Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[Noisy noise annoys]

North Carolina strong.

PLEASE

 

[Harryflashman]

Todays odds

7/10 Trump
7/5 Harris

There is no way to deny that from a betting perspective the last 10 days has seen a huge shift in the odds favouring trump .

 

[FrenchDarrenBent]

Todays odds

7/10 Trump
7/5 Harris

There is no way to deny that from a betting perspective the last 10 days has seen a huge shift in the odds favouring trump .

Well, last time, november 2022, there was quite a polling error. The red wave never materialized...
Still, it's almost like he's invincible. He could shoot a man live on television, it wouldn't change a thing.

 

[BlueTX]

Todays odds

7/10 Trump
7/5 Harris

There is no way to deny that from a betting perspective the last 10 days has seen a huge shift in the odds favouring trump .

"From a betting perspective" is about as scientific as the transfer thread views from ITKs on 16-year-olds who play footy in Serbia.

 

[BlueTX]

Dave Bautista... nobody causing more ketchup stains at Mar a Lago these days.

 

[RAFUH]

That's one Harris vote in NC!

 

[davek]

I know a lot of money has been placed on Trump in the betting markets, but I see those long queues forming already and dont associate it with Trump voters. Motivation levels are sky high to get out and vote.

The poll swing back to Trump IMO is overstated. I still expect a narrow Harris victory. The pollsters have made their adjustments this past two weeks to avoid a third successive underestimation in the general election of Trump's support.

 

[ste d' indica]

I know a lot of money has been placed on Trump in the betting markets, but I see those long queues forming already and dont associate it with Trump voters. Motivation levels are sky high to get out and vote.

The poll swing back to Trump IMO is overstated. I still expect a narrow Harris victory. The pollsters have made their adjustments this past two weeks to avoid a third successive underestimation in the general election of Trump's support.

There's a lot of noise around the betting. Much of this pro-Trump swing is driven by mega high stakes bids by a micro number of individuals (or whatever...) on Polymarket, which is crypto based offshore new entrant backed by notorious right wing bad actor Peter Thiel. As I understand it, Americans can't even use it. It's pure electioneering by the looks of it.

 

[Tommy Chong]

I know a lot of money has been placed on Trump in the betting markets, but I see those long queues forming already and dont associate it with Trump voters. Motivation levels are sky high to get out and vote.

The poll swing back to Trump IMO is overstated. I still expect a narrow Harris victory. The pollsters have made their adjustments this past two weeks to avoid a third successive underestimation in the general election of Trump's support.

Dave…

Be more like Dave:

Dave Bautista... nobody causing more ketchup stains at Mar a Lago these days.

 

[davek]

Dave…

Be more like Dave:

 

[davek]

There's a lot of noise around the betting. Much of this pro-Trump swing is driven by mega high stakes bids by a micro number of individuals (or whatever...) on Polymarket, which is crypto based offshore new entrant backed by notorious right wing bad actor Peter Thiel. As I understand it, Americans can't even use it. It's pure electioneering by the looks of it.

Yes. But wouldn't the pollsters be able to factor out that influence in some way?

 

[Ruairi77]

Coarse language here but he's right. How can anyone be undecided?

 

[Harryflashman]

"From a betting perspective" is about as scientific as the transfer thread views from ITKs on 16-year-olds who play footy in Serbia.

I think if you’re talking about Everton manager I agree but in something like this people are putting huge money on it but like the Everton Manager people who place large bets often feel like they have the inside track .

I said the other day I can’t reconcile it with your polling I’ve seen , it’s illustrative in as it’s tough to work out what’s going on and there has been speculation in this thread .

It’s just something I found mildly interesting for a few reasons .

 

[Harryflashman]

There's a lot of noise around the betting. Much of this pro-Trump swing is driven by mega high stakes bids by a micro number of individuals (or whatever...) on Polymarket, which is crypto based offshore new entrant backed by notorious right wing bad actor Peter Thiel. As I understand it, Americans can't even use it. It's pure electioneering by the looks of it.

See this I agree with but again still an interesting development

 

[ste d' indica]

Yes. But wouldn't the pollsters be able to factor out that influence in some way?

I'm only thinking about the swing in the betting, not linked to the polling, sorry that wasn't very clear.