zzr45
#MURDERINGSCUM
From the BBC.
The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.
Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!
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The modelling by Imperial College London has been heavily informed by the experience in Italy and is influencing decisions at the heart of government.
From the Imperial report. There's no real great solution to this.
It will be better if you take a look at seriously infected countries. I hate to use China as example but there you go. Korea is another example getting the numbers down to a sustainable infection rate. If the results continue to improve, more and more restrictions will be lifted, and at this rate it will be a few months. rather than 18months as you’ve suggested. Nobody knows if it works but at least with measures, less people will die and hospital will cope. It’s really a choice between short term extended measures or Long term suffering with mild measures. I don’t believe herd immunity is the way out. They might as well inject everyone with the virus and it could all finish within a month if that’s the case.
The guidelines in that link are not in accordance with the UK governments initial herd immunity policy. I was asking for the data or computer models for that. The government themselves now say that they have realized their initial conclusions were flawed and have switched track.
That's the thing though, from the Imperial paper
"Cities in which these interventions were implemented early in the epidemic were successful at reducing case numbers while the interventions remained in place and experienced lower mortality overall. However, transmission rebounded once controls were lifted."
JLW
Player Valuation: £70m
Maybe not but they are ok taking the money each month! IMO They should be able to cover every person/business they insure at any time.
zzr45
#MURDERINGSCUM
Mitigation. Here the aim is to use NPIs (and vaccines or drugs, if available) not to interrupt transmission completely, but to reduce the health impact of an epidemic, akin to the strategy adopted by some US cities in 1918, and by the world more generally in the 1957, 1968 and 2009 influenza pandemics. In the 2009 pandemic, for instance, early supplies of vaccine were targeted at individualswith pre-existing medical conditions which put them at risk of more severe disease . In this scenario,
population immunity builds up through the epidemic, leading to an eventual rapid decline in case numbers and transmission dropping to low levels....
The aim of mitigation is to reduce the impact of an epidemic by flattening the curve, reducing peak incidence and overall deaths (Figure 2). Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale of disruption imposed and the likely period over which the interventions can be maintained. In this scenario, interventions can limit transmission to the extent that little herd immunity is acquired – leading to the possibility that a second wave of infection is seen once interventions are lifted.
I mean that’s pretty clear to me. It also ties in with what was said last week in that measures would come in when they need to..
This is obviously the worry, but think that any additional time we can buy will be helpful, in terms of health, as it will get a vaccine further down the road, new anti-viral meds can be trialled, get a better prepared infrastructure around the hospitals etc.
Think we’re stuck choosing between taking a kick in either the left or right ball.
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
For a total lockdown yes, but the state could do things to help and it would probably cost less than doing nothing or a bailout a la 2008-9 would. Tell business there will be no tax at all and their rent / mortgage will be covered for Q2 this year, and all citizens that their mortgage / rent will be likewise covered (as a holiday rather than a freebie for mortgages though, and they’d still pay tax). Then loan the money to the banks to let them cover the mortgages. Anyone who can’t work because of the crisis gets SSP, which should be enough to live on once housing and transportation costs are removed from their spending for 3 months.
It would probably cost between £50- £100 billion up front, but you’d get most of it back as the banks returned the cash and the only businesses that should go under would be really short term, hand-to-mouth outfits that would probably have been going under whatever happened. Everyone else should be able to get by, though there might need to be some cases where further help would be needed.
A couple of things also stand out from the paper.
1) The 250,000 deaths figure that is being widely reported is even if suppression is adopted for several months
2) It's not immediately clear that the authors have explored the implications of such a prolonged period of suppression on poverty and so on. They appear to be purely looking at the pandemic in isolation
3) As such, I do wonder just how feasible such a strategy is, given that they recommend it for 6 months or so. I mean deaths and other negative consequences of poverty are evident, and this would be an economic crash like we've never seen before
Say what you like about the government, but I don't envy them this job whatsoever.
Bluerover
Player Valuation: £60m
Bruce
I like your posts and I respect your views.
However, step back a little and look at the big picture here. Hundreds of thousands of people are finding themselves without income from their normal employment through no fault of their own. Added to this many hundreds of thousands face premature death or permanent injury to their respiratory systems because of a virus that was not of their own making.
For those of us in Ireland, the collective memory of the Famine remains in our DNA. Regrettably, the capitalist utilitarian attitude of the London Government of the time was that little or no help should be given to the millions who were starving, while maintaining trade at all costs to maximise profits. This trade included cereals that were grown in Ireland being exported for profits.
I really cannot agree that world Governments should repeat this heartless approach, and allow people to enter poverty in order to keep Government finances in a healthy state. This is an unprecedented world catastrophe (well Spanish flu post WWI was similar - but I hope we have learne dfrom that).
There is enough finance in world Governments and financial institutions to cushion those who need it most, without destroying the world.
Allowing people to enter destitution through no fault of their own is not an acceptable policy.
Sentinel
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Ideas are being floated that people might be given $1000 a month stipend. Whether this idea is feasible or not. I don't know. Nobody does.
What we do know is every effort will be made if you contact the virus, all efforts will be made to ensure that aid is there for you. Whatever the governments policy on this is a mute point.
It's time to pull together, don't take any unnecessary risks. We're fortunate to live in a society where we have access to the best healthcare is history.
Billy Dean
Player Valuation: £70m
Talk over here is that indeed a rebound is likely after relaxation of restrictions at least there will be systems and procedures in place that can be applied to slow things down again.
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