine how 1 dose impacts transmission rates.

The level of vaccination herd immunity required will vary depending on the transmission rate - iirc wild type was estimated to be in low 70s but saw something the other day that Delta might mean closer to 85% (but on plus side hopefully could add in some natural immunity protection from those previously infected but as yet unvaccinated). Was all very speculative as they are still trying to firm down Delta’s transmission rate but will try to find it.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

What is probably causing a bit of a pause is that for Delta the full two doses really seem to make a significant difference - going to be a lot of focus on UK hospitalization rates of that one dose cohort as more data comes out and they will be trying to determine how 1 dose impacts transmission rates.

The level of vaccination herd immunity required will vary depending on the transmission rate - iirc wild type was estimated to be in low 70s but saw something the other day that Delta might mean closer to 85% (but on plus side hopefully could add in some natural immunity protection from those previously infected but as yet unvaccinated). Was all very speculative as they are still trying to firm down Delta’s transmission rate but will try to find it.

I've lost the will to follow it all (I admire your stamina!), but is the Indian one similar to the Kent one in that it's more virulent but also less harmful?

 

[toffee82]

On BBC live feed

"Of the 12,383 new cases as of 3 June, 464 went on to present at emergency care and 126 were admitted to hospital.

Of those, 83 were unvaccinated, 28 had one dose of vaccine and three had both doses, he says.".

Three out of 12,000 odd had both vaccines. Amazing really.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I've lost the will to follow it all (I admire your stamina!), but is the Indian one similar to the Kent one in that it's more virulent but also less harmful?

I’m a data geek - I love this kinda stuff (although obviously would prefer the underlying topic to be less harmful)

Still very tentative of course and hopefully with more data it will change (Kent was initially flagged as potentially more harmful) but current Sage analysis is both more transmissible and more severe.

 

[LinekersLegs]

@Bruce Wayne

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[PaulPowersTash]

'There was 1 death within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 7 June 2021.'

 

[LinekersLegs]

@Bruce Wayne Wales has been doing a superb job with vaccination rates (which is a bit odd as they have exactly the same supply constraints as rest of UK but that is a post for another day). However it does mean that is a good place to watch on both cases and hospitalizations

 

[dholliday]

'There was 1 death within 28 days of a positive test for coronavirus reported on 7 June 2021.'

that's actually pretty good, no?