Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[grandjoeblue]

Are they?

Germany is in lockdown. Hasn't France been under lockdown for the last month or so?

Netherlands is in lockdown. Spain is under curfew. Portugal is in lockdown. Italy is mostly in lockdown.

I think the only countries that are 'open' more than us are the ones that never went into lockdown or all but abandoned the policy after last spring (rightly or wrongly).

Also, mortality rate for COVID is pretty much the same across the board - there's very little difference. It's, what, 3-4% (of confirmed cases)? So it's all down to how many people who are getting infected, surely?

I said some in Europe not all. There are countries which have had less restrictions but significantly less deaths. Countries towards eastern europe mainly. Maybe they are under reporting? I just find it odd that we are the worst with measures in place.

The government are a disgrace but you'd think other countries with very little measures would be worse.

 

[BlueToff]

I said some in Europe not all. There are countries which have had less restrictions but significantly less deaths. Countries towards eastern europe mainly. Maybe they are under reporting? I just find it odd that we are the worst with measures in place.

The government are a disgrace but you'd think other countries with very little measures would be worse.

Well exactly, and that's where lockdown scepticism comes into place? Do they actually do that much?

We don't know for sure but given we've had so many deaths with measures, it's probably good that we had them in place or it could have been a lot worse (and it's pretty awful as it is). But we'll never know.

 

[LouReedwalkonthewildside]

Actually convinced Harding has done the worst job imaginable. This country is a disgrace.

£30 for a kids food is sickening to some people but carry on with these consultants at £1000 per day.

It was a farce that the government appointed a conservative peer instead of an independent person with expert medical knowledge. It's not as if she didn't have history of cocking things up.

 

[BlueToff]

For example, the mortality rate in Sweden - which never locked down but has had restrictions in place - is 2%

The UK's mortality rate works out at about 2.7%

 

[Blue 1]

It was a farce that the government appointed a conservative peer instead of an independent person with expert medical knowledge. It's not as if she didn't have history of cocking things up.

The Typhoid Mary of our era. Covid Dido.

 

[BlueToff]

COVID-19 cases | WHO COVID-19 dashboard

The latest data for coronavirus (COVID-19) cases from the WHO COVID-19 dashboard.

covid19.who.int

Just looking at this, you'd expect the peak in deaths to come 10-14 days on from that Jan 8 peak in cases - as in the days since then, the case rate has shown what appears to be (hopefully) the start of a decline.

So, expecting the worst, I guess today through to Friday could show the peak in the deaths.

From what we know about the incubation period, then it's safe to assume that the Jan 8th peak in cases is likely down to the Christmas period.

I'll look at other countries to see if there's a similar peak.

 

[BlueToff]

So Germany, comparable in the sense that they've had probably one of the worst second waves in the world (alongside the UK), suggests a similar peak, but they are slightly ahead of the UK.

They had several spikes in cases across the Xmas period. One on December 31 with 32,000 cases. At a guess, the majority of the deaths as a consequence of that spike will be from the 8th and the 14th (those are the two spikes you see at the bottom-right of the death count).

They had another spike in cases on January 8th (31,000), so there may well be another spike in deaths in the coming days for Germany, too, which is obviously a worry.

However, on the positive side, they are showing a good drop off in confirmed cases, and if that sustains, then deaths will follow.

 

[Moomin]

Yes, we do, thanks Rafael.

It's crap. This time last week, another country had the worst rate. That may change next week or it might stay the same. Either way, it's dreadful.

Again, loads of factors in play. I don't see what it takes away from the importance of the vaccine though?

We had a major advantage over the majority of Europe in that we are an Island and yet we have the worst rate in Europe and the world.

 

[NilSatisOptimum]

Actually convinced Harding has done the worst job imaginable. This country is a disgrace.

£30 for a kids food is sickening to some people but carry on with these consultants at £1000 per day.

Privatisation under the guise outsourcing... However, don't actually blame consultants going locum per se , the politics at than level is insane.

The service I work in has two post for psychiatrist, out of 8 years ive been in post, one post has had a NHS contracted psychiatrist for the last 4 years who is also now leaving. Countless locums, its a circuit...

Also the consultant at the Walton centre a family member had been seeing up-to this time last year for many years, summed up why he was leaving the NHS, had managers with nvqs telling him how to clinically manage his clinic...

 

[BlueToff]

We had a major advantage over the majority of Europe in that we are an Island and yet we have the worst rate in Europe and the world.

I agree, it's a farce.

I have looked at the WHO site and our mortality rate on confirmed cases is at 2.65% (to the closest decimal point).

Germany is 2.3%
France is 2.45%
Spain is 2.4%

However, Italy's mortality rate is up at 3.4%

These are based on the official WHO figures, you can check them yourself.

How do we have the worst rate? Or is that just, as of right now in this second wave, we have the worst rate?

And, what are the reasons for that? Is it better healthcare in those nations like Germany? I think that's obviously going to play a part - so again, government funding, or how that money is distributed.

Speed of care. Also, where those deaths have occurred (care homes, hospitals?), the age of the people dying, the health of them (whether they were young and fit, had underlying conditions (serious or were they simply overweight), or down to age). Why does this impact some people so badly and not others?

There's loads of factors, that's all my point was.

 

[BlueToff]

Weirdly (and thankfully because it would mean even more deaths), the USA's mortality rate is around 1.65%

Canada's is up at about 2.6%

 

[grandjoeblue]

Weirdly (and thankfully because it would mean even more deaths), the USA's mortality rate is around 1.65%

Canada's is up at about 2.6%

USA testing has been much more steady. I'd imagine below 2% are dying here now that testing is so high. Italy probably tests a lot less.

Confirmed cases don't really mean a whole lot when millions of cases have been missed in every country.

 

[BlueToff]

USA testing has been much more steady. I'd imagine below 2% are dying here now that testing is so high. Italy probably tests a lot less.

Confirmed cases don't really mean a whole lot when millions of cases have been missed in every country.

Well ultimately though confirmed cases is what the 'worst mortality rate in the world' headlines are going off?

We can only guess at the actual numbers, so we just have to use the ones which are confirmed.

I'm not denying those latest reports, just that based on the official WHO figures (so the official figures from each country) those are the mortality rates as it stands.

I think the UK one this week was per 100,000, but I'm still not sure if that's a rolling figure or what.

 

[davek]

So Germany, comparable in the sense that they've had probably one of the worst second waves in the world (alongside the UK), suggests a similar peak, but they are slightly ahead of the UK.

They had several spikes in cases across the Xmas period. One on December 31 with 32,000 cases. At a guess, the majority of the deaths as a consequence of that spike will be from the 8th and the 14th (those are the two spikes you see at the bottom-right of the death count).

They had another spike in cases on January 8th (31,000), so there may well be another spike in deaths in the coming days for Germany, too, which is obviously a worry.

However, on the positive side, they are showing a good drop off in confirmed cases, and if that sustains, then deaths will follow.

View attachment 114639

Comparable second wave? The two graphs you presented show nothing like a comparative pattern or volume.

The German second wave was a series of peaks and troughs and never got much over 30,000 per day at any point; the UK second wave has been a constantly climbing peak which saw between 45,000-65,000 cases per day.

 

[adi dassler]

A lot of news outlets starting to come out stating that schools are likely to be closed until April. I think we all knew this would happen due to the crazy policies in December.

One point that winds me up is when they pretend that the lockdown is going to be short when everyone knows it takes months to make a decent dent into the spread.

I'm still hoping that things will reopen mid April / May but time will tell.

We've just had confirmation today that a west end show my missus had booked us tickets for has been cancelled. That's in late May.