Does anyone have real doubts that the fourth stage for COVID won't happen in 2021?
I think we'll get to stage 3 but the brakes will then be put on.
I'm very confident it won't.
That's the 1918 flu pandemic in Wales, fairly atypical of how it went everywhere. Relatively mild first wave followed by lethal second and third waves. Granted, coronavirus and flu aren't the same thing, but respiratory pandemics tend to follow this general pattern.
Critically, in 1918 there was no vaccination program in effect, so what you saw was the second wave batter most, then the third wave take the remainder - for COVID, there won't be anything like that third wave.
What we will probably see around October again is an increase in infections, but no return to lockdown, as there will be no subsequent increase in deaths and hospitalisations as a result, meaning no pressure on the NHS, meaning no lockdown.
Everyone will be vaccinated by around July/August. At that point, this becomes a seasonal virus. The 1918 flu strain is still in circulation now with various mutations to it; COVID will become a similar thing. If COVID mutates, we meet that threat with booster shots once they are identified and before it's causing any real significant harm. Everyone admitted to A&E with a respiratory illness will be screened for COVID in the future. Our ability to turn around vaccine adaptations to meet any variant will become increasingly rapid. Vaccine take-up will increase sharply - 70% of over 65s take the flu vaccine, around 10% of every other age group; that will change. All in all, we'll be looking at sharply reduced deaths from all respiratory illness this winter, but more of it.