They sort of did....
6 JANUARY 2021
How the UK lost control of the mutant strain of Covid-19
I
n July, scientific advisers warned of the potential for a significant coronavirus variant to occur in the winter. But instead of preparing for the worst, the government created the ideal conditions for the virus to mutate – and thrive.
Phil Whitaker.
.....In July, the government’s scientific advisory group Sage warned of the potential for a clinically significant mutation to occur during the winter. At the same time, the shadow group Independent Sage repeatedly urged the Johnson administration to take advantage of the summer hiatus to change its policy to a “zero Covid” strategy. This could have driven infection rates into the ground. Instead, we got “Eat Out to Help Out” and the progressive easing of restrictions that allowed daily case numbers to continue in four figures right into the autumn, pump priming the inevitable second wave. With countless billions of viral replications now occurring every day, the chance of advantageous mutations arising is high – far higher than in countries such as Taiwan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, where “zero Covid” policies have kept case numbers, and hence viral replications, at tiny levels. And our ailing TTI system, incapable of aggressive suppression of outbreaks, helped create conditions in which any new strain could start to flourish.
It was certainly bad luck that the VOC arose in the UK; there are many other countries with similarly compromised approaches to the pandemic. South Africa appears to have incubated an even more infectious variant, 501.V2, with a greater degree of structural change to the spike protein targeted by extant vaccines. But, like all “accidents”, the VOC wasn’t purely a freak occurrence. With its failure to heed warnings about quite how rapidly and seriously the Covid pandemic could change, the Johnson government has been caught playing with fire. As a consequence, we, and now the rest of the world, are going to get burned.
In July, scientific advisers warned of the potential for a significant coronavirus variant to occur in the winter. But instead of preparing for the worst, the government created the ideal conditions for the virus to mutate – and thrive.
www.newstatesman.com