Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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Brennan said:
You said we could have had 2.5m people double dosed by the 8th of Feb, but that’s impossible as hundreds of thousands of the 2.29m vaccinations up to Jan 8th were AZ.

If you’re saying you acknowledge that hundreds of thousands of AZ doses were given by Jan 8th then that number of 2.5m double dosed by Feb 8th is wide of the mark by half a million. It would have to be Pfizer for all 2.29m second doses to be close, but even then you wouldn’t hit 2.5m.

You actually said 2.5m to 4.5m double dosed by Feb 8th in the original post which was definitely impossible. Even if 3 weeks was used as the schedule 4.5m is far higher than what would have been achievable. You’d have to have vaccinated another 2 million people with Pfizer in the following week and vaccinated them all again three weeks later to be at 4.5m double dosed by Feb 8th.
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No, I said we could have had two million by that point - the 2.5 to 4.5 million was a guess at what might have been possible because we don’t know what share of the doses given between Jan 8th and Feb 8th were Pfizer doses. 10.3 million first doses were given in that period, don’t forget.
 
tsubaki said:
No, I said we could have had two million by that point - the 2.5 to 4.5 million was a guess at what might have been possible because we don’t know what share of the doses given between Jan 8th and Feb 8th were Pfizer doses. 10.3 million first doses were given in that period, don’t forget.
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But you’re ignoring the spacing ?

2.29m is the total number of either two doses or one dose, as of Jan 8th. So assuming all of those vaccinations followed a four week schedule you could have had 2.29m double dosed by around Feb 4th.

How do you then get to 4 million double dosed by Feb 8th ?
 
tsubaki said:
No, I said we could have had two million by that point - the 2.5 to 4.5 million was a guess at what might have been possible because we don’t know what share of the doses given between Jan 8th and Feb 8th were Pfizer doses. 10.3 million first doses were given in that period, don’t forget.
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While you are still doing your maths to prove a point about how many would have been fully protected, I.e double dosed, have you given any thought to the millions who at this point would no longer have any protection yet be in ‘vulnerable groups’ or the lives Thousands may have lost by following your strict double dose proposal. The U.K. have played this very well, getting jabs into the arms of as many people as possible to provide a reasonable degree of protection and it seems to be paying off. This lesson will be incredibly useful as vaccines are rolled out around the world......the argument has taken place, a U.K. decision has been made, the rollout is providing protection and other countries will adopt the same strategy as a result....
 
peteblue said:
While you are still doing your maths to prove a point about how many would have been fully protected, I.e double dosed, have you given any thought to the millions who at this point would no longer have any protection yet be in ‘vulnerable groups’ or the lives Thousands may have lost by following your strict double dose proposal. The U.K. have played this very well, getting jabs into the arms of as many people as possible to provide a reasonable degree of protection and it seems to be paying off. This lesson will be incredibly useful as vaccines are rolled out around the world......the argument has taken place, a U.K. decision has been made, the rollout is providing protection and other countries will adopt the same strategy as a result....
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Also I believe data was posted in here yesterday that showed the drop in cases and hospitalisations has been much more significant among the age groups who are being vaccinated ? Which would seem to suggest that one dose for many has worked.
 
Brennan said:
But you’re ignoring the spacing ?

2.29m is the total number of either two doses or one dose, as of Jan 8th. So assuming all of those doses followed a four week schedule you could have had 2.3m double dosed by around Feb 4th.

How do you get to 4 million double dosed by Feb 8th ?
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Look, this is a pretty snide argument given that I’ve not said four week schedule (I said three weeks), and again I said 2 million by February 8th as a minimum number of potential fully vaccinated people; the rest is guesswork.

The guesswork comes from not knowing how many of the first dose vaccinations done between the 8th of January and the 8th of February were Pfizer ones. If it’s just at the level of the month earlier (so only 1.8 million using your figures) then with a three week schedule you’d have the people who had a first vaccine between January 9th and January 15th coming for their second dose before February 8th. This would be around 450,000 people.

If there are more Pfizer first doses in the 10.3 million given out that month - say 50% - then you’d have many more people from that first week getting a second dose before the 8th of February.
 
Brennan said:
Also I believe data was posted in here yesterday that showed the drop in cases and hospitalisations has been much more significant among the age groups who are being vaccinated ? Which would seem to suggest that one dose for many has worked.
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Indeed.....
 
peteblue said:
While you are still doing your maths to prove a point about how many would have been fully protected, I.e double dosed, have you given any thought to the millions who at this point would no longer have any protection yet be in ‘vulnerable groups’ or the lives Thousands may have lost by following your strict double dose proposal. The U.K. have played this very well, getting jabs into the arms of as many people as possible to provide a reasonable degree of protection and it seems to be paying off. This lesson will be incredibly useful as vaccines are rolled out around the world......the argument has taken place, a U.K. decision has been made, the rollout is providing protection and other countries will adopt the same strategy as a result....
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careful pete, by mentioning the “millions who would no longer have any protection” you are kind of trashing @Brennan s argument
 

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Bruce Wayne said:
They don't have a SAGE style committee, so the health minister generally calls the shots and the last three appointments have been non-politicial. I'd just have thought that they'd have chosen someone with a background in epidemiology rather than skin disease. It's like putting Mo Farah in charge of Everton and saying "it's all sport - it'll be fine"
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Unless our home form improves, Mo could well be in charge by next season
 
tsubaki said:
careful pete, by mentioning the “millions who would no longer have any protection” you are kind of trashing @Brennan s argument
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I‘m just replying to your incessant raising of two dosing within 4 weeks versus the strategy of 12 weeks and not trying to prove or disprove anyone’s view ....
 
Does it really matter how we got there anymore?

The strategy, a gamble, paid off, and we've vaccinated (fully) a lot of people and a lot of people have got their first doses.

This is good :)

They took the decision, seemingly for a few reasons: as explained by Whitty initially, the idea was that it was better to have more people with the a fair chunk of protection (initially thought to be around 70-80% but actually turned out to be nearer 90%) sooner, than less people as much protection as possible. In turn, that was clearly so that we could, in theory, open up again sooner and as such stop the strain of lockdowns on society, the economy etc, while simultaneously saving lives.
 
tsubaki said:
Look, this is a pretty snide argument given that I’ve not said four week schedule (I said three weeks), and again I said 2 million by February 8th as a minimum number of potential fully vaccinated people; the rest is guesswork.

The guesswork comes from not knowing how many of the first dose vaccinations done between the 8th of January and the 8th of February were Pfizer ones. If it’s just at the level of the month earlier (so only 1.8 million using your figures) then with a three week schedule you’d have the people who had a first vaccine between January 9th and January 15th coming for their second dose before February 8th. This would be around 450,000 people.

If there are more Pfizer first doses in the 10.3 million given out that month - say 50% - then you’d have many more people from that first week getting a second dose before the 8th of February.
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Not sure why you’re saying that.

If you use 21 days you’re still not at 4m double dosed by Feb 8th.
 
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