Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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The variants will outstrip the vaccine.

The way things are shaping up we'll be seeing 3/4 vaccine shots per year for Covid19 given the way it can mutate. Logistically it'as almost impossible to keep on top of, and physically - how can we ask 80 year olds to get 3/4 vaccines per year?

The only way to get on top of covid19 is to be disciplined and remain socially distanced, mask wearing, wash hands regularly and have a vigilant track and trace system that imposes a lot more control over people who contract the virus than it does now.

Vaccines will take the edge off the surges, they wont prevent them.
So when do we come out of this Davek?
 
Hospital figures - 31 deaths were announced today, down 40 on yesterday and down 18 on last Sunday. 23 deaths were in English hospitals, down 35 on yesterday and down 12 on last week. The 7 day rolling average falls to 66.71

All settings - for the 28 day cut off, 19 deaths were announced today, down 39 on yesterday and down 14 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 62.43

For the 60 day cut off, 32 deaths were announced today, down 97 on yesterday and down 14 on last Sunday. The 7 day rolling average falls to 136.57

When you do you think the 7 day average will be below 50? In a week or so? Seems to have dropped quite considerably recently.

Do you have any numbers on how many are currently in an ICU?
 
All of those nations need the vaccine.

End goal is immunity, or as much as poss.

Vaccines are a massive part of the answer, or there wouldn't have been such a rush to make them.

We can carry on doing all of the other things and likely will do. But if people aren't vaccinated against the illness, it'd still get them.

As it is, the vaccines severely reduce risk of hospitalisation or even serious illness from COVID.
We are in the early days with these vaccines. They are first generation. I really wouldn't be putting as much faith in them being as effective as you suggest.

The vaccine story was the story for the bleak winer months. They will help, but the hyping up of them was, in a lot of regards, just us all being chummied along at a time of incessant bad news.

The words of the chief medical officer, SAGE and Independent SAGE all recognise that the really heavy lifting has to be done via the continued use of social distancing, masks and especially a tough as teak track and test system.
 
It looks highly likely that, going forward, covid deaths will be lower than flu deaths have historically been due to the success of the vaccines.

What’s the situation here?

We committed to buy multiple vaccines.

The one developed here (Oxford) is the one that we produce here so access is easier. It is safe and effective (proven). If a vaccine prevents death in someone who would have died then that is a success (does this to almost 100%). It costs a fraction of the others and will be able to save more lives because of that. It can be easily stored and transported. It's a marvel of scientific achievement.
AZ is cheap and not as efficacious as Pfizer, and not as secure against current variants as Pfizer.
 
Come out of lockdown? We shouldn't be relaxing as much as we're about to see. This will be a repeat of last summer and we'll see another 100,000 dead at the end of next winter.
Last summer deaths were at the level they are currently and didn’t spike hard till it hit autumn/winter. This coming week will be the 4th since the first step of the roadmap, the schools reopening, we haven’t seen any significant rises in deaths from that but an increase in testing numbers.

Tomorrow sees the rule of 6 come back into place, coinciding with many schools beginning the Easter break with parts of the country set for warm weather but very little in the way of places to visit for an outdoors meet up. As long as things stay low for them two weeks, the next step will be non essential retail reopening on the 12th April, that will be the big test
 
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