Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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There is a degree of arbitrariness about matters though. I've said for a while now that Czech has had a high number of cases for quite a few weeks, yet they're going on the 'must quarantine' list from Saturday. They've had fairly steady case numbers for a month now, so why have they tipped over from Saturday and not before?
 
You missed the point.

They're continuing to put Jenny Harries front and centre with her assertive recommendations;



... When her credibility has been repeatedly undermined by government policy on key issues. You're then inevitably going to get;



I mean, I try and be pretty open minded. I've been very sympathetic to the challenge the government have had at every turn - damned if they do, damned if they don't - the "whatabout" and nitpicking has been ridiculous at times, pandemics aren't consistent and convenient but just two examples with Jenny Harries;

1. 2m35s - large crowds aren't as bad as small crowds. A few months later, pubs etc are all back then before arenas/football stadiums.



2. Face masks are terrible/make it worse;

Jenny Harries, deputy chief medical officer, said the masks could “actually trap the virus” and cause the person wearing it to breathe it in.
“For the average member of the public walking down a street, it is not a good idea” to wear a face mask in the hope of preventing infection, she added.
Dr Harries told BBC News: “What tends to happen is people will have one mask. They won’t wear it all the time, they will take it off when they get home, they will put it down on a surface they haven’t cleaned.
“Or they will be out and they haven’t washed their hands, they will have a cup of coffee somewhere, they half hook it off, they wipe something over it.
“In fact, you can actually trap the virus in the mask and start breathing it in.
Asked if people are putting themselves more at risk by wearing masks, Dr Harries added: “Because of these behavioural issues, people can adversely put themselves at more risk than less.”


Then a few months later, masks are now great. There's nothing unique about coronavirus and a mask when it comes to the point she is making about contamination.

Whatever she tells me now I just shrug and treat it similarly to a football ITK on transfers.

Sure, all for learning as you go and there's not much worse in modern society than people who scream u turn etc as though changing opinion is toxic but for me, Western/WHO 'understanding' of pandemics for both large crowds and masks seems well off for me. They spend billions each year to prepare and model coronaviruses- it isn't revolutionary - and they either didn't have a clue, or had a narrative to maintain.

Logic to me also suggests they were right with masks initially on them being counter productive to the general population, but I feel they were always going to recommend masks post lockdown as a visual stimuli.

On dealing with a pandemic and basics of large crowds/masks = China 1-0 West/WHO 0.


This might also be of interest, especially as the likes of France are a bit further along than us. The guy makes particular reference to indoor locations.


I thought this was also interesting given how so many of the cases at the moment are among young people.

"
It would be dangerous to let the virus circulate in certain groups, such as young people, in the hope of achieving herd immunity more quickly. Populations are not separated from one another: if the epidemic spreads in one group, others will be gradually affected, whether we like it or not.

This can be seen in what happened in Florida. For two to three weeks we saw the diagnosed cases increase, but mainly among young people. Hospitalisations and intensive care patients did not initially increase – these indicators do not start to move until three to six weeks later. If France also waits to take action, it will be too late, and we risk losing control of the epidemic."
 
Hospital figures - 10 is the announced total, the same total as yesterday and 4 down on last Thursday. 7 were in English hospitals, 2 down on yesterday but 2 up on last week. The 7 day rolling average rises slightly to 7.71

All settings - For the 28 day cut off, the announced total is 12, four down on yesterday but 6 up on last Thursday meaning the 7 day rolling average rises to 10.57. There is no data at present for the 60 day cut off and Legacy
 
There is a degree of arbitrariness about matters though. I've said for a while now that Czech has had a high number of cases for quite a few weeks, yet they're going on the 'must quarantine' list from Saturday. They've had fairly steady case numbers for a month now, so why have they tipped over from Saturday and not before?

It's not totally arbitrary though. They're using a threshold of 20 cases per 100k people ( a seven day average I think ) as the primary measure, but I'm reasonably sure they'll then take into account :-

  • Ratio of positive tests to overall tests. Low is good and gets you more wriggle room
  • How many people visit the country, both annually, and seasonally. Low is good, after all if only 10k people visit the country in 12 months, it's effect will be next to nothing
  • What the rate is in the UK. As our rate goes up, then restricting movements will have less effect
  • Politics - which is partly why Gibraltar isn't on the quarantine list.
So the Czech's got away with having a highish infection rate for a few weeks, but their 7 day moving average has been increasing for three or four weeks and they've now hit a tipping point.

Screenshot_20200827-204942.webp
 
Shapps is a shattering fool. I'm feeling less secure for having seen his interview with BBC this morning.
He's making things up as he goes along.
 
To be fair, at the time that masks weren't being recommended, the entire country was in some form of lockdown, and our exposure to other people was, as a result, hugely limited. That was probably another factor, and as society is opening up more now, other steps are being taken. It'll be the same when schools re-open, as you can almost guarantee that if case numbers begin to rise again, a less important part of society (such as the pubs) will be asked to shut again.

The various behavioural aspects of mask wearing all still very much apply, and you see people wearing them wrongly all the time, and of course people will also fiddle with them or not wash their hands properly or various other things with minimise their effectiveness. That's going to be inevitable because people are people. You'd imagine that the guidelines are resting on the fact that most people will follow them properly rather than the few dolts that don't.

With regards to crowds, I suspect given your line of work and the clients you have in the event space that you have been following matters a lot more closely than I have. I'm not entirely convinced that the areas of society that have been opened haven't been made out of political and economic considerations rather than the health risk, but obviously it's hard to have evidence to back up what is largely a hunch.

I think governments have to balance economic, political and health aspects which is why they do things that seemingly don't make sense to people.
 
It doesn't affect me like but these travel shut downs are getting ridiculous now.

We get so many cases yet a small increase in a country and we aren't allowing travel there?

I get it if it was a sudden 1000 cases somewhere or a consistently high number but 60? 60 cases out of the blue and a whole country is suddenly dangerous to travel to?

Completely ridiculous, all it's doing is screwing over people both business and holiday goers.
 
It doesn't affect me like but these travel shut downs are getting ridiculous now.

We get so many cases yet a small increase in a country and we aren't allowing travel there?

I get it if it was a sudden 1000 cases somewhere or a consistently high number but 60? 60 cases out of the blue and a whole country is suddenly dangerous to travel to?

Completely ridiculous, all it's doing is screwing over people both business and holiday goers.

Holiday goers: a choice
Businesses: how does this affect UK businesses?
 
I think governments have to balance economic, political and health aspects which is why they do things that seemingly don't make sense to people.

For sure, and I would never argue that their job is not an incredibly difficult one. Equally, with things like masks, it's such a low effort thing that if people want to wear one wherever they are, it's hardly an imposition to go beyond the government guidelines. A lot of Asian folk around our area have been wearing masks for a very long time. If this pandemic does anything, it will perhaps remove the stigma attached to such things, much as there is none in Asian countries.
 
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