Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[peteblue]

I saw the budget and in general I think it was a sensible budget. Clearly Cummings faction is winning out against the neoliberal faction of the Tories and there will be a substantial move to borrow and spend. It's a form of Keynesianism, and given how low interest rates are, it's hard to say it's not a sensible approach even pragmatically.

I think it has proven what John Mcdonnell has said to be correct really. People mocked Corbyn when he said he won the argument, but that budget confirms it really. Pre 2017 the Conservatives fought on a platform that there was "no magic money tree" and came out the other side by borrowing more money than any administration has in decades (including New Labour).

I always remember Margaret Thatcher saying her biggest achievement was New Labour. You can obviously read that in the ay that Blair et al were essentially Thatcherites (which is quite a fair reading in my view). But more than that, that it's a positive if you force your opponents to adopt your clothes to win. In the longer term this is a very positive move. 97 was a high water point for Labour and they have been on the down slope ever since.

The point I'd make though, is that the measures announced in the budget hardly touch the sides of whats required for Corona Virus. I mean the measures will be a sticking plaster against very serious issues that have emerged after 10 years of a floored aspiration of chasing closing the budget deficit. The debt is now substantially higher than ever, and we've achieved nothing in doing so, is metaphorically drinking from the unending cup. The level of investment required for this crisis goes qualitatively beyond the relatively moderate measures put in place in the budget.

That is what is going to terrify the Conservatives at this point. They've managed the spectacle very badly, and re-enforced a perception of Johnson as a bit of a joker who's not really up to the job. I don't think they have the strength to replicate the sort of measures say Roosevelt managed in the 30's in America. Getting that past the neb-liberals in the coalition will prove much too difficult.

I think there will be deep divides within the organisation. From brief conversations I've had with some Conservatives, I have been surprised at the complacency they have shown. Their are choppy waters ahead. In truth I have really underestimated just how choppy those waters are, and how ineffective they look to be at crossing them.

I think, and please I mean no offence, that you are suffering from a slight bit of wishful thinking....

 

[catcherintherye]

I think, and please I mean no offence, that you are suffering from a slight bit of wishful thinking....

No offence taken.

I try to call it as a see it. When Johnson negotiated the deal with the EU, I was very very nervous (as I think I said to you). I still don't think the majority of those on the left really grasp how pivotal that was (even if it just meant he maintained enough support from Tory remainers) to win the election.

You say they have said money will be provided. Will money be provided to ensure people can insulate for say 2 weeks at a time on a salary that is commensurate to allowing them to pay bills (say European levels)?

America have just magicked up $500bn for the stock exchange to provide some stability. There may well be more needed. We have about 1/6th the size of America, but have we got circa £70bn floating around to calm the markets? Have we got support mechanisms for small businesses?

All I see at the moment are abstract statements about herd mentality. I'll be frank they seem like they are massively in too deep.

Did you see Farage's statement?

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Nymzee]

Well it's absolutely smashed the SARS outbreak out of the water hasn't it.

 

[davids]

You got a funny cartoon for kids on chemotherapy or with heart disease ?

 

[davids]

Well it's absolutely smashed the SARS outbreak out of the water hasn't it.

And yet no lessons were learned,it's like it never happened

 

[Brisan123]

The European Union will launch a €37 billion investment initiative as part of a package of measures to cushion the bloc's economies from the impact of coronavirus, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

Other steps the EU's executive will take include giving member states flexibility on budget deficits and state aid, von der Leyen told a news conference.

The move is meant to grant full spending flexibility to Italy, the European country so far most affected by the crisis.

The EU will also use €1 billion of EU money to guarantee up to €8 billion in loans to 100,000 virus-hit firms in tourism, retail, transport and other ailing sectors, von der Leyen said.

"I am convinced that the European Union can withstand this shock," she said.

"But each member state needs to live up to its full responsibility and the European Union as a whole needs to be determined, coordinated and united," she added.

Earlier this week she announced a €25 billion investment plan based exclusively on existing EU funds already committed to EU states.

Meanwhile, the European Commission is ready to activate a clause in EU fiscal rules that would allow a suspension of budget commitments by countries most affected by the coronavirus crisis, the EU executive's vice president said today.

"We stand ready to activate the general escape clause to accommodate a more general fiscal policy support," Valdis Dombrovskis told a news conference.

"This clause would suspend the fiscal adjustment recommended" and can be triggered in case of a severe downturn, Dombrovskis said.

Speaking about Italy in particular, von der Leyen told reporters: “We are absolutely ready to help Italy with whatever is necessary. This is of the utmost importance. This country is severely hit by coronavirus.”

“So whatever is necessary, we support. Whatever they will need, we will answer.”

Von der Leyen also boosted the amount of existing EU budget money to be devoted to the crisis to €37 billion.

The spending in question will come from EU subsidies left unspent and rules will be loosened to keep funds flowing.

All eyes are on a meeting on Monday of EU finance ministers who between them have more power to build a response sizeable enough to be felt on the markets.

i assume Brexit means Brexit in this instance.

 

[Aqui1a]

Interesting. I wonder what this 'computer simulation' is, exactly. I hope it's not Matt Hancock watching one of my Plague Inc. streams. If Boris starts suggesting people flee to Madagascar to escape the pandemic, start worrying!

 

[The binman chronicles]

And yet no lessons were learned,it's like it never happened

Part of the problem though, as SARS didn't spread to other parts it probably gave people confidence that things like this would be contained.

 

[LinekersLegs]

No ones house is on fire though. Meanwhile washing hands actually helps to delay the spread of the virus. Everyone could sit in their own homes for 3 months, the economy collapses, then afterwards a visitor from China, Spain, Argentina or wherever arrives with the same bug and everyone catches it again, or we all go back home for 3 months.....

But doesn’t that acquired herd immunity assume that the virus stays the same, ie no mutations, and also assume that you are immune after contracting it?

From what I recall the SARS and MERS didn’t mutate much and you were immune and this virus is of the same family. However we have very limited data on it since it is so new so those seem rather large leaps to be making at this time.

 

[kenada_blue]

Part of the problem though, as SARS didn't spread to other parts it probably gave people confidence that things like this would be contained.

SARs and MERs weren't easy to transmit as COVID19 is.

However COVID19 is the least threatening of the 3 Coronavirus strains.

 

[peteblue]

No offence taken.

I try to call it as a see it. When Johnson negotiated the deal with the EU, I was very very nervous (as I think I said to you). I still don't think the majority of those on the left really grasp how pivotal that was (even if it just meant he maintained enough support from Tory remainers) to win the election.

You say they have said money will be provided. Will money be provided to ensure people can insulate for say 2 weeks at a time on a salary that is commensurate to allowing them to pay bills (say European levels)?

America have just magicked up $500bn for the stock exchange to provide some stability. There may well be more needed. We have about 1/6th the size of America, but have we got circa £70bn floating around to calm the markets? Have we got support mechanisms for small businesses?

All I see at the moment are abstract statements about herd mentality. I'll be frank they seem like they are massively in too deep.

Did you see Farage's statement?

I tend not to read or listen to Farage tbh. They have actually put forward a raft of measures for small businesses including a £3000 grant for the smallest. I think most businesses feel we will ride this out....

 

[Catfish Blues]

Interesting. I wonder what this 'computer simulation' is, exactly

To be fair to the scientists, whether or not their model is correct, they've really gone out on a limb on this. It would have been much easier just to follow the rest of Europe and implement social distancing now, no-one would have batted any eyelid if they'd done that.

We'll not know if they were right or wrong for some time, not only will we have to wait until cases have dropped off here, we're also have to wait to see if other countries ( or the UK ), get a second peak before anti-virals and vaccines are available.

If it was just about the economy, and the scientists didn't actually believe their model, but were being pushed by the government to say otherwise, then the economic impact would just be pushed down the line by a few months, so I'd say the scientists believe what they're telling us. They're either men with balls of steel, or they're idiots. I prefer the first option.

 

[catcherintherye]

I tend not to read or listen to Farage tbh. They have actually put forward a raft of measures for small businesses including a £3000 grant for the smallest. I think most businesses feel we will ride this out....

Thats not the impression I get from conversations. If this starts to escalate there will be enormous damage. We need some strong interventionist action to prevent this. I'm seeing very little.

 

[longers]

I've flu like symptoms the past couple days, so called 111 and was told to just quarantine myself.

Mental, this.

They tell that to everyone. The only way they take you seriously for Covid-19 is if you meet their specific criteria consisting of two things

1. Have recently travelled to a country with a large amount of coronavirus cases
2. Have been in contact with a person who 'officially' has coronavirus.

If neither of those are relevant you are not getting tested unless you become seriously seriously ill.