See
It's in the order of 3 or 4000 less deaths than usual over that timescale isn't it ?
So, it's likely fair to say that less than 10% of the COVID related deaths seen earlier this year would have probably died within six months.
On the other side of the argument, roughly 90% of those who died earlier this year would likely still be alive if they hadn't been infected.
90's a much bigger number than 10. Also, without the original lockdown, even those who are vehemently anti-lockdown would likely agree that the 40 to 50k COVID deaths would have been closer to 100k, so it would have been a much higher excess death rate.
I think it's less the idea of died anyway and more cause of death. The official lines are pretty clear in blurring the line between what is died of and died with.
I don't think that 90% stat is that true, I would love to read about that a little bit more if you have a link to it. I guess the morality in that would be that not dying within this time period is not necessarily a marker of would have died at some point, in a rather specific way. Take my nan for example, what she died of took months to take its toll on her and almost to the extent for a long time we just didn't notice anything. When she did go into hospital then it was clear she wasn't coming back out again. Using covid in that example , it would have killed her in the current period but it wouldn't have struck down a healthy person either.
There is a lot of information like this we don't and will never have access to to make a sweeping statement. At the same time we don't know how many in similar circumstances were not 'dying' in that sense but also not on borrowed time either. If that makes any sense? It takes me back to the Eddie large example, he was nowhere near a well man by the time he died but officially covid was cause of death. Someone with multiple heart failures over a 20 year period is not comparable to say my friends parents who are in good health at a similar age.
Going back to the point I made after that sidetrack. There are a lot of figures that have dropped on that time , much the same way I expect given the large cause of underlying issues, dementia will see a significant drop this year compared to previous years on average, same as next year's figures might reflect that. It's a long term idea that is simply still in the short term. You can't say for a fact this or that , simply reflect the data.
So there may be a picture 18 months from now that reflects a different story to all of this. Because the easy answer is to sit life and death as black or white but quality of life , playing off the average age of death is another factor that we really don't know. It doesn't apply to every case and it may not apply to that many cases either. We just don't know that and never will.
Because that's the issue with numbers, they are just that. I admit I base my opinion now on them but they don't tell the full story, only we can.
