I thought I was lost first time round...
Current Affairs China
- Thread starter Daveysgingerlovechild
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Interesting graphic showing the latest PLAN deployment of forces around Taiwan. You have to believe that they are very serious about Taiwan and it’s just a matter of when not if.
Yarrgh
Player Valuation: £80m
What could anyone do if they took Taiwan? It's not a recognised country, it's got very few formal alliances. And more importantly it's isolated away from any iseful major ally by 100s of miles away and that's only an outpost that's 1000s of miles from home.
At this moment in time - not a lot. The US does not have enough strategic military assets in place, such as naval assets, logistic hubs, military staging posts to counter such a move by China.
The US have stated many times that they will stand by Taiwan but, surely have exhausted a lot of kit in Ukraine and just may not be up to it.
Was hoping that the Japanese/Aussies/Philipines etc may get invloved if the US do.
God knows
tsubaki
Player Valuation: £90m
Indeed. Most of the world has signed up to the One China idea, and are not in any position to help with military forces anyway. Only the US can really help with conventional forces and its very questionable if they could get there in time (or at all) to make a difference.
That said, perhaps its time for everyone to read about Chang Hsien-Yi.
peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
if Ukraine has taught us anything it’s that missiles and drones can do a lot of damage. China somehow has to get into Taiwan, physically land having covered the water or flown in above. Attacking an island that has been preparing for decades is not quite the same as just rolling over a border in tanks……imo……
Oh it would be a tough ask and China would suffer massive casualties, however their massive available resources would eventually overcome Taiwan. How quickly they can do that is the big question.
The US would need to have a fully forward deployed marine division either on or very close to Taiwan in order to provide the kind of land force required to support the Taiwanese in repelling an invasion.
They’d also need military co-op and support from Japan and South Korea. Exactly how much those nations are willing to offer in the face of Chinese hostilities is not very clear at this time.
Naval assets, logistic hubs, staging areas would all need to be pre-deployed and activated in order to respond with the level of force needed.
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peteblue
Welcome back Wayne
It’s an interesting scenario. The USA and its allies could just blitz NK. China then has two fronts, one physically on its border with all the logistic hubs already in place. It’s not a one way street as I see it…but who knows…
Yarrgh
Player Valuation: £80m
Yarrgh
Player Valuation: £80m
If the US put forces into Taiwan, they'd be putting forces onto Chinese territory as per the perception of China. I don't think even the most hawkish about US military involvement would risk this.
Spadge Vernacular
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The US do not want China getting hold of Taiwans chip/semi conductor industry. Access to that would for China would have all kinds of implications.
It hasn't been "if" for a long time. Xi has already said he will take Taiwan by force if necessary. They have been really ramping their presence in the South China Sea the last few years, building artificial islands and militarising them.
That leaves the US and its allies only one route to protect Taiwan - from the East. That is why the US and the Philippines are rushing to set up US navy bases in the country.
But if China can shore up the South China Sea before the bases are built and manned, Taiwan will be history
Yarrgh
Player Valuation: £80m
I think that the capability would be destroyed (or at least attempted to be) by Taiwan themselves before it look like China eould take them over.
Spadge Vernacular
Player Valuation: £70m
You'd hope so. The yanks probably have plans in place to assist but you'd fear for the technical teams on the ground if China got hold of them.
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