Current Affairs Coronavirus Thread - Serious stuff !!!

[Tipp blue]

Possibly, I have no idea what the demographics of the passengers were, so wouldn't want to jump to conclusions either way, but even the fact that scientists believe under 9s may catch it without showing any symptoms whatsoever would cast doubt on the reliability of stats out in the wild. We obviously know how many people have died from it, and indeed how many are sufficiently serious to require hospitalisation, but we are largely guessing how many people have caught it in some shape or form.

Here's the demographic of the Diamond Princess. The asymptomatic cases those positive but with no symptoms is more than twice those with symptoms. Over 70s account for almost half the number of passengers but account for 100% of deaths.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

And we’ll only really know even that rate in a couple of months when all passangers and crew are in the clear

Diamond Princess passenger dies, bringing ship's death toll to seven: NHK

A man who had been aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship and was infected with coronavirus has died, bringing the death toll from the ship to seven, Japanese public broadcaster NHK said on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

Indeed. A number of passengers are still in serious condition, so it's still very hard to make concrete judgements.

 

[tsubaki]

You're not familiar with dark data huh? You might find this interesting from an Imperial mathmatician.

Dark Data

A practical guide to making good decisions in a world of missing data

press.princeton.edu

No, I just find it hilarious that so many people feel free to raise that opinion now that the orange clown in the White House, followed by his mates in the media, has espoused it.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

No, I just find it hilarious that so many people feel free to raise that opinion now that the orange clown in the White House, followed by his mates in the media, has espoused it.

Even a broken clock is right once in a while.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Indeed. A number of passengers are still in serious condition, so it's still very hard to make concrete judgements.

Agree, even the base # could well change as passengers/crew that initially tested clear at the start test positive as their quarantine progresses.

Also the older patients are likely to be the ones that sadly succumb earlier so even the age distribution isn’t set in stone.

Unfortunately we are likely to have other cruise ship data samples to compare as for some unfathomable reason they are still going ahead.

 

[tsubaki]

Even a broken clock is right once in a while.

He isn’t, though. He is claiming the real figure is way below 1% and he’s doing it to excuse his usual incompetence.

There might well be a number of people who get it but have no symptoms, but without testing everyone there’s absolutely no way he could ever make that statement with any degree of certainty.

 

[LinekersLegs]

He isn’t, though. He is claiming the real figure is way below 1% and he’s doing it to excuse his usual incompetence.

There might well be a number of people who get it but have no symptoms, but without testing everyone there’s absolutely no way he could ever make that statement with any degree of certainty.

At this point it would be a major improvement if the US were able to test those with symptoms and known contacts They haven't even tested all the people at the facility at the heart of the Washington outbreak.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

He isn’t, though. He is claiming the real figure is way below 1% and he’s doing it to excuse his usual incompetence.

There might well be a number of people who get it but have no symptoms, but without testing everyone there’s absolutely no way he could ever make that statement with any degree of certainty.

Well if we make the reasonable assumption that there are going to be people out there who have caught this that the authorities don't know about, and therefore don't include in their statistics, it's impossible for the figure to get bigger, isn't it? It can literally only get lower.

 

[zzr45]

Maybe, just maybe you don't know everything?

I’m not claiming to. That’s why I’m asking you to educate me as to how this virus becomes more dangerous at night.

 

[davids]

Factor in that something like 25pc of the UK population is ›70 and the possibility of emergency facilities being overwhelmed.

Although it's likely many will be in care homes where they will be isolated to die there. The governments worldwide are showing they are totally inept in dealing with this type of outbreak.SARS taught them nothing.

 

[Tipp blue]

No, I just find it hilarious that so many people feel free to raise that opinion now that the orange clown in the White House, followed by his mates in the media, has espoused it.

I've held that opinion since before Trump said anything about it. In reality the only complete data we have is from the diamond princess where 3700 people were tested, 17% tested positive 620, of those just over 50% 318 had no symptoms. Transferring this to the general population it will lower the fatality rate % by half. Even with the complete data it is also skewed by the demographic of those on board almost half the passengers are over 70.
So the option I have formed on this is perfectly valid. 24 hour news and social media have made this worse in people's heads than it actually is. Don't get me wrong it's bad but nowhere near as bad as we are led to believe.

 

[davids]

I’m not claiming to. That’s why I’m asking you to educate me as to how this virus becomes more dangerous at night.

Or less communicable in Summer??

 

[Bruce Wayne]

I’m not claiming to. That’s why I’m asking you to educate me as to how this virus becomes more dangerous at night.

It's clearly transmitted via happy times, which perhaps explains why it's so rampant in Italy. Horny buggers.

 

[Brennan]

So people working in restaurants can’t get ill? One customer can’t pass it on to a waiter/ess who then passes it on to everyone they into contact with? Surely you either go all in or don’t bother?

Every large public gathering which is cancelled reduces the overall chance of spreading the virus, therefore most public gatherings being postponed is obviously better than not bothering at all.

 

[Paris]

The UK government stated a few days ago that they expect the outbreak to subside in the Summer when the virus is less likely to be a spreadable,bit like standard flu. Singapore whoever is seeing increasing number of cases where oddly the temperature is in the 30s. You couldn't make this up.

The number of cases in Thailand however has remained relatively low.