'Ought' 8s doing some very heavy lifting there
Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
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Efcjake
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He never won enough momentum to change the day and any real socially progressive class concerned candidate will face the same issues.
The establishment threw him away in favour of Clinton because they didn't believe that the public would believe in his class-based messaging so they hung their hats on the idea of a first woman president representing being "progressive". All it did was tell the poors that the liberal elites managing the party don't want to focus on their issues, so they went to Trump who told them it was OK to be angry.
Thanks for a reply focusing on the issues at hand, I agree that it worth revisiting in a few months.
If we do on, those 3 specific original points and deportation fwiw heres my thoughts. I would be exceedingly delighted to be wrong on all of them.
1) Jan 6th - Yep he’ll pardon them. Perhaps one or two who were the convicted of the most violent assualts on the police officers he might get talked out of but I think the blowback he’d get among his most ardent fans if he doesn’t release them all will mean even they are pardoned.
2) Federal abortion ban. Ironically this is the position that Trump himself is most uncomfortable with as his flip flopping on Florida abortion vote demonstrated, he himself likely supports abortion and would prefer to see the whole thing now left to the states. However he has the “pro-life” tiger by the tail and if the GOP have the House/Senate/Presidency there is going to be a lot of pressure to put it to a vote - I don’t think he’d veto a ban if it made it to his desk. The most likely outcome I can see is a “shadow ban” - making it much harder to distribute abortion drugs by mail, further criminalization of medical providers and resultant pullback of suppliers so that in practice, if not in theory, abortions are even less available.
3) Vaccines. I don’t think even the GOP has gone quite nuts enough to ban them outright. But again I think there will be roadblocks put in to existing access and wide disinformation included as to their dangers (Vance recently talked on Rogan about being red-pilled about them).
4) Deportation. Yes, logistically you can’t deport all the people he has claimed him will. As I said earlier in the thread I think the best we can hope for is that he does a few high profile stunts, gets bored, claims success and goes play golf. But he will likely have many in his admin who are true believers on this, I expect things like removing protected status for Haitians (those supposedly eating cats and dogs) and kicking some longstanding immigrants out even if they have no criminal record.
FrenchDarrenBent
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He'll miss his rallies. I'd wager he'll be back by christmas, behind his mic, rambling on.
TimHowardsBeardJuice
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oh, be clear that he has no interest whatsoever in the actual nuts and bolts of governing.
doesn't matter. he's mentally deteriorating anyway. He's now the figurehead for some very capable people with truly bad intent.
Not a an outright ban. Pharmaceutical companies would fight that - may still for any restrictions.
More likely, they'll find a way to stop schools & employers requiring them such as no federal funds or federal contracts if vaccines are required.
Efcjake
Player Valuation: £80m
I can also see them bogging down the approval process. That was one of the main points against the vaccines was about how they apparently were granted exceptions over testing timelines. Any barriers they can put up, they will.
The minute the pharmaceutical industry lean on RFK he'll sing a completely different tune. These people have no actual convictions other than self-promotion
There are plenty of police and sheriffs all over the US that will follow through for him on this. It will also be license to harass any BIPOC
Here's my two cents:
1) Jan 6 - oh yeah - all those guys are out of jail now. At least if they were in federal prisons. The ones convicted in state courts, like the woman in CO, may take longer to get out.
2) Honestly, I'm optimistic here. Trump, himself, I never thought really is against abortion. I wouldn't be surprised if he's paid for some himself. I view this as a transaction he needed to do to secure the white christian vote. Now that he has it, he doesn't really care any more. Now, all of the horrific people that are going to do the policy stuff under him, they may want that, but Trump isn't going to make this part of his main agenda. I can dream.
3) Vaccines - agreed. The GOP, at large, is not that crazy. They will lose support around the edges on this. I think House GOP will feel the effects of this if they go after vaccines in the 2026 midterms. Nothing to gain here. It's another issue Trump himself doesn't care about
4) I would want to be a black or brown immigrant right now, whether here legally or illegally. Let's just leave it at that. Our hope here is they botch what they are trying to do so badly, it gets bogged down in courts, etc, etc.
On your point about him getting bored, I 100% agree with this. Unlike someone like a Nixon who would work hard every day to do policy stuff he cared about, Trump doesn't care about any of these things. First and foremost he ran in 2024 to stay out of jail - mission accomplished, and he'll never have to worry about that ever again. Now it's going to be all about 1) going after his enemies and 2) doing as much racist and racist-adjacent stuff as he can and 3) making as much money as he can. Nothing else will matter to him.
Correct, this is the downside, especially your second sentence. 100% that will happen
But legally doing your first sentence will require attention to detail by his sychophants, which they may not do efficiently if at all
If they shutter the FDA as RFK suggests, absolutely will slow it down.
Will be interesting to see the fight between big pharma donors and the GOP
Actually think RFK does hold these views sincerely, it is what makes me worry about him so much.
Not to start that fight again, but...
They didn't change the time lines. The government threw money at Pharma. So Pharma ran the studies near parallel instead of sequential. Sequential saves money, but who cares when it's not your money!
Here's where I get so frustrated though.
The GOP isn't doing anything for working people either. In fact, they are running on things that will actively hurt working people. They don't care. Trump says I'll bring down the price of groceries and they lap it up. The only way to bring down the price of groceries would be to implement government regulations/socialism (gasp), which they hate. The GOP is only offering them someone to blame for their plight (and it's not who's actually to blame, like the billionaires that sent their jobs overseas and busting unions in places like western PA and WV).
Biden actually did do things for working families, and unions. But b/c it ensured they had a job rather than lost it, and b/c inflation made things cost more, these people felt like the economy was bad, when it's truly not bad, and in fact it's good. But people vote on feelings, not facts.
So Bernie can say whatever lip service he wants, and these voters can wrap everything up into "the economy is bad" but I know enough of these people, personally, that all of this is nonsense. It's really code for something else. Everyone wants a quick fix for everything as it relates to blue collar jobs, when no one can snap their fingers and make jobs appear out of thin air (which the Biden Admin actually did by the way with the IRA).
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