Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[coollino]

That is one deep rabbit hole.

To replace Biden at the convention by the rules, one would have to persuade 2000 Biden loyalists to vote against him. If they don't line up behind the same person, then the 700 or so superdelegates join the party, and they vote until they settle on someone. This is not considered a likely outcome.

The procedural way to get Biden out, if all else fails, is the 25th Amendment. That absolutely requires Harris and eight cabinet secretaries. As I understand it, "Cabinet-level officials" such as the director of the OMB, CIA and Ambassador to the UN don't count.

Any eight will do. However, two of them (Labor and HUD) have acting status, meaning they have not been confirmed by the Senate in that role. In principle this means seven would be enough, but Biden's team would immediately file for relief in DC federal court and all hell would break loose. Ditto if they get to eight with an acting in the majority. In practice, this means a supermajority of eight of thirteen.

Blinken is a hard "no". It would be a very difficult sell to Garland. Buttigieg has cause to avoid sullying his hands with it. It wouldn't be a good look for Austin after his December fiasco. Yellen might be gettable.

That leaves it in the hands of the wild cards, and your guess is as good as mine what they would do. If the Cabinet votes are secured, then a third of the Democrats in both houses (plus one in the Senate) would have to join the Republicans, assuming they vote in favor, once Biden's team says he's fine and forces the vote required by Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

TL;DR: It's all but impossible unless Biden falls on his sword.

Thanks, they are in a right mess aren't they

 

[summerisle]

 

[degsy]

This didn't just spring up last Thursday and was confirmed today.
The Dems have been playing silly buggers for 3or 4 yrs gambling that Joe would last, but he's gone down hill just that bit too quick.

Shame on them, what a gang of 2@s

 

[wm02]

It’s over for Biden. Might as well go the route of Orrin Hatch and walk away with your honor intact rather than stubbornly and selfishly grasping onto power to the very end like Dianne Feinstein

 

[MrPerfectNot]

This won't go well, already isn't. Quite frankly his stance on Gaza should've ended him before now.

Your first sentence is accurate. The second isn't - Gaza is an atrocity, but it as an issue is not the sole decision point on which the presidency should be decided.

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[PhilM]

That is one deep rabbit hole.

To replace Biden at the convention by the rules, one would have to persuade 2000 Biden loyalists to vote against him. If they don't line up behind the same person, then the 700 or so superdelegates join the party, and they vote until they settle on someone. This is not considered a likely outcome.

The procedural way to get Biden out, if all else fails, is the 25th Amendment. That absolutely requires Harris and eight cabinet secretaries. As I understand it, "Cabinet-level officials" such as the director of the OMB, CIA and Ambassador to the UN don't count.

Any eight will do. However, two of them (Labor and HUD) have acting status, meaning they have not been confirmed by the Senate in that role. In principle this means seven would be enough, but Biden's team would immediately file for relief in DC federal court and all hell would break loose. Ditto if they get to eight with an acting in the majority. In practice, this means a supermajority of eight of thirteen.

Blinken is a hard "no". It would be a very difficult sell to Garland. Buttigieg has cause to avoid sullying his hands with it. It wouldn't be a good look for Austin after his December fiasco. Yellen might be gettable.

That leaves it in the hands of the wild cards, and your guess is as good as mine what they would do. If the Cabinet votes are secured, then a third of the Democrats in both houses (plus one in the Senate) would have to join the Republicans, assuming they vote in favor, once Biden's team says he's fine and forces the vote required by Section 4 of the 25th Amendment.

TL;DR: It's all but impossible unless Biden falls on his sword.

Perhaps thinking out of the box here, but would it currently be in the interest of the Republicans to oust him from his office, or is leaving him be, safer?

It would depend on whether a fragile Biden is more a threat to Trump than a new candidate, who may actually go up against him and revitalise the electorate.

Right now, Biden looks in the mire, so leaving him to sort his/their own noose may be worth it rather than letting them get behind someone new.

 

[wm02]

Perhaps thinking out of the box here, but would it currently be in the interest of the Republicans to oust him from his office, or is leaving him be, safer?

It would depend on whether a fragile Biden is more a threat to Trump than a new candidate, who may actually go up against him and revitalise the electorate.

Right now, Biden looks in the mire, so leaving him to sort his/their own noose may be worth it rather than letting them get behind someone new.

From a political perspective, I think the Republicans are best served leaving things alone. Let the other party bicker amongst themselves while each gaffe continues to amplify the pressure. It’s become the primary issue of the election and media have Biden under the microscope.

 

[LinekersLegs]

And yet….

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[Rita_Poon]

Sounds like the kinda stuff they have on loop at Guantanamo bay.

 

[Noisy noise annoys]

I am sure I read that half a billion dollars they have had donated only applies to either him or Kamala running, so in reality, it can only be them.

Awaits correction

edit - it is not that much but is correct.

Here's what happens to Biden's campaign funds if he withdraws

While President Biden is insisting he won't back out of the 2024 race, what would happen to his campaign funds if he did decide to drop out?

www.yahoo.com

 

[tsubaki]

And yet….

I'd imagine this is driven by the focus being on Biden's age and apparent senility; it applies to the other guy at least as much.

 

[I can't even]

 

[carolinablue232]

And yet….

That’s national I presume? Last I saw for the swing states, Trump was leading all of them between 1%-5%. That’s what needs to change.