Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[longers]

I’d suggest the people who keep comparing it to flu listen to an actual expert on pandemics explain why it’s considered a big deal relative to common flu, It’s only 20 odd minutes long,

The Coronavirus Goes Global (Published 2020)

The illness is on every continent except Antarctica, with more new cases now being reported outside China than within. But how threatening is the outbreak, really?

www.nytimes.com

 

[davek]

I’d suggest the people who keep comparing it to flu listen to an actual expert on pandemics explain why it’s considered a big deal relative to common flu, It’s only 20 odd minutes long,

The Coronavirus Goes Global (Published 2020)

The illness is on every continent except Antarctica, with more new cases now being reported outside China than within. But how threatening is the outbreak, really?

www.nytimes.com

Now America have woken up to it I feel sure that Bruce Willis, Tom Cruise and Keanu Reeves will kick this virus's ass.

 

[davek]

I’d suggest the people who keep comparing it to flu listen to an actual expert on pandemics explain why it’s considered a big deal relative to common flu, It’s only 20 odd minutes long,

The Coronavirus Goes Global (Published 2020)

The illness is on every continent except Antarctica, with more new cases now being reported outside China than within. But how threatening is the outbreak, really?

www.nytimes.com

His comparison with the Spanish Flu is bogus. Three years that lasted for to get that death total. A vaccine will take months here, many/most presume.

 

[Tipp blue]

Now America have woken up to it I feel sure that Bruce Willis, Tom Cruise and Keanu Reeves will kick this virus's ass.

Ah Dave you're back... under self quarantine was it?

 

[LinekersLegs]

The death rate on that ship is approaching 10%, which perhaps tells you everything to know about the age of those who go on cruises.

The infection rates are out of date but even with the staff being younger pretty clear that most of the ships passengers were in a particularly vulnerable group

 

[LinekersLegs]

His comparison with the Spanish Flu is bogus. Three years that lasted for to get that death total. A vaccine will take months here, many/most presume.

“Months” can still be a pretty wide range - hopefully with all the resources it will be on the lower side of the range but still takes time to conduct the necessary trials.

 

[Death]

It’ll be absolutely criminal of the government to let thousands of people congregate every weekend while this thing spreads. Need football cancelled ASAP.

 

[sbbefc]

It’ll be absolutely criminal of the government to let thousands of people congregate every weekend while this thing spreads. Need football cancelled ASAP.

Yeah all sporting events should have been played behind closed doors weeks ago. Due to the long incubation period it was blindingly obvious that it was going to spread like it has. Johnson doesn't give a toss.

 

[RAFUH]

His comparison with the Spanish Flu is bogus. Three years that lasted for to get that death total. A vaccine will take months here, many/most presume.

A comparison is iffy given modern medicine.
That said....
If by months you mean 9-12 then you are correct. A few are just moving into animal trials. There's a lot of steps after that before they can move to mass production.

 

[RAFUH]

“Months” can still be a pretty wide range - hopefully with all the resources it will be on the lower side of the range but still takes time to conduct the necessary trials.

I heard 9 months - absolute best case scenario if everything went perfect
Glad this report is being conservative though and likely more realistic

 

[davek]

A comparison is iffy given modern medicine.
That said....
If by months you mean 9-12 then you are correct. A few are just moving into animal trials. There's a lot of steps after that before they can move to mass production.

I listened to the NY Times podcast @longers linked and the expert, Donald G McNeil, was asked what his worst and best case scenarios. What you suggest was best case scenario, which I thought was alarmist.

I do think there's now an element of scaring populations to go along with isolation measures and basic hygiene and that projections are designed to hammer that p.o.v. home.

 

[Jebus_lives]

His comparison with the Spanish Flu is bogus. Three years that lasted for to get that death total. A vaccine will take months here, many/most presume.

A lot of risk assumptions about pandemic are based on that as a data source. Which is why pandemic flu sits so high on the national risk register.

 

[LinekersLegs]

I listened to the NY Times podcast @longers linked and the expert, Donald G McNeil, was asked what his worst and best case scenarios. What you suggest was best case scenario, which I thought was alarmist.

I do think there's now an element of scaring populations to go along with isolation measures and basic hygiene and that projections are designed to hammer that p.o.v. home.

Anything is possible Dave - they could be erring on worse case scenario to reinforce compliance or they could be erring on best case to try and calm stock markets or the reality could that the timeframe purely depends on luck and how similar it is to other viruses that they have vaccines for.

Personally, especially since I have an 80 year old dad who is about to have heart surgery, I am going to keep washing my bloody hands!

 

[Jebus_lives]

I listened to the NY Times podcast @longers linked and the expert, Donald G McNeil, was asked what his worst and best case scenarios. What you suggest was best case scenario, which I thought was alarmist.

I do think there's now an element of scaring populations to go along with isolation measures and basic hygiene and that projections are designed to hammer that p.o.v. home.

Tbh you shouldn't need to scare populations to go along with basic hygiene

 

[Jebus_lives]

Anything is possible Dave - they could be erring on worse case scenario to reinforce compliance or they could be erring on best case to try and calm stock markets or the reality could that the timeframe purely depends on luck and how similar it is to other viruses that they have vaccines for.

Personally, especially since I have an 80 year old dad who is about to have heart surgery, I am going to keep washing my bloody hands!

You need to understand what the worse case scenario is so that you know where to pitch your planning arrangements and what you can reasonably expect to deliver.

It's just sensible activity to prepare for the worse.