Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

Just reading this again, in terms of the overall, one dose roll out.

I know the study isn’t peer reviewed, but reading that it seems to indicate, there have been positive cases on a growing scale 7 weeks post first dose vaccination - declining immunity, with a lower viral load.

Im mining and interpreting that data, but does it indicate the timeline and risk proportion of the one dose strategy to future transmission, if applied to the general population. I.E from seven weeks post dose 1 to second dose at 12 weeks, there is decreased protection - sorry I know immmaking big leaps there and interrupting, but it’s one of the first things I’ve seen data wise, on the break out of the U.K. one dose strategy.

I’ll try and see if can find the actual paper at half time and see if they expand on the 7 weeks bit.

 

[arminisgod]

Pubs were rammed round here. It was torture cycling past them.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Just reading this again, in terms of the overall, one dose roll out.

I know the study isn’t peer reviewed, but reading that it seems to indicate, there have been positive cases on a growing scale 7 weeks post first dose vaccination for those who received one dose- declining immunity, with a however lower viral load.

Im mining and interpreting that data I know , but does it indicate the timeline and risk proportion of the one dose strategy to future transmission, if applied to the general population. I.E from seven weeks post dose 1 to second dose at 12 weeks, there is decreased protection - sorry I know i making big leaps there and interrupting, perhaps assuming but it’s one of the first things I’ve seen data wise, on the break out of the U.K. one dose strategy and impact on immunity.

Vaccine effectiveness of the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (VIVALDI study)

Background The effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in frail older adults living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) is uncertain. We estimated protective effects of the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines against infection in this population. Methods Cohort study comparing vaccinated...

www.medrxiv.org

 

[Neiler]

Vaccine effectiveness of the first dose of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 against SARS-CoV-2 infection in residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (VIVALDI study)

Background The effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in frail older adults living in Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) is uncertain. We estimated protective effects of the first dose of ChAdOx1 and BNT162b2 vaccines against infection in this population. Methods Cohort study comparing vaccinated...

www.medrxiv.org

Thanks mate, it’s exactly as you reported it.

To be honest I think they miss the smoking gun of findings here and that is the real world trajectory of the one dose strategy and the declining protection over after the period of seven weeks. It raises more questions then answers, the risk, considering the five week gap, between dose 1 and dose 2. Seems they had a cohort of people vaccinated who got Covid at a time after dose 1, when was that and what was the frequency and what does that tell us? It’s quite amazing that this seems like the first bit of data of any potential heightened risk around the one dose strategy.....

 

[LinekersLegs]

Just reading this again, in terms of the overall, one dose roll out.

I know the study isn’t peer reviewed, but reading that it seems to indicate, there have been positive cases on a growing scale 7 weeks post first dose vaccination for those who received one dose- declining immunity, with a however lower viral load.

Im mining and interpreting that data I know , but does it indicate the timeline and risk proportion of the one dose strategy to future transmission, if applied to the general population. I.E from seven weeks post dose 1 to second dose at 12 weeks, there is decreased protection - sorry I know i making big leaps there and interrupting, perhaps assuming but it’s one of the first things I’ve seen data wise, on the break out of the U.K. one dose strategy and impact on immunity.

Perhaps I’m misinterpreting it but this bit kinda jumped out
“At 49 or more days, the estimates were much less precise and no longer significantly different to the unvaccinated group (aHR 0·49, 95% CI 0·20, 1·17).”

I really hope there is some more detailed follow up on the post 49 day period across all age groups but especially this one.

 

[Neiler]

Perhaps I’m misinterpreting it but this bit kinda jumped out
“At 49 or more days, the estimates were much less precise and no longer significantly different to the unvaccinated group (aHR 0·49, 95% CI 0·20, 1·17).”

I really hope there is some more detailed follow up on the post 49 day period across all age groups but especially this one.

It really needs follow up mate, in fact it’s quite amazing at this stage that there hasn’t been much data analysed and published on the 12 week one dose strategy, this is some of the first stuff I’ve seen and it leaves big questions.

Isnt it actually quite amazing that the article was presented with such a positive headline.

Something else you’d look at would be perhaps reduced immune systems in LTC residents as a variable, but then balance that against LTC being controlled environments, you’d assume at this point they would have IPPC controls and protocols in place, while say today around the U.K., you’d have a lot of the gen pop mingling in beer gardens in far less controlled environments.....

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[peteblue]

Care home residents in the U.K. still only have 1 dose? With 56%-64% reduced risk rate, that lasts for seven weeks, what happens after that? Say in week 8.- I’m not sure that’s such a great outcome or approach. Surely a case to be made for double dosing those LTC residents over those in their 40/50s.

Over here (Ireland), has seen a 97% reduction in Covid incidence in long term residential care with a two dose strategy of the MRNA’s as per the 21 days advice.

They are interesting comparrisons, while the U.K. approach has clearly enabled a reduced societal case incidence, i wonder is there a moral question for two dosing the likes of LTC residents to increase protection and continue to single dose the rank and file - that said you could have the knock on effect of risk reduction in LTC, if more in society are vaccinated as overall cases reduce and as such transmissibility. I’m arguing with myself now.

All very interesting......goes back to what you said earlier about no right linear approach to national rollout.

The U.K. have done over 7.5M second doses...the care home people will have more than been covered.....

 

[Goat]

@davek

 

[davek]

@davek

Imagine the warmer nights and weekends.

The June/July lockdown is assured. This place will be over run...and all the shielders will be facing another year stuck indoors...but that's ok...as long as scumbags like that have a few nights out and completely disregard all that's gone on and all those killed and hospitalised so far.

 

[Goat]

Imagine the warmer nights and weekends.

The June/July lockdown is assured. This place will be over run...and all the shielders will be facing another year stuck indoors...but that's ok...as long as scumbags like that have a few nights out and completely disregard all that's gone on and all those killed and hospitalised so far.

But most of the shielders are jabbed up Dave.

Any increase in cases will hopefully be the younger healthier people.

 

[BlueStevie35]

5k. Wow you selling cars now?

We wish, when my mate told me I was shell shocked, in 7 years I don’t think any one customer has spent more than 5-600

 

[BlueStevie35]

Later than I should have done but could only check the figures at half time

Hospitals - 12 deaths were announced today, down 9 on yesterday and down 11 on last Monday. 11 deaths were in English hospitals, same total as yesterday and down 4 on last week. The 7 day rolling average falls to 31.14

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 13 deaths were announced today, up 6 on yesterday and down 13 on last Monday. The 7 day rolling average falls to an even 34

For the 60 day cut off, 10 deaths were announced today, down 17 on yesterday and down 21 on last Monday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 72.57

 

[davek]

But most of the shielders are jabbed up Dave.

Any increase in cases will hopefully be the younger healthier people.

...and that creates an environment where variants that can undermine the vaccines.

 

[Goat]

...and that creates an environment where variants that can undermine the vaccines.

You need to stop worrying about variants spreading in the UK Dave.

Concern yourself with the 1s they are making in India and Brazil currently.

But we have no control over those, so worry when there's a reason to worry.

See above, the death rates are dropping, hospital admissions are dropping, get out there and sink a cold 1.