Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

I don't often disagree with you LL, but I think half assed isn't the right way to put it. The UK took a huge chance but it was based on what was already known about vaccines and how we generally react to them. We've got most things wrong during the pandemic no doubt, but I think the dosage strategy was an informed, calculated risk.

My issue isn’t with the risk per se, it is the lack of data collection and informed consent of the participants.

It was essentially a change in dosage trial of a drug (itself with a very short history) but without a) any control group comparison b) any real time data collection and I’ll stress again c) informed consent of the participants.

Do I think doing such a trial was supported by the facts on the ground and general vaccine knowledge - yes. But mRNA vaccines are very new, we don’t know a great deal about them so data collection to my mind has to be a key part of any rollout. And ethically I have a real issue with people not being given full information of the potential risk they are taking on.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

tbf the risk on the left is still being determined but in concept I feel this is useful messaging

 

[Wizard]

My issue isn’t with the risk per se, it is the lack of data collection and informed consent of the participants.

It was essentially a change in dosage trial of a drug (itself with a very short history) but without a) any control group comparison b) any real time data collection and I’ll stress again c) informed consent of the participants.

Do I think doing such a trial was supported by the facts on the ground and general vaccine knowledge - yes. But mRNA vaccines are very new, we don’t know a great deal about them so data collection to my mind has to be a key part of any rollout. And ethically I have a real issue with people not being given full information of the potential risk they are taking on.

Can you really have informed consent with what are essentially experimental vaccines? It's a fluid situation that we are trying to find a way out of.

I guess I'm just not ok with the phrase half assed. The UK has been worse than half assed in its dealing with the pandemic in general, but I don't think the vaccine strategy has been.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Can you really have informed consent with what are essentially experimental vaccines? It's a fluid situation that we are trying to find a way out of.

I guess I'm just not ok with the phrase half assed. The UK has been worse than half assed in its dealing with the pandemic in general, but I don't think the vaccine strategy has been.

In reality no, you can’t as you don’t know the full risks you are taking on. But there is a difference in my mind in getting people to sign up for something they know is truly experimental (as the volunteers who got the initial doses of all the vaccines) and a broad countrywide strategy of delaying dosages against the recommendation of the company who made the vaccine without telling them that is the case.

As for half assed - I guess it is in the eye of the beholder! And in general I think the UK has been pretty good on vaccines especially in priority of most at risk elderly - the decision to prefer them rather than front line healthcare workers for instance can’t have been an easy decision to make but I believe the data supports that approach. Similarly to use AZ on over 60s when there wasn’t full data.

But the specific strategy with Pfizer vaccine I believe has been poor and even more a huge missed opportunity. It would be great if for instance as a result of UK rollout we had data on after 9 or 12 weels weeks how many were single shot Pfizer recipients were asymptotic , symptotic or hospitalized compared to the two shot regimen. Since my definition of half assed is “lacking significance, adequacy, or completeness” that it why I still feel it is an appropriate description.

 

[Wizard]

In reality no, you can’t as you don’t know the full risks you are taking on. But there is a difference in my mind in getting people to sign up for something they know is truly experimental (as the volunteers who got the initial doses of all the vaccines) and a broad countrywide strategy of delaying dosages against the recommendation of the company who made the vaccine without telling them that is the case.

As for half assed - I guess it is in the eye of the beholder! And in general I think the UK has been pretty good on vaccines especially in priority of most at risk elderly - the decision to prefer them rather than front line healthcare workers for instance can’t have been an easy decision to make but I believe the data supports that approach. Similarly to use AZ on over 60s when there wasn’t full data.

But the specific strategy with Pfizer vaccine I believe has been poor and even more a huge missed opportunity. It would be great if for instance as a result of UK rollout we had data on after 9 or 12 weels weeks how many were single shot Pfizer recipients were asymptotic , symptotic or hospitalized compared to the two shot regimen. Since my definition of half assed is “lacking significance, adequacy, or completeness” that it why I still feel it is an appropriate description.

Well I hope that data will come soon. 12 weeks takes us to late March (from the strategy change) so hopefully they are compiling the data and will let us know soon

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

tbf the risk on the left is still being determined but in concept I feel this is useful messaging

Think It's a terrible comparison and the logic is awful and will be laughed at by many anti vaxers, for instance never heard of two cigarettes over 12 weeks leading to a blood clot maybe 20 a day over a decade. Besides Nicotine has been noted as an effective treatment of COVID, it's a paradox world.

 

[grandjoeblue]

I do find it odd that gyms are opening tomorrow and you don't need to wear a mask in gyms. I know its hard to work out in a mask but it doesn't make sense to have to wear one in all indoor venues except for gyms?

 

[Brennan]

I do find it odd that gyms are opening tomorrow and you don't need to wear a mask in gyms. I know its hard to work out in a mask but it doesn't make sense to have to wear one in all indoor venues except for gyms?

It does make sense for the reason you said. It’s dangerous to exercise while wearing a mask.

Allowing an exemption for gyms doesn’t diminish the benefit of mask wearing in all other settings.

 

[tsubaki]

Can you show me the data on this, as I don’t think it’s true.

sure - the data is here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (scroll down to "Number of people given at least one dose of COVID vaccine" and "Number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19").

By January 8th (a month after the vaccination campaign started) we'd fully vaccinated (all with Pfizer at that point) nearly 400,000 people, with 2.29 million given at least one dose (though that data comes from Jan 10th). We were second in the world at that point in terms of first and second doses given out. Most of those will have been Pfizer jabs (AZ had only started in the first week of January).

By February 8th we were at 12.65 million first jabs (still second), but only on just under 520,000 second (now sixth). Its difficult to say what % of the doses given between Jan 8th and Feb 8th were Pfizer doses, but we can make an educated guess that the first lot (those from December 8th to January 8th) would be almost exclusively Pfizer and so should have been eligible for their second dose of Pfizer by Feb 8th at the latest - so we'd at a minimum be at the two million fully vaccinated people by that point (which would have put us second).

In reality it might have been rather more than that, given that we didn't stop using Pfizer at any point - though that is where guesswork starts to come in to it because of the lack of info as to how many Pfizer doses were done and when (but anywhere from 2.5 million to 4.5 million fully vaccinated people by Feb 8th is possible, given how the vaccination programme was ramping up in January).

By March 8th we were at 22.59 million first doses (still second), but now tenth in terms of second doses with 1.18 million. Third was only at just under 4 million, so even the most conservative estimate based on how many doses had been given a month between December 8th and January 8th (our slowest bit of vaccinations, and assuming the Pfizer supply stayed at that level) would give us at least 4 million potentially done by March 8th (and it could almost certainly have been several million more than that).

 

[davek]

“the researchers examined around 400 members of Clalit Health who tested positive for the virus 14 days or more after receiving the first dose of the vaccine in comparison to 400 unvaccinated people who caught corona, too. The cohorts were matched according to age, sector, gender and more.

The study showed that the South African variant is more likely to break through the vaccine’s protective effect, even after two doses have been administered and more than a week has passed.”

They did mate, they are rolling with the three week intervals. They have a deal with Pfizer that supply won’t drop off until 95% of their population is vaccinated.

It's a good job that SA variant is relatively inefficient transmitting.

 

[grandjoeblue]

It does make sense for the reason you said. It’s dangerous to exercise while wearing a mask.

Allowing an exemption for gyms doesn’t diminish the benefit of mask wearing in all other settings.

Is it dangerous? Some countries such as Spain have mandated masks in gyms. It definitely makes it harder to do cardio but I don't know whether its dangerous.

 

[Brennan]

sure - the data is here: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations (scroll down to "Number of people given at least one dose of COVID vaccine" and "Number of people fully vaccinated against COVID-19").

By January 8th (a month after the vaccination campaign started) we'd fully vaccinated (all with Pfizer at that point) nearly 400,000 people, with 2.29 million given at least one dose (though that data comes from Jan 10th). We were second in the world at that point in terms of first and second doses given out. Most of those will have been Pfizer jabs (AZ had only started in the first week of January).

By February 8th we were at 12.65 million first jabs (still second), but only on just under 520,000 second (now sixth). Its difficult to say what % of the doses given between Jan 8th and Feb 8th were Pfizer doses, but we can make an educated guess that the first lot (those from December 8th to January 8th) would be almost exclusively Pfizer and so should have been eligible for their second dose of Pfizer by Feb 8th at the latest - so we'd at a minimum be at the two million fully vaccinated people by that point (which would have put us second).

In reality it might have been rather more than that, given that we didn't stop using Pfizer at any point - though that is where guesswork starts to come in to it because of the lack of info as to how many Pfizer doses were done and when (but anywhere from 2.5 million to 4.5 million fully vaccinated people by Feb 8th is possible, given how the vaccination programme was ramping up in January).

By March 8th we were at 22.59 million first doses (still second), but now tenth in terms of second doses with 1.18 million. Third was only at just under 4 million, so even the most conservative estimate based on how many doses had been given a month between December 8th and January 8th (our slowest bit of vaccinations, and assuming the Pfizer supply stayed at that level) would give us at least 4 million potentially done by March 8th (and it could almost certainly have been several million more than that).

Your dates on AZ are incorrect. 500,000 doses were available and were used in vaccinations from the 4th of January. That is why there was such a significant increase in the total number of doses administered between January 4th and January 9th.

 

[davek]

Scientist Katalin Kariko who made the key discovery about RNA that led to the Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech vaccines. A great story of scientific passion and perseverance.

Kati Kariko Helped Shield the World From the Coronavirus (Published 2021)

Collaborating with devoted colleagues, Dr. Kariko laid the groundwork for the mRNA vaccines turning the tide of the pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

By all accounts intense and single-minded, Dr. Kariko lives for “the bench” — the spot in the lab where she works. She cares little for fame. “The bench is there, the science is good,” she shrugged in a recent interview. “Who cares?”

What a great attitude. A massive distinction to the show offs involved in Oxford who have become media celebrities.