Prolonging this lockdown for an indeterminate time will mean the avoidance measures being at least as deadly both in terms of lives lived and lives lost.
It may well be later rather than sooner however (when they relax some of the measures) as they couldn't even contemplate it until after the peak of deaths has past and that looks as though it may not be for another fortnight.
One of the advisors today warned the lockdown could be in place for longer than expected as deaths (as often said) is a lagging stat so looking at other more 'forward' stats for when this may be reached can give some idea.
Given that the curve isn't definitely flattening and the rate of increase is only arguably but not definitely slowing, we can look at the rate of ICU admissions where the rate of increase is definitely slowing, but even here it suggests the levelling off is yet to be reached. Deaths will likely fall a fortnight later so the end of April perhaps.
If we give some time after the peak until some measures can be very gradually lifted then you are looking at towards the end of May as otherwise it will just escalate again.
If some sort of mass testing can be safely made available then that looks by far the best way forward to getting businesses to gradually reopen before there aren't any businesses surviving to reopen.
As it is this economic aftermath will cause countless damage perhaps far exceeding that caused by the virus itself, unbelievably tragic and shattering though that has been.
Every death is a tragedy and shocking waste to all connected although lives ruined and early deaths through an absolutely wrecked economy are perhaps the longer lasting effect.
Think this is likely.
On you point about the peak though, we are still on course to start our flattening when Spain/Italy/France/Germany etc have, which would be in our 4th week of lockdown running into the 5th. It's then sustaining these measures for however long this peak lasts and we start to see a downward trend over a sustained amount of time/days.
Then we need to continue the measures at least as they are right now for the start of that downward trend and gradually, gradually ease off. Open things in stages etc.
It's definitely going to be at least the end of May/start of June before we have anything like normal and even then I reckon stuff like large gatherings will be off the table for at least a few more weeks after that.
But I do worry our 'experts' are answering questions about lifting lockdown measures all together - not in phases, which is what should happen.
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