Nobel scientist predicts virus will 'burn out' in next two weeks
A Nobel Prize- winning scientist has predicted, through analysing raw data, that Ireland's death rate and infection will "burn itself out" in the next two weeks, enabling an earlier exit from lockdown.
Professor Michael Levitt, of Stanford University, was speaking after he correctly calculated the demise of China's spread, long ahead of most health experts.
In early February, as many scientists warned of exponential growth, Levitt forecast the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in China would taper out at around 80,000, with 3,250 deaths. Three months on, China has a total of 82,885 cases and 4,633 deaths - in a population of 1.4bn.
Now Prof Levitt has calculated that Ireland's infection is burning itself out and will 'taper off' at around 30,000 cases and fewer than 2,400 deaths. Ireland now has 22,385 cases and 1,403 deaths.
He says the death rate is more difficult to predict, due to a number of factors, such as some countries counting coronavirus deaths in those who would normally have died from underlying health conditions.