Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[davek]

What's your contribution?

Modesty forbids me to state it all.

I dont seek praise. Let's just leave it at that.

 

[PhilM]

The wife of one of my friends is a nurse who is involved in the transfer and treatment of elderly people from NHS into care homes in Greater Manchester.

She said ignore the news stories of some nursing homes having five or six people die because that’s happening in every care home.

The figures are nowhere near the truth.

 

[Disgruntledgoat]

Modesty forbids me to state it all.

I dont seek praise. Let's just leave it at that.

How do you know modesty doesnt prevent Bruce from stating?

His wife has probably put more on the line than most.

 

[Cool_Blue]

Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases

And the Bundesliga are planning to restart next weekend? Good luck with that.

 

[OGG]

Can someone explain to me how this all important R rate is calculated?
I saw the dial on the news and the arrow swings about all over the place ( I had a watch like that so I had to take it to Timpsons but that's not important right now).
Going back to my original question I assume it is about the number of deaths and the number of infected but as they don't know how many are infected as they have only tested a handful of people how do they work it out?

They estimate it using proxies for real data because as you say they don’t know with certainty. The proxies they will use will be number of new infections based on tests done, number of hospitalisations etc and make adjustments based on other factors they have.

So it is currently between 0.5 and 0.9 we are told, which is actually a huge range, showing their lack of certainty.

 

[davmaher]

We do.
Dave's a Chinese plant.







Probably a Wisteria.

Or a fake Chinese rubber plant.

 

[Neiler]

It’s every man, woman and child for himself in the UK seems to me.

Found that briefing from Johnson deeply chilling. Essentially get back to work if you have to, don’t look at us to protect your health, if you use a bus or tube, you might die but that’s fine because we told you not to, bad luck.

Whats actually beggers belief is they announced 2bil investment around walkways and cycle lanes the day before they told people to get back to work and use public transport. So people can head of to work tomorrow, if you live 20 miles from your place of work and can’t get there but by any other means but public transport, you actually might die.

I thought this government was just incompetent but they are actually dangerous. I’m really worried for the UK, in fact I’m afraid for its citizens a massive second wave looks almost inevitable. Imagine announcing on a Sunday that people can head to work on Monday, without public transport or protocols in place for both Employers and employees - it’s stupid and dangerous.

This “plan” is nothing but to politically be seen to keep up with the Jones’s of other countries and in doing so is putting its people in harms way as acceptable collateral, it’s contemptible.

He talked about the R0 number, how can the modelling be accurate when you only started testing in the community about a week ago, by post and most of those tests couldn’t have been processed yet. How is that a basis for any conceivable plan.

There is no logic, no plan, no road map - if three or four us on here had put our head together on Weds we could have produced a better coherent plan. The UK is probably the last country in Europe to announce a plan, they at least could have cut and paste and nicked a bit of someone else’s or done a hybrid one.

The big finish was the message, we reserve the right to play snakes and ladders with your lives and by the way if we do well it’s down to us, if we do poorly it’s on you - we’re only the government.

Lads stay home, stay safe, take every possible precaution for yourself and family, because it’s becoming apparently obvious it’s every man for himself in the UK and the government has accepted collateral loss here, don’t be a number.

 

[Goat]

Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases

And the Bundesliga are planning to restart next weekend? Good luck with that.

Im not sure how thats even news, no offence, theres a reason they did a lockdown and it wasnt to kill the virus, we know the virus is still out there, so of course infection rates are sadly going to increase everywhere once lockdown measures are eased.

 

[Neiler]

Listening to LBC right now as I do, know your enemy and all that. They have the former liberal Tory advisor Tom somebody on, to say he is a tad confused,

Apparently you can go jogging with your aunty but not you uncle from Wednesday in England as long as they are not sheilding, that's the example the government gave journalists.

This is satire at its finest.

It’s like Monty Python were elected.

 

[paultheblue]

They estimate it using proxies for real data because as you say they don’t know with certainty. The proxies they will use will be number of new infections based on tests done, number of hospitalisations etc and make adjustments based on other factors they have.

So it is currently between 0.5 and 0.9 we are told, which is actually a huge range, showing their lack of certainty.

So basically they just make it up?

 

[Old Blue 2]

We're still trying to establish what your contribution to this crisis is...apart from keeping off your bike for a few weeks.

May I ask my fellow GOT forumites to gather on their doorsteps this Thursday night at 8pm to clap Bruce's immense courage and strength.

STAY OFF YOUR BIKES - PROTECT THE NHS

I could post a song for him. He does like my songs... lol

 

[coollino]

Keep calm and infect on

 

[Aberblue]

So basically they just make it up?

It's just guesswork, so yes.

 

[Disgruntledgoat]

It’s every man, woman and child for himself in the UK seems to me.

Found that briefing from Johnson deeply chilling. Essentially get back to work if you have to, don’t look at us to protect your health, if you use a bus or tube, you might die but that’s fine because we told you not to, bad luck.

Whars actually bigger belief is they announced 2bil investment around walkways and cycle lanes the day before they told people to get back to work. So people can head of to work tomorrow, if you live 20 miles from place of work and get there elsewise by public transport, you actually might die.

I thought this government was just incompetent but they are actually dangerous. I’m really worried for the UK, in fact I’m afraid for its citizens a massive second wave looks almost inevitable.

This “plan” is nothing but to politically be seen to keep up with the Jones’s of other countries and in doing so is putting its people in harms way as acceptable collateral, it’s contemptible.

He talked about the R0 number, how can the modelling be accurate when you only started testing in the community about a week ago, by post and most of those test couldn’t have been processed. How is that a basis for any conceivable plan.

There is no logic, no plan, no road map - if three or four us on here had put our head together on Weds we could have produced a better coherent plan. The UK is probably the last country in Europe to announce a plan, they at least could have cut and paste and nicked bit of someone else’s and done a hybrid one.

The big finish was the message, we reserve the right to play snakes and ladders with your lives and by the way if we do well it’s down to us, if we do poorly it’s on you - we’re only the government.

Lads stay home, stay safe, take every possible precaution for yourself and family, because it’s becoming apparently obvious it’s every man for himself in the UK and the government has accepted collateral loss here, don’t be a number.

Is right.

 

[Catfish Blues]

However BJ said we move down to the next level when R falls.

Actually, he didn't mate ...

From https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-address-to-the-nation-on-coronavirus-10-may-2020

And that Covid Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases.

And in turn that Covid Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures – the lower the level the fewer the measures.

So, R can stay constant and, theoretically at least, even rise a bit, and we could move to the next level, or ( and it's a bit if a daft example, because it would take ages ) we could end up with a constant R leading to 100 active cases and never drop a level.