Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

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I still find it astonishing the Govt are not releasing a weekly total of deaths in care homes, they are sitting on that info because it's a scandal, we may never get to know the true total, stinks of a Tory cover up.
I agree that it's astonishing that the government are not releasing a running total of weekly CV-19 deaths in care homes. I don't agree that it is a Tory cover up though.

The count of hospital deaths is anybody who died who has tested positive for CV-19. All GPs have been instructed to record on death certificates of care home and community deaths where CV-19 symptoms have been evident prior to death. These figures are produced and reported separately on a weekly basis (Tuesday in England I believe). They are now starting to test in care homes and the community so these figures will become more accurate as the testing is rolled out. But up until now, if anything, suspected CV-19 deaths will have been overestimated not underestimated. And the figures are produced weekly for everybody to see.

What would the government gain from a cover up that could be so easily disproved.? And if they wanted to keep the numbers down, why would they include everything in the official count?

But it still begs the question, why don't they just add the community deaths to the official figure as they're produced weekly, similar to what Wales and Scotland do. To me it's just another facet to the overall poor communication we're getting from the government throughout the whole episode.
 
I acknowledged that the rate is on a downward trend as we are testing more now. And I also acknowledged the same with those requiring hospitalisation.

But the fact remains that there are still over 4000 daily testing positive, 5 weeks after lockdown. Given 2 weeks of incubation and another week to 10 days of symptoms, I would have expected a big reduction in numbers over the last week. The vast majority of people testing positive now we have to assume caught the virus after lockdown. Or have I got the numbers wrong somewhere.?

This level of infection is too high to do effective contact tracing. Let's hope it comes down over the next week otherwise you can forget concessions
How many of these cases are new though? How many just have the virus in the system in an arse end scenario who have been isolating for 2 weeks.

What you suggest means everyone should be isolating for a lot longer than 2 weeks as any trace would reset the lockdown

Even after the lockdown people will still get the virus and die from ir, or with it at least.

You are also forgetting the figures are retrospective , not current. So given tests are 5 days for results and deaths are 2-3 weeks potentially behind , you can't take the current figures as the right information.

Hence the lockdown being extended longer.

The reality of it is that we won't get a point where everything is ok. Until there is a vaccination then people are at risk. Coming out of lockdown isn't the point where the risk has gone, it's when it has reduced.

And yes, if by next week the numbers haven't dropped enough we will extend again. I believe we will start slowly coming out but there is also the chance we will keep it going. The government put the June time frame in originally so plenty of time to extend of they aren't happy.
 
If you're reporting a figure that determines the general mood of the entire population, I reckon it's worth doing it properly don't you?

Or don't do it at all. Either one would be a vast improvement over the impenetrable blob of information we are fed each day

If you allow these figures to determine your general mood i'd say that's a worry to be honest.

If no figures were published they would be slated. Cannot win.

As I said, the reason for the delay isn't just government people who can't be arsed, it's because generally less people within the health service work on weekends. Heaven forbid people on Twitter don't get the most accurate mortality rate for a day... :oops:
 
If you allow these figures to determine your general mood i'd say that's a worry to be honest.

If no figures were published they would be slated. Cannot win.

As I said, the reason for the delay isn't just government people who can't be arsed, it's because generally less people within the health service work on weekends. Heaven forbid people on Twitter don't get the most accurate mortality rate for a day... :oops:

If you don't think that's what is happening for a large portion of the general public you're being very naive

People are being fed these death numbers every day, the headlines scream it, the news opens with it every night - People want a reason to feel optimistic about the world, and the reduction of these numbers helps with that.

What doesn't help is when the numbers jump up to 700 again tomorrow (as they undoubtedly will) and people slump back in their armchairs thinking "Is this thing actually getting any better?"
 
If you don't think that's what is happening for a large portion of the general public you're being very naive

People are being fed these death numbers every day, the headlines scream it, the news opens with it every night - People want a reason to feel optimistic about the world, and the reduction of these numbers helps with that.

What doesn't help is when the numbers jump up to 700 again tomorrow (as they undoubtedly will) and people slump back in their armchairs thinking "Is this thing actually getting any better?"

Well no, it doesn't help. I'm not sure what your alternative is that's better though.

Don't publish the results ? Worse, people will say they're being lied to.
Delay the results ? Worse, you'll just see one big combined number of over a thousand for the weekend period.
 
How many of these cases are new though? How many just have the virus in the system in an arse end scenario who have been isolating for 2 weeks.

What you suggest means everyone should be isolating for a lot longer than 2 weeks as any trace would reset the lockdown

Even after the lockdown people will still get the virus and die from ir, or with it at least.

You are also forgetting the figures are retrospective , not current. So given tests are 5 days for results and deaths are 2-3 weeks potentially behind , you can't take the current figures as the right information.

Hence the lockdown being extended longer.

The reality of it is that we won't get a point where everything is ok. Until there is a vaccination then people are at risk. Coming out of lockdown isn't the point where the risk has gone, it's when it has reduced.

And yes, if by next week the numbers haven't dropped enough we will extend again. I believe we will start slowly coming out but there is also the chance we will keep it going. The government put the June time frame in originally so plenty of time to extend of they aren't happy.
If you are correct on the first point and the virus stays in the bodies system weeks after the symptoms, then it calls into question the effectiveness of testing. Conceivably front line workers could be testing positive, and being instructed to self isolate even though they may be well past the contagious period.

I expect people to still catch the disease after lockdown. Just not at the numbers we are seeing..

Are the tests results retrospective?. I realised deaths were, but hadn't heard that about tests, other than the time lapse for getting results through which I believed were now down to 24/36 hours.
 
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