Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

Well ultimately though confirmed cases is what the 'worst mortality rate in the world' headlines are going off?

We can only guess at the actual numbers, so we just have to use the ones which are confirmed.

I'm not denying those latest reports, just that based on the official WHO figures (so the official figures from each country) those are the mortality rates as it stands.

I think the UK one this week was per 100,000, but I'm still not sure if that's a rolling figure or what.

Aren't the worst in the world numbers based on deaths per million of population? I'm pretty sure they don't have anything to do with the number of cases. It was about 16.5 per million over the week.

Other countries might be designating deaths to other categories.

 

[BlueToff]

Comparable second wave? The two graphs you presented show nothing like a comparative pattern or volume.

The German second wave was a series of peaks and troughs and never got much over 30,000 per day at any point; the UK second wave has been a constantly climbing peak which saw between 45,000-65,000 cases per day.

Germany have had a second wave which was a lot worse than their first. In that sense, it is comparable. The UK have had a second wave a lot worse than their first (and the first was a lot worse than Germany's)

Everything is relative.

 

[BlueToff]

Aren't the worst in the world numbers based on deaths per million of population? I'm pretty sure they don't have anything to do with the number of cases. It was about 16.5 per million over the week.

Other countries might be designating deaths to other categories.

I think so. Having quickly seen that GMB interview, it looks like it's over the last 7 days - so our death rate over the last week is worse than anywhere else in the world.

 

[navidson]

Are they?

Germany is in lockdown. Hasn't France been under lockdown for the last month or so?

Netherlands is in lockdown. Spain is under curfew. Portugal is in lockdown. Italy is mostly in lockdown.

I think the only countries that are 'open' more than us are the ones that never went into lockdown or all but abandoned the policy after last spring (rightly or wrongly).

Also, mortality rate for COVID is pretty much the same across the board - there's very little difference. It's, what, 3-4% (of confirmed cases)? So it's all down to how many people who are getting infected, surely?

2.6%

 

[ForeverBlue92]

A lot of news outlets starting to come out stating that schools are likely to be closed until April. I think we all knew this would happen due to the crazy policies in December.

One point that winds me up is when they pretend that the lockdown is going to be short when everyone knows it takes months to make a decent dent into the spread.

I'm still hoping that things will reopen mid April / May but time will tell.

They say anything about the barbers?

 

[BlueToff]

2.6%

Yep, have subsequently had a look mate. Thought it was higher at first.

See my post for a bit of an overview on different countries. UK's 'official' mortality rate is at 2.6% as it stands, more than most of Europe, quite significantly down on Italy. But seems atm the UK's death rate has been the worst in the past week.

I just wonder what factors contribute to that.

Poor care? Speed of care? NHS too stretched? Poor health? Age/health of the people infected? Region (higher polluted areas, a lot of ex-miners for example in the Yorkshire and north east areas)? Ethnicity?

Think it all boils into one and then topped with a fair slice of government incompetence in exposing more people to risking infection.

 

[davek]

Germany have had a second wave which was a lot worse than their first. In that sense, it is comparable. The UK have had a second wave a lot worse than their first (and the first was a lot worse than Germany's)

Everything is relative.

So the real comparison was between Germany's own experience in each wave.

The most telling comparison is per capita fatality rate. The UK is a basket case outlier in that respect.

 

[Billy Dean]

So Germany, comparable in the sense that they've had probably one of the worst second waves in the world (alongside the UK), suggests a similar peak, but they are slightly ahead of the UK.

They had several spikes in cases across the Xmas period. One on December 31 with 32,000 cases. At a guess, the majority of the deaths as a consequence of that spike will be from the 8th and the 14th (those are the two spikes you see at the bottom-right of the death count).

They had another spike in cases on January 8th (31,000), so there may well be another spike in deaths in the coming days for Germany, too, which is obviously a worry.

However, on the positive side, they are showing a good drop off in confirmed cases, and if that sustains, then deaths will follow.

View attachment 114639

the German figures are a little bit unreliable at the moment as less testing has been done since Xmas and the health authorites have been slower to report positive tests and deaths etc due to less manpower. Cases do seem to be reducing though and the number in intensive care has reduced a bit which is good.

 

[BlueToff]

So the real comparison was between Germany's own experience in each wave.

The most telling comparison is per capita fatality rate. The UK is a basket case outlier in that respect.

That's what I was getting at. Not the numbers themselves, but the trend should generally be the same.

On the numbers, however, Germany has recorded 1000 deaths or more on eight occasions since December 30th. It's not exactly rosy there atm. I think it was a fair comparison to draw.

 

[BlueToff]

the German figures are a little bit unreliable at the moment as less testing has been done since Xmas and the health authorites have been slower to report positive tests and deaths etc due to less manpower. Cases do seem to be reducing though and the number in intensive care has reduced a bit which is good.

Thanks mate, obviously can only go off what's available.

My point was trying to be a positive one. If we look at the graphs, it's clear that when the spike in cases occur, a spike in deaths occur around 10-14 days later. Going by that logic, Germany (and the UK) will be in for more bad spikes (relatively speaking for each country) this week. However, looks like Germany's cases are dropping steadily (for whatever reason) so hopefully in 10-14 days' time, there won't be a spike in deaths.

 

[Billy Dean]

Thanks mate, obviously can only go off what's available.

My point was trying to be a positive one. If we look at the graphs, it's clear that when the spike in cases occur, a spike in deaths occur around 10-14 days later. Going by that logic, Germany (and the UK) will be in for more bad spikes (relatively speaking for each country) this week. However, looks like Germany's cases are dropping steadily (for whatever reason) so hopefully in 10-14 days' time, there won't be a spike in deaths.

Yeah things are improving but it has indeed been pretty grim here too and you're right we're entering the post holiday lag so will be interesting to see what happens in the next week or so. Hopefully it won't be too bad.

 

[Goat]

Yikes.

 

[grandjoeblue]

Utterly crazy numbers today.

Sturgeon has already said today that March seems too early got England. Very scary times indeed.

 

[COYBL25]

Utterly crazy numbers today.

Sturgeon has already said today that March seems too early got England. Very scary times indeed.

It`s shiz or bust now, it all rests on the vaccine.

You would expect to see those horrendous numbers starting dropping soon though, with the vaccination of the elderly and high risk well under way.

 

[grandjoeblue]

It`s shiz or bust now, it all rests on the vaccine.

You would expect to see those horrendous numbers starting dropping soon though, with the vaccination of the elderly and high risk well under way.

Its a real sad state of affairs. Regardless of progress with the vaccine its starting to look very unlikely that anything will reopen before about April, could even be May or later.