Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Jebus_lives]

Yeah "surveillance" is certainly a strange word to use, but I suspect it's just a case of the writer couldn't think of a better word/phrase to use at the time.

The 1205 figure yesterday was from those that had tested positive. We know the actual figure will be a lot higher because not everybody with symptoms will have tests and some will be asymptomatic. 5 times higher seems reasonable and in line with ONS produced figures. maybe they are quoting the ONS figures.

Surveillance is used because it's about the ongoing collection of data and information. As in you closely observe something. It's widely used in Pandemic terminology.

It's not new terminology really.

 

[BlueStevie35]

138 deaths announced by the NHS today, down 14 on last Tuesday but up 76 on yesterday due to the usual weekend data lag. Of those deaths 129 were in English hospitals, up 70 on yesterday and down 14 on last week, with 109 coming in the past 10 days

 

[Blueclouds]

138 deaths announced by the NHS today, down 14 on last Tuesday but up 76 on yesterday due to the usual weekend data lag. Of those deaths 129 were in English hospitals, up 70 on yesterday and down 14 on last week, with 109 coming in the past 10 days

Just wont go away

 

[Catfish Blues]

Could be, in fact I hope so. The quote, which was on the BBC, stated:

"Monday's data shows there were 1,205 new infections diagnosed, but surveillance suggests the true figure may be five times higher."

Alas, surveillance in its purest form refers to close observation so perhaps could refer to it being scrutinised, however the normal connotation is much darker.

We know that China and Israel to name a few have used such measures to monitor the progress of the virus, therefore it does raise questions about its reference.

The surveillance they're talking about here isn't the covert type, it's what comes out of the ONS swab survey ( details at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...onaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020 )

From the survey, they get an estimate of how many people would give a positive test over the course of a week or two, and then they compare that to the number of people who tested positive in the normal way.

Divide the first number by the second and you get a rough factor which presumably, though I han't checked the maths, would give an answer of about five

 

[PhilM]

The surveillance they're talking about here isn't the covert type, it's what comes out of the ONS swab survey ( details at https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...onaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/5june2020 )

From the survey, they get an estimate of how many people would give a positive test over the course of a week or two, and then they compare that to the number of people who tested positive in the normal way.

Divide the first number by the second and you get a rough factor which presumably, though I han't checked the maths, would give an answer of about five

A poor choice of word on their behalf then like I had hoped.

 

[Catfish Blues]

A poor choice of word on their behalf then like I had hoped.

It's a survey mate, as far as scientists are concerned, surveillance is what happens in a survey

Anyway, actually the maths is quite easy

Estimate of new cases per day from the survey ~ 5500
Actual positive cases per day for the same period* : Between 1000 and 1500 ?

So, roughly a factor of 4, which, given I couldn't be arsed working out the average of positive cases for the last two weeks of May, is close enough for me


*from https://assets.publishing.service.g...020-06-08_COVID-19_UK_testing_time_series.csv

 

[BlueStevie35]

Just wont go away

Data lag always means it’s high on a Tuesday, if they went of day to day then the numbers have actually been sitting pretty low for about 2-3 weeks now

 

[Blueclouds]

Data lag always means it’s high on a Tuesday, if they went of day to day then the numbers have actually been sitting pretty low for about 2-3 weeks now

Thanks. It's so depressing. I'm starting to lose it.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Barnfred 55]

Surveillance is used because it's about the ongoing collection of data and information. As in you closely observe something. It's widely used in Pandemic terminology.

It's not new terminology really.

Fair do's. I've not seen it used before but it's good to know I'm right for a change

 

[COYBL25]

Just been reading an article in the Telegraph, which I think has come from one of the Hong Kong Papers, stating that internet searches in China for respiratory related problems went through the roof from mid October onwards

 

[evilwebby]

i like to think of the good buddies in here holding all to account and avoiding it becoming an echo chamber my friend. what do u think about 5g anyway??

God's gift to telecommunications. Put a chip in the back of everyone's neck, I say.

 

[evilwebby]

Yeah "surveillance" is certainly a strange word to use, but I suspect it's just a case of the writer couldn't think of a better word/phrase to use at the time.

The 1205 figure yesterday was from those that had tested positive. We know the actual figure will be a lot higher because not everybody with symptoms will have tests and some will be asymptomatic. 5 times higher seems reasonable and in line with ONS produced figures. maybe they are quoting the ONS figures.

If we're performing 100-200k tests per day and only 1% of those are coming back positive.. the virus is burning itself out

 

[evilwebby]

That's pretty much the current national consideration. Economy messaging has jumped in front of public health communications now.

It's been a few weeks now since the earliest countries lifted their lockdowns, and we haven't had a huge 2nd spike in cases as some thought we might. It has obviously been a painful few months for people whose livelihoods have been severely impacted, but I do have high hopes that the recovery will be much more V-shaped than the pessimists thought.

 

[COYBL25]

@ForeverBlue92
@YoboCopter
@peteblue

Just had an email from a pub I stay at in the Lakes, saying that they’re open for business from 4th July and asking if I want rooms ( I’d recently made an enquiry )

I’d say it’s back on lads