Russian private millitary contractor, Wagner, is committed to its strategy of creating and supporting coups in Francophone African countries, which create a demand for UN and Western support to leave these countries. Wagner then step in on the pretext of assisting with military support but with the condition of controlling mineral resources.
A Malian and Wagner military convoy captured a strategically important position in Kidal region’s southern area in October and will likely attempt to capture the vacated UN base at the regional capital Kidal town in the coming weeks. The convoy of 119 vehicles captured the crossroads town of Anefis from Tuareg rebels on October 7.[1] Anefis is a strategically important location that lies at a fork in the RN18 highway, which runs through northern Mali to rebel-held Kidal town 70 miles to the northeast and Aguelhok 115 miles to the north. Anefis also now serves as an operational base for regime operations—including drone strikes—against the rebels and militants in Kidal town.
The Malian-Wagner convoy initially intended to backfill the UN base in Kidal town in November. However the UN expedited its withdrawal to avoid being caught in the crossfire between Malian security forces and Tuareg rebels and left the Kidal base on October 31, allowing rebels to seize the area.[2] Malian and Wagner forces are also expecting Russian military shipments in the coming weeks that would aid such an offensive.[3] Capturing Kidal town is the junta’s ultimate goal and would be a symbolic victory against the Tuareg rebels, who have controlled the town since they captured it during the 2012 Tuareg rebellion. The junta has also repeatedly emphasized controlling northern Mali as a main tenant of national sovereignty.[4]
- Malian and Wagner forces conducted at least five drone strikes on Kidal town from November 3 to 8.[5] Strikes on November 7 targeted the former UN camp and an auction site, which the Kidal town mayor said killed at least 14 civilians.[6] The drone strikes on Kidal town indicate that Malian and Wagner forces are trying to soften the city’s defenses, which is in line with efforts to retake the regional capital.[7]
- Russian military shipments to Mali since 2021 have included attack and transport helicopters, fighter and trainer jets, mobile radar systems, and unspecified weapons and ammunition.[8] An open-source intelligence X account said the Malian junta had signed a contract for the equipment during the Africa-Russia Summit in St. Petersburg on July 30.[9] The Malian junta leader also discussed military support for an offensive in northern Mali with Russian military leaders in Bamako in September and has had three phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin since the beginning of August.[10]
- Tuareg rebels captured Kidal town and other strategic towns in northern Mali in the initial stages of the 2012 Tuareg rebellion.[11] Separatist rebels have controlled Kidal town and most other towns in the region since 2013 after they captured the town from Salafi-jihadist rebels with the assistance of French forces when the broader rebel coalition fractured.[12] The Malian army failed to retake the town in a 2014 offensive.[13] The Malian junta has repeatedly referenced reestablishing state control across the entire country as a critical objective, and the junta head reiterated this message in a speech on Malian Independence Day in September.[14]
Malian and Wagner operations to capture the vacated UN base at Kidal town almost certainly precludes efforts to relieve pressure on besieged Malian-Wagner forces in northern Kidal region through attacks on the rebel-held base at Aguelhok. Malian and Kremlin-funded Wagner Group forces arrived to backfill departing UN forces at the third UN base in the Kidal region in Tessalit, 60 miles north of Aguelhok, on October 13.[15] Tuareg rebels are now besieging the Tessalit base and have demonstrated effective antiair capabilities to interdict Malian efforts to reinforce and resupply the base.[16]
Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) conducted several improvised explosive device attacks on UN convoys in July. This shows that JNIM has mined the surrounding area.[17] Pushing toward Tessalit via Aguelhok would funnel Malian and Wagner forces into one front and at least temporarily compromise any threat of two-front pressure on Kidal town. Kidal town’s geographic proximity to Anefis lessens the ground that security forces would cover on mined roadways, puts the Malian drone base in Anefis in more comfortable range of operations, and keeps supply lines more compact than if security forces moved toward Tessalit.
- UN forces expedited their withdrawal timeline from the three bases in northern Mali’s Kidal region, from mid-November to the end of October, after being caught in the cross fire between Malian security forces and Tuareg rebels.[18] UN forces withdrew from Tessalit on October 21, Aguelhok on October 23, and Kidal town on October 31.[19] Malian forces backfilled the Tessalit base by air before UN forces left, while rebels backfilled Aguelhok and Kidal after UN forces withdrew.[20]
- Unverified pro-rebel and social media reports claimed that Tuareg rebels damaged or shot down a Nigerien C-130 that the Malian junta was using to resupply Wagner forces in Tessalit on October 30.[21] Additional reports said that Tuareg rebels had damaged another cargo plane landing at the base on October 17.[22] The rebels claimed they downed three Malian planes in two separate incidents in the Gao region on September 9 and October 4.[23] JNIM is also active in the area and has shot down Wagner helicopters in central Mali.[24]
- The Ukrainian military reported that the Malian air force and Wagner forces in Mali use TB2 drones.[25] The basic TB2 model has a maximum communication range of 186 miles, which means all three former UN bases are within range of the makeshift TB2 base at Anefis.[26]
Key Takeaway: Malian and Wagner forces will likely attempt to capture the vacated UN base in the Kidal regional capital in the coming weeks. Malian and Wagner forces have the conventional capabilities to clear the base but almost certainly lack the
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