Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[alvinh]

Laughable (again).

You think that authoritarianism and intervention are one and the same thing and you'd risk thousands more dying to avoid being more vigilant and interventionist.

Dave, I appreciate you see this is serious and want action, but many thousands are going to die regardless of what actions the government take.

It should now be apparent that this is a highly communicable virus and it's already circulating within our society. If the government declared martial law, shut every border and suspended each and every civil right we had tomorrow and said that anyone breaking curfew could be shot on sight then many thousands would still die.

Politics is the art of the possible. It's possible that effective actions by the government can help to reduce this, can help our systems to cope. It's important not to overstate this, it's not the end of the world, but when they tell you that they're aiming by their actions to reduce the deaths by 20% to 30% then that should tell you that they recognise and want you to recognise that we are in for a very tough period.

At some point they will do the same thing that Italy has done, experts will be looking at the optimum time to do this. Social distancing will help slow the spread, but the spread will still happen, just hopefully over a longer period. It can't be sustained indefinitely either and if it's implemented too soon it will destroy the credibility of the experts who we will need to listen to over the long haul.

 

[Zezti]

Well, you plainly didn't read what I typed.

If you could do, in the West, what the Chinese have done there, without the downside of the regime they run, then I'd happily see it here, but you can't, so I'll just file you under D for Dozy.

The old saying about those that can do, and those that can't teach is complete bollocks and incredibly harsh on teachers, who do great work without getting the recognition they deserve. But if you tweaked the saying to make it "Those that can do, while those who can't, lecture in politics", then I think it'd be pretty accurate.

I get what you're talking about. I think the UK and Western Europe could manage it, but I can't imagine the outrage in the US if states were quarantined like Italy has had to do. People would be protesting about their amendments and other nonsense and there'd be a big politcal fallout over it.

 

[davek]

Well, you plainly didn't read what I typed.

If you could do, in the West, what the Chinese have done there, without the downside of the regime they run, then I'd happily see it here, but you can't, so I'll just file you under D for Dozy.

The old saying about those that can do, and those that can't teach is complete bollocks and incredibly harsh on teachers, who do great work without getting the recognition they deserve. But if you tweaked the saying to make it "Those that can do, while those who can't, lecture in politics", then I think it'd be pretty accurate.

The point being made was that your Chinese example was being used to make a false binary opposite: that you either have the draconian response of an authoritarian regime or you have the laissez faire minimal western democracy response. We dont just have that choice. We can have a full intervention in this right now, by going to preventative measures like banning large scale gatherings and telling people they can stay at home and work and they'll be covered for it. Make no mistake, the reason this government isn't doing that is ideological AND economic.

There's a choice here in the west: take action now and use a lot of financial and human resources to do so, or fail to invest in that way and suffer the worst of a virus that comes the way of an ill-prepared society.

 

[davek]

Dave, I appreciate you see this is serious and want action, but many thousands are going to die regardless of what actions the government take.

It should now be apparent that this is a highly communicable virus and it's already circulating within our society. If the government declared martial law, shut every border and suspended each and every civil right we had tomorrow and said that anyone breaking curfew could be shot on sight then many thousands would still die.

Politics is the art of the possible. It's possible that effective actions by the government can help to reduce this, can help our systems to cope. It's important not to overstate this, it's not the end of the world, but when they tell you that they're aiming by their actions to reduce the deaths by 20% to 30% then that should tell you that they recognise and want you to recognise that we are in for a very tough period.

At some point they will do the same thing that Italy has done, experts will be looking at the optimum time to do this. Social distancing will help slow the spread, but the spread will still happen, just hopefully over a longer period. It can't be sustained indefinitely either and if it's implemented too soon it will destroy the credibility of the experts who we will need to listen to over the long haul.

Yes, and your last paragraph underlines why social distancing should have been done by now. Delay and hand the health services scope to deal with the casualties. Buy them that time.

A full state response to this can slow the sharp upswings in contagion rates, as the news from South Korea and China underline.

There's a choice here, and as that Italian doctor stated: there's a war being waged on panic in western Europe rather than this virus right now.

 

[alvinh]

Yes, and your last paragraph underlines why social distancing should have been done by now. Delay and hand the health services scope to deal with the casualties. Buy them that time.

A full state response to this can slow the sharp upswings in contagion rates, as the news from South Korea and China underline.

There's a choice here, and as that Italian doctor stated: there's a war being waged on panic in western Europe rather than this virus right now.

As above, the response will come, however it's a judgement call on timing which should be informed by the data and the views of the relevant experts.

The view of those experts is, contrary to what our intuition would tell us, imposing the social distancing measures too early would be counter productive.

 

[NeroCeasar]

I don't like wishing death on anybody, but I have to admit that if he dies from COVID-19 it'd get an unavoidable chuckle out of me after this.

Can you dispute his numbers ?.....

Didn't he claim the other day that the real death rate was nearer 0.1%? His figures there put it at 4%, so he is disputing his own numbers and dosent need anyone to do it on his behalf

 

[Wolf8312]

As above, the response will come, however it's a judgement call on timing which should be informed by the data and the views of the relevant experts.

The view of those experts is, contrary to what our intuition would tell us, imposing the social distancing measures too early would be counter productive.

The idea that social distancing (etc) would be counter-productive is the most bats*hit insane logic I have ever heard, giving that the Italian healthcare system is already on the brink of collapse and the disaster over there, in Korea and China is all too painfully evident.

We have/had a few weeks head start on Italy (months on China) not to make the same mistakes they did, being proactive as opposed to reactive but somehow such measures are supposed to be more dangerous than doing absolutely nothing, and simply waiting for what is happening over there, to happen in the UK...

It's a sick joke...

Evidence elsewhere says that in a few weeks the UK's healthcare system is going to be utterly overwhelmed and the numbers are going to go through the roof, while the government and people scramble to implement the very same measures that they deemed 'counter-productive' only a week earlier.

The Virus is always two weeks ahead, so the damage in two weeks time, has already been done, those people are already infected and infecting more (etc), and more people right now, and we're supposed to just sit back and wait, while it could be my parents, or your parents who end up with this thing? These are not meaningless statistics (old, weakened immune systems etc) but our own countrymen, and loved ones, who are going to die...

This idea that oh we can't do anything because 'we're a democracy' or 'you can only delay not truly contain something like this' is also a steaming pile of sh*ite reflecting a lack of will, not a lack of ability to do something. Even if you do lack the ability, they just give up? They're just getting their excuses out ahead of the disaster they know is to come.

They are utterly indefensible scumbags, derelict in duty, and at the very best criminally negligent, if not actually homicidal in intent. There is no other way to comprehend the idiocy of what they are proposing...

 

[Toast]

The idea that social distancing (etc) would be counter-productive is the most bats*hit insane logic I have ever heard, giving that the Italian healthcare system is already on the brink of collapse and the disaster over there, in Korea and China is all too painfully evident.

We have/had a few weeks head start on Italy (months on China) not to make the same mistakes they did, being proactive as opposed to reactive but somehow such measures are supposed to be more dangerous than doing absolutely nothing, and simply waiting for what is happening over there, to happen in the UK...

It's a sick joke...

Evidence elsewhere says that in a few weeks the UK's healthcare system is going to be utterly overwhelmed and the numbers are going to go through the roof, while the government and people scramble to implement the very same measures that they deemed 'counter-productive' only a week earlier.

The Virus is always two weeks ahead, so the damage in two weeks time, has already been done, those people are already infected and infecting more (etc), and more people right now, and we're supposed to just sit back and wait, while it could be my parents, or your parents who end up with this thing? These are not meaningless statistics (old, weakened immune systems etc) but our own countrymen, and loved ones, who are going to die...

This idea that oh we can't do anything because 'we're a democracy' or 'you can only delay not truly contain something like this' is also a steaming pile of sh*ite reflecting a lack of will, not a lack of ability to do something. Even if you do lack the ability, they just give up? It's just the government getting their excuses out ahead of the disaster they know is to come.

They are utterly indefensible scumbags, derelict in duty, and at the very best criminally negligent, if not actually homicidal in intent. There is no other way to comprehend the idiocy of what they are proposing...

Superb post.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Ruairi77]

Can you dispute his numbers ?.....

Ate you actually defending that tweet?

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[alvinh]

The idea that social distancing (etc) would be counter-productive is the most bats*hit insane logic I have ever heard, giving that the Italian healthcare system is already on the brink of collapse and the disaster over there, in Korea and China is all too painfully evident.

We have/had a few weeks head start on Italy (months on China) not to make the same mistakes they did, being proactive as opposed to reactive but somehow such measures are supposed to be more dangerous than doing absolutely nothing, and simply waiting for what is happening over there, to happen in the UK...

It's a sick joke...

Evidence elsewhere says that in a few weeks the UK's healthcare system is going to be utterly overwhelmed and the numbers are going to go through the roof, while the government and people scramble to implement the very same measures that they deemed 'counter-productive' only a week earlier.

The Virus is always two weeks ahead, so the damage in two weeks time, has already been done, those people are already infected and infecting more (etc), and more people right now, and we're supposed to just sit back and wait, while it could be my parents, or your parents who end up with this thing? These are not meaningless statistics (old, weakened immune systems etc) but our own countrymen, and loved ones, who are going to die...

This idea that oh we can't do anything because 'we're a democracy' or 'you can only delay not truly contain something like this' is also a steaming pile of sh*ite reflecting a lack of will, not a lack of ability to do something. Even if you do lack the ability, they just give up? They're just getting their excuses out ahead of the disaster they know is to come.

They are utterly indefensible scumbags, derelict in duty, and at the very best criminally negligent, if not actually homicidal in intent. There is no other way to comprehend the idiocy of what they are proposing...

You've not understood my post.

The argument isn't that social distancing is counter productive, it's that social distancing measures introduced too soon are less effective and therefore counter productive.

As above, we intuitively feel that we should act as soon as possible. The experts tell us differently. They do this having studied hundreds of outbreaks, assessed countless responses. Modelled all of this in simulations. etc etc.

You may know better than them, I don't pretend to.

 

[Paris]

Last week's kebab won't still be giving you the trots mate.

Right, and because of the ridiculous overreaction to the virus I can't get checked out by a doctor for another 10 days. Same with the cough which I'm pretty sure is because of a lung infection.

The only thing I can do is just hope against hope that the trots and the cough are not due to far more serious issues. Which, had they been seen to early enough could have prevented any serious damage to the body.

 

[Paris]

Has your knob dropped off yet?

Still there but I've not used it except to pee for almost a week now.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Good news but what worries me is reintroduction. Without a vaccine and without a community immunity this will likely spread again quickly.