Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[LinekersLegs]

Paying the price for allowing half a million Chinese settling into northern Italy, with tens of thousands returning from China in late February.

Do Italians not travel to China and other places in the world for business/pleasure? I don’t think targeting one demographic of society to blame is going to help anything.

 

[longers]

Yep, Italy is one of the countries worst placed to deal with something like this; Terribly inefficient government, poor healthcare, very old population, a slightly odd attraction to kissing anyone and everyone when greeting them...

Italy is well known for having some of the best healthcare in the world

 

[Bluerover]

Will england be on lockdown soon?

Will there be any chance of going abroad this summer?

Probably and probably not.

Taoiseach Varadkar, who is advised by s very sound Chief Medical Officer with whom I worked closely when i was in the Department of Health, said tonight that up to 60% of the Irish population could contract this. That is over 3 million people.

Even at 5% death rate amongst the vulnerable who have underlying chronic conditions that is 150,000 people.

We are looking at something not seen since the Spanish flu after the First World War which killed anything up to 100 million people worldwide.

God help us!!

 

[Paris]

Where are you currently mate

In bed

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[alvinh]

This is interesting. An exchange with a risk communication expert. Written for the H1N1 virus outbreak but very relevant now:

Regarding what we face now, I want to remind the world that influenza pandemics cannot be stopped, but they can be slowed. Efforts to slow the spread of H1N1 are useful. They buy time, time for community education in things like hygiene, time for the healthcare system to prepare for the burdens of caring for the sick, time to develop and manufacture an H1N1 vaccine, etc.

But ultimately, the virus will spread anyway. And when it does, the things countries are quite rightly doing to slow the spread will no longer be worth doing. I’m talking about things like checking incoming travelers, tracing and then quarantining the contacts of people who have become ill with the disease, administering antivirals even to people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all, etc. Many countries are rightly doing these things when they have only a handful of known cases, and rightly stopping when they have hundreds or even thousands of known cases and evidence of sustained community transmission.

In the UK we're in that first phase. The experts are looking at the data each day. At some point they'll determine that phase has ended. It won't be a case of tracking each person who has come in contact with an infected person, because this virus is going to be endemic within the global population, including here in the UK.

We are at war, although most of us don't realise this yet. All the stuff about hand washing and hygiene has to be treated seriously. We need to slow it down, we need to do everything we can to help our healthcare system and the people that work in it.

 

[Catfish Blues]

What they are doing.

They need to keep hammering out the message because this thread alone is evidence that a lot of people aren't paying attention.

They are telling you that this containment phase will not last forever.

They're telling you that they will then move into the delaying phase.

What does this mean? It means that it's not possible to stop this happening. We will be where Italy is now. Maybe 3-4 weeks if we're lucky?

People asking why they've not shut everything down yet? They're operating according to best practice, playing for time. They try and contain as long as possible and that slows things down. When that fails, as it must in a society like ours, then you can role out the social distancing measures to, again, play for time. They can't keep those going forever, but they need to use whatever time they can get to let the vaccine process proceed whilst they ramp up any and every system they have to cope with what could be 2 million hospitalisations and sadly many deaths.

At the same time, they need to make sure that going into the winter months when the regular flu hits, that we're not at peak COVID19.

Hopefully all that and more is in hand.

China has acted with the full force of a repressive, controlling regime and that approach looks to be winning. We will have to see how the modern western liberal democracy can approach this, because the virus doesn't care what political system we live in.

In all seriousness, that's probably one of the most spot on summaries I've read on our current situation.

In an ideal ( sic ) world, the Western world would do what China's done to control the situation, but, with all due respect to those in the Western world ( including friends and family of people on here ) who may die in the coming months, I'd rather live in the West "as is" than accept the level of control that the Chinese state exercises.

 

[Brisan123]

According to whoever was on the radio this afternoon, there’s no evidence of the virus spreading in UK communities at large, it’s from individuals who have contact with people that have been overseas or come into contact through an infected link that’s already been accounted for.

The problem is if things start getting cancelled for no apparent pressing need then people won’t take it seriously and in effect undermine attempts to curb any outbreak. The French and Italians are working from their own dataset.

Community spread is only a matter of time
The spread will follow the same pattern as Italy
Sticking your head in the sand is not an option

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[LinekersLegs]

Can you dispute his numbers ?.....

No but you can’t find something if you don’t look


The CDC have removed any details of how many tests are being run across the country. This is the same CDC who gives superb details about seasonal flu

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report

Learn more about the weekly influenza surveillance report (FluView) prepared by the Influenza Division.

www.cdc.gov

 

[YoboCopter]

Probably and probably not.

Taoiseach Varadkar, who is advised by s very sound Chief Medical Officer with whom I worked closely when i was in the Department of Health, said tonight that up to 60% of the Irish population could contract this. That is over 3 million people.

Even at 5% death rate amongst the vulnerable who have underlying chronic conditions that is 150,000 people.

We are looking at something not seen since the Spanish flu after the First World War which killed anything up to 100 million people worldwide.

God help us!!

Intresting, so no trips to ibiza this summer...

Least ill save some money if i dont die

 

[davek]

In all seriousness, that's probably one of the most spot on summaries I've read on our current situation.

In an ideal ( sic ) world, the Western world would do what China's done to control the situation, but, with all due respect to those in the Western world ( including friends and family of people on here ) who may die in the coming months, I'd rather live in the West "as is" than accept the level of control that the Chinese state exercises.

Laughable (again).

You think that authoritarianism and intervention are one and the same thing and you'd risk thousands more dying to avoid being more vigilant and interventionist.

 

[Chewbacca]

Currently in Australia visiting our daughter. Hoping to be told we have to stay here.

Forever.

 

[Catfish Blues]

Laughable (again).

You think that authoritarianism and intervention are one and the same thing and you'd risk thousands more dying to avoid being more vigilant and interventionist.

Well, you plainly didn't read what I typed.

If you could do, in the West, what the Chinese have done there, without the downside of the regime they run, then I'd happily see it here, but you can't, so I'll just file you under D for Dozy.

The old saying about those that can do, and those that can't teach is complete bollocks and incredibly harsh on teachers, who do great work without getting the recognition they deserve. But if you tweaked the saying to make it "Those that can do, while those who can't, lecture in politics", then I think it'd be pretty accurate.

 

[verreauxi]

Can you dispute his numbers ?.....

It's not about numbers as fixed-point statistics to be compared, it's about trends and rates over time.