Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Tubey]

LOL what a stupid thing to say, especially considering Belgium's own management of the crisis. I think it was about the Pfizer vaccine though?

No was AZ.

Brussels blocks Dublin from buying Oxford jab in Brexit payback

The vaccine has yet to be given the green light by the EU

www.dublinlive.ie

 

[roydo]

The R rate isn't based on numbers. It's hard to explain but to give an example...

If you have one case and then another one, and that was it - a total number of cases of two - then the R rate would be 1.0.

But if you have 1 million cases and then another 1 million, the R rate would still be 1.0.

So in the summer, the case rate was low but consistently low, so the R rate was stable around and just below 1 - in circulation but not exponential. But now, although the amount of cases are substantially higher, the growth is negative, thus a lower R rate.

Thats kinda what I was gonna say; its about the growth, not the numbers. That said, I thought the new varient would have made the growth quicker.

 

[Tubey]

Thats kinda what I was gonna say; its about the growth, not the numbers. That said, I thought the new varient would have made the growth quicker.

It did, temporarily. Its why it spiked sharply, quicker exponential growth. But it also means the R number will fall more sharply due to a lockdown, as the case rate is coming from a higher "starting point".

 

[sbbefc]

The R rate isn't based on numbers. It's hard to explain but to give an example...

If you have one case and then another one, and that was it - a total number of cases of two - then the R rate would be 1.0.

But if you have 1 million cases and then another 1 million, the R rate would still be 1.0.

So in the summer, the case rate was low but consistently low, so the R rate was stable around and just below 1 - in circulation but not exponential. But now, although the amount of cases are substantially higher, the growth is negative, thus a lower R rate.

Makes sense. Cheers

 

[navidson]

The R rate isn't based on numbers. It's hard to explain but to give an example...

If you have one case and then another one, and that was it - a total number of cases of two - then the R rate would be 1.0.

But if you have 1 million cases and then another 1 million, the R rate would still be 1.0.

So in the summer, the case rate was low but consistently low, so the R rate was stable around and just below 1 - in circulation but not exponential. But now, although the amount of cases are substantially higher, the growth is negative, thus a lower R rate.

So it was never really an effective way of communicating the numbers to the general public?

 

[Billy Dean]

No was AZ.

Brussels blocks Dublin from buying Oxford jab in Brexit payback

The vaccine has yet to be given the green light by the EU

www.dublinlive.ie

I think that article is a little bit naughty too in places. Absolutely no evidence of it being some kind of revenge bid for Brexit so a bit irresponsible to make that claim. The explanation is further down the article that the member states all signed a purchase agreement indicating nothing is shipped until EMA approval.

It does also seem the Belgian PM's comments were made a month or so ago about pfizer: https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/12/30/belgian-pm-covid/

 

[roydo]

So it was never really an effective way of communicating the numbers to the general public?

I dont recall them saying it reflected numbers. Back then, they didnt have much of a clue of them, but when they explained the R, the logic was a low number was better than a higher one.

It was all very educational back then.

 

[Tubey]

So it was never really an effective way of communicating the numbers to the general public?

It's the best way to show exponential growth in a single figure.

Say the R rate is 1.2.

Then 10 people pass it on to 12 others on average. Those 12 then pass it on to 14.4. 14.4 to 17.28. 17.28 to 20.8 and so on.

Whereas an R rate of 0.8.

10 people pass it on to 8. 8 to 6.4. 6.4 to 5.1. 5.1 to 4.

Whether that's been communicated well enough is a different story but it's the only real way of reflecting how a virus grows in a statistical way.

 

[summerisle]

 

[Tubey]

UK variable now 30 to 70% more transmissable, not 70%. Which shows the danger of stating absolutes based on preliminary data only. It was never as high as 70%.

Similarly, its not 30% more deadly. It just isn't. That is again early data and shouldnt be relied on.

 

[Sassy Colombian]

"Companies are racing to build digital passports for people to prove they've had the Covid vaccine. Currently there is no international or national coordination on the best practices for implementing vaccine passes, so groups including the airline industry and a coalition of tech and health giants are all working on their own systems."

 

[davek]

UK variable now 30 to 70% more transmissable, not 70%. Which shows the danger of stating absolutes based on preliminary data only. It was never as high as 70%.

Similarly, its not 30% more deadly. It just isn't. That is again early data and shouldnt be relied on.

It was political.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Toast]

"Companies are racing to build digital passports for people to prove they've had the Covid vaccine. Currently there is no international or national coordination on the best practices for implementing vaccine passes, so groups including the airline industry and a coalition of tech and health giants are all working on their own systems."

I’m sure I heard on the telly last night loads of vaccinated US healthcare workers have been given tickets to the Superbowl in two weeks.

 

[roydo]

I’m sure I heard on the telly last night loads of vaccinated US healthcare workers have been given tickets to the Superbowl in two weeks.

True dat. 7500 in a crowd of 22000, sommet like that.