Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Bruce Wayne]

I hope you're right, I fear this might be The Esk levels of premature.

I do wonder whether we won't need to see case numbers considerably higher before we get death rates even close to their spring figures. A combination of quite significant under-reporting of cases in spring and better treatment of the most serious cases leads me to think if we're comparing now to then we're not really comparing like with like. After all, many European countries have seen record case numbers for about six weeks now and still deaths remain relatively rare. The previous orthodoxy seemed to suggest a lag of about a fortnight between cases spiking and deaths rising, but I wonder if that was true only when the reported cases were of the more serious cases to begin with, which may not be where we're at right now (where perhaps more reported cases are mild).

 

[Jebus_lives]

I do wonder whether we won't need to see case numbers considerably higher before we get death rates even close to their spring figures. A combination of quite significant under-reporting of cases in spring and better treatment of the most serious cases leads me to think if we're comparing now to then we're not really comparing like with like. After all, many European countries have seen record case numbers for about six weeks now and still deaths remain relatively rare. The previous orthodoxy seemed to suggest a lag of about a fortnight between cases spiking and deaths rising, but I wonder if that was true only when the reported cases were of the more serious cases to begin with, which may not be where we're at right now (where perhaps more reported cases are mild).

Testing is clearly skewing the data but the delay in hospital admissions is usually longer it seems. More towards a 5 week cycle from infection to death and realistically there has been a much more rapid increase in the UK across the last week. I'd suggest, if there is an increase, we might start seeing more in the next few weeks.

The difficulty will be, inevitably, if we see no correlation between rise in cases and hospital admissions/deaths, there will be calls to relax restrictions entirely. Which is not really helpful, because those that have greater susceptibility to Covid (60+, comorbities, greater exposure) will still suffer. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4

There are also health impacts, aside from death, that make Covid quite nasty even in younger people. It's not really true to say that 'young people don't get sick'.

I'd challenge the 'let's open everything up' crowd saying 'protect the vulnerable', to outline exactly how they would do that sensibly before actually doing it.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Testing is clearly skewing the data but the delay in hospital admissions is usually longer it seems. More towards a 5 week cycle from infection to death and realistically there has been a much more rapid increase in the UK across the last week. I'd suggest, if there is an increase, we might start seeing more in the next few weeks.

The difficulty will be, inevitably, if we see no correlation between rise in cases and hospital admissions/deaths, there will be calls to relax restrictions entirely. Which is not really helpful, because those that have greater susceptibility to Covid (60+, comorbities, greater exposure) will still suffer. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v4

There are also health impacts, aside from death, that make Covid quite nasty even in younger people. It's not really true to say that 'young people don't get sick'.

I'd challenge the 'let's open everything up' crowd saying 'protect the vulnerable', to outline exactly how they would do that sensibly before actually doing it.

I suppose the only inevitability is that regardless of what approach is taken, some people will suffer, and lots of people will complain.

 

[TommyDavo]

My Brother and his g/f tested positive on the anti-body, 2 people in my missus work and 1 of my mates, all young people, so all recovered.

None of the dead I was personally attached to and only 2 of them were local.

That ignores my mate who had 3 of his family members die in Belgium from it and the countless people who have had it and died in my daughters home, all elderly.

My lads g/f tested positive for the anti-bodies (diabetic, didn’t even know she’d had it). My lad tested negative, I think it’s time we had the conversation....

 

[roydo]

My lads g/f tested positive for the anti-bodies (diabetic, didn’t even know she’d had it). My lad tested negative, I think it’s time we had the conversation....

Why did she/he get tested?

 

[TommyDavo]

Why did she/he get tested?

Her mum got it and ended up on a ventilator, I think he got tested because he works in the NHS (data cruncher for the Covid numbers at the minute) or maybe because of the g/f, not sure.

 

[Jebus_lives]

I suppose the only inevitability is that regardless of what approach is taken, some people will suffer, and lots of people will complain.

I said some time ago in this thread that there are 'best worst options' regarding a number of decisions.

The most appropriate action, to my mind, is to accept the risk but look to mitigate as much as possible. Those trying to completely reduce one risk or complete accept another, inevitably disregard or create an entirely new one. Sensible conversation seems to have deteriorated to there being only Option A (open everything up, disregard the sick and elderly and let the economy recover) or B (lock everything down, anything else is literal murder). The sensible will suggest an alternative which reduces risk while putting the strongest possible mitigation in place.

Proportionality the key. Good infection control measures across the population, an actual functioning track and trace system coupled with testing, while trying to keep businesses functioning seems to me to be the 'best worst scenario' (and is also literally the national pandemic strategy).

 

[roydo]

Her mum got it and ended up on a ventilator, I think he got tested because he works in the NHS (data cruncher for the Covid numbers at the minute) or maybe because of the g/f, not sure.

Very much hope all are fine now.

 

[TommyDavo]

Why did she/he get tested?

Tif, while I was joking, I think they kept the social distancing etc as it was early days in relationship and obvs the underlying condition. Suppose it’s a bit of evidence that it can have some effect. All sound

 

[gonetomorrow]

they have had 230 deaths since July 10th. It's over for them.

Well, let's hope you're right, Benny Svensson.

 

[roydo]

So, the spike in Bolton has been traced to a bloke who arrived back from abroad, and instead of self isolating, went on an epic pub crawl with a load of mates.

Nice one genius.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

So, the spike in Bolton has been traced to a bloke who arrived back from abroad, and instead of self isolating, went on an epic pub crawl with a load of mates.

Nice one genius.

Just can't figure some people out.

 

[Goat]

So, the spike in Bolton has been traced to a bloke who arrived back from abroad, and instead of self isolating, went on an epic pub crawl with a load of mates.

Nice one genius.

He honestly needs shooting.

Forget a trial, just put him against a wall and shoot him.

 

[orchard]

Just can't figure some people out.

It's why we have a 'government' or somesuch, isn't it? Just like you expected to be contacted occasionally, so should they have been imo.

 

[YoboCopter]

So, the spike in Bolton has been traced to a bloke who arrived back from abroad, and instead of self isolating, went on an epic pub crawl with a load of mates.

Nice one genius.

He wont be the only one