Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[LinekersLegs]

 

[tsubaki]

Thought this was a good article in the New Yorker

The Case for Joe Biden Staying in the Race

The known bad candidate is better than the chaos of the unknown.

www.newyorker.com

These are all extremely compelling reasons to ask Biden to step aside or to start an insurgency leading up to the convention in August. But if the point of this election is to defeat Trump—and I imagine for many Democrats it is—then you have to do some dirty calculations and realize that you don’t have a Plan B because all the backups aren’t ready yet, and because introducing one of them in the middle of the game is a risky gamble, at best.

There are countless problems that would come with the process of choosing a new candidate—if you bypass Kamala Harris, for example, does she just go quietly? And how do you sell the optics of nullifying the logical norms of succession for the first Black person and first woman to ever serve as Vice-President?

If you’re a supporter of Gavin Newsom, are you even sure he will agree to take on a potential losing and chaotic run at an office he could much more credibly run for in 2028? If you believe Gretchen Whitmer has the best chance of defeating Trump, because of her advantage in the “blue wall” states, does her relative paucity of national connections tank her chances in a convention setting?

Perhaps none of these are as weighty of a concern as Biden’s bad debate, but every road you go down with any of the possible substitutes kicks up potentially endless questions like these.

Can you invite such chaos when you can’t even decide on the successor? Or are Biden’s chances so dismal that any warm body would be preferable to watching him decline in public, get mercilessly ridiculed by Trump for the next four months, and then ultimately lose a low-turnout landslide that also takes out Democrats in the House and Senate? What are the chances that the Party can actually coalesce around a plan, whatever that might be?

They’ve absolutely got to pick someone that everyone has to get behind, but letting Biden carry on is doomed to failure.

In fact I wouldn’t be that surprised if we go through this, he fights on past the convention and makes everyone get behind him - and then doesn’t wake up one morning.

 

[davek]

I dont think, as long as Biden has 95% of the delegates, they can do much.
The only way he doesn't run is if he decides to drop out.
That happens if a) his family convince him or B) big money donors get the hebe jebes.
I've wanted him to drop out for years.
I actually think the effect on down ballot voting for the Dems could be catastrophic.
He was doing ok till Thursday, but unfortunately for him, the only thing he couldn't afford to do on Thursday was give the impression he's too old,
and he did just that.
The wagons have been circled and the 'off night' line rolled out.
But I'm with you, I don't think he can roll this back.
The next debate is in September and if he's still the nominee it'll be a slow motion car crash.

The only area I was constantly on at you was the war. It's important for about 10% of the vote in Michigan and thats about it.
Newsom, Harris, or any of the others dont do a thing different and none would be as bad as Trump.

Well, the Gaza slaughter is more important than its electoral effect in the US.

In any case, and as you've stated, he's been getting the runaround from Netanyahu and looking unable to affect matters, and that contributes to his demeanour of weakness and incompetency.

Biden and the Democrats will pay for their failure to lead over Gaza.

 

[davek]

There are countless problems that would come with the process of choosing a new candidate—if you bypass Kamala Harris, for example, does she just go quietly? And how do you sell the optics of nullifying the logical norms of succession for the first Black person and first woman to ever serve as Vice-President?
If you’re a supporter of Gavin Newsom, are you even sure he will agree to take on a potential losing and chaotic run at an office he could much more credibly run for in 2028? If you believe Gretchen Whitmer has the best chance of defeating Trump, because of her advantage in the “blue wall” states, does her relative paucity of national connections tank her chances in a convention setting?

Perhaps none of these are as weighty of a concern as Biden’s bad debate, but every road you go down with any of the possible substitutes kicks up potentially endless questions like these.

Can you invite such chaos when you can’t even decide on the successor? Or are Biden’s chances so dismal that any warm body would be preferable to watching him decline in public, get mercilessly ridiculed by Trump for the next four months, and then ultimately lose a low-turnout landslide that also takes out Democrats in the House and Senate? What are the chances that the Party can actually coalesce around a plan, whatever that might be?

You have to be kidding me?

This is the job for the most powerful job in the world. Do you really think any career politician in the US wouldn't jump at the chance to become POTUS?

It's a chance of a lifetime and they'd take a chance on falling flat on their faces to get it.

The old proverb of 'A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush' applies here.

 

[davids]

It's become a very dark comedy show.

 

[Rita_Poon]

Think the smugness of hilary and the expectation of a near default win has warned a few careerists off, also promoting trump gave the thicko's and racists a boost to keep at supporting the anti politics option. Once they saw they could win* it was a means unto itself. 'This country works for me or it works for no one'. No one won through. Stalemate, and the world continued to burn. Sadly another case of "I'm alright Jack!", though twisted somewhat.

 

[davek]

It's become a very dark comedy show.

It's a show hurtling to the only conclusion it's likely to have - ceteris paribus.

If the DNC don't do their job it ends in Trump 47.

I can still see amongst some Democratic supporters on this forum a marked reluctance to wake up and smell the coffee on that.

The Democrats are too paralysed with fear to make the right decision.

 

[BlueTX]

It's a show hurtling to the only conclusion it's likely to have - ceteris paribus.

If the DNC don't do their job it ends in Trump 47.

I can still see amongst some Democratic supporters on this forum a marked reluctance to wake up and smell the coffee on that.

The Democrats are too paralysed with fear to make the right decision.

Pragmatism (most Dem or anti-Trump folk) v panic (largely davek).

We are two weeks away from what will almost assuredly be a dystopian freakshow of a GOP convention that will overshadow the recent debate in national media. Then it will be up to the party (and Biden) to provide a contrast to the GOP's backward vision of the US and their felon/rapist/grifting/compulsive liar/malignant narcissist candidate a month later at their own convention.

At this time in 2020, Joe Biden had been the confirmed candidate of the Dems for 3 weeks. We are 4 months away from the election. In American politics, that's about 40 media cycles. Being cocksure today what will happen in November is not a sign you've had your coffee and we have not.

It's bluster.

 

[Harryflashman]

Pragmatism (most Dem or anti-Trump folk) v panic (largely davek).

We are two weeks away from what will almost assuredly be a dystopian freakshow of a GOP convention that will overshadow the recent debate in national media. Then it will be up to the party (and Biden) to provide a contrast to the GOP's backward vision of the US and their felon/rapist/grifting/compulsive liar/malignant narcissist candidate a month later at their own convention.

At this time in 2020, Joe Biden had been the confirmed candidate of the Dems for 3 weeks. We are 4 months away from the election. In American politics, that's about 40 media cycles. Being cocksure today what will happen in November is not a sign you've had your coffee and we have not.

It's bluster.

It was interesting to see Allan lichtman on CNN completely rubbishing the narrative around Biden , effectively saying ‘debates are meaningless’ . Lichtman also added hiliary Clinton won all three debates as have many others losers while Obama lost , quite a good watch .

 

[davek]

Pragmatism (most Dem or anti-Trump folk) v panic (largely davek).

We are two weeks away from what will almost assuredly be a dystopian freakshow of a GOP convention that will overshadow the recent debate in national media. Then it will be up to the party (and Biden) to provide a contrast to the GOP's backward vision of the US and their felon/rapist/grifting/compulsive liar/malignant narcissist candidate a month later at their own convention.

At this time in 2020, Joe Biden had been the confirmed candidate of the Dems for 3 weeks. We are 4 months away from the election. In American politics, that's about 40 media cycles. Being cocksure today what will happen in November is not a sign you've had your coffee and we have not.

It's bluster.

Well, I'm not sure it's just me who believes Trump will beat Biden, if it comes to that.

Trump - short of being jailed - is beating Biden.

The American electorate aren't going to vote for a man just because he's not Trump. They know it's 4 more years in another presidential term and Biden is looking like he cant get to November never mind 2028.

Keep Biden get Trump. It really is as simple as that.

From the polling I've seen, even now, before getting a boost of being the candidate, a number of Democrats poll as well as Biden v Trump.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

It wont shift the dial in the only states that matter: the 6/7 swing states.

Short of throwing Trump in prison he'll beat Biden in November.

The DNC has to act with responsibility and make sure that doesn't happen. That means standing him down.

If he goes, no one would be "throwing Trump in prison"

He'd be going to prison because of breaking the law. And because of his actions following conviction - which if these actions were done by anyone other than Donald Trump, it would be a foregone conclusion that convict would have to spend some time in prison.

We should not lose sight of this.

 

[tsubaki]

Well, I'm not sure it's just me who believes Trump will beat Biden, if it comes to that.

Trump - short of being jailed - is beating Biden.

The American electorate aren't going to vote for a man just because he's not Trump. They know it's 4 more years in another presidential term and Biden is looking like he cant get to November never mind 2028.

Keep Biden get Trump. It really is as simple as that.

From the polling I've seen, even now, before getting a boost of being the candidate, a number of Democrats poll as well as Biden v Trump.

View attachment 262848

This is the big problem that Biden has with the “existential threat to US democracy” pitch that they’ll push between now and November (if he stands) - that if they refuse to do the necessary then they can’t believe it is.

Him stepping down and saying how important it is would make that argument a lot stronger.

 

[Ruairi77]

Well, the Gaza slaughter is more important than its electoral effect in the US.

In any case, and as you've stated, he's been getting the runaround from Netanyahu and looking unable to affect matters, and that contributes to his demeanour of weakness and incompetency.

Biden and the Democrats will pay for their failure to lead over Gaza.

I'm not arguing over Gaza.
I'm with you, it's terrible and both America and the UK are complicit.
All, I and many others who live here, are pointing out, is that to voters it's down the pecking order of things that matter.
And that Trump will lead on Gaza but not in a way that you'd like.
It's been weeks and you don't seem to even acknowledge this.

 

[Ruairi77]

Also, hold on to your hats.
At about 10 am, I've a feeling SCOTUS will pretty much grant Trump immunity.

 

[tsubaki]

Also, hold on to your hats.
At about 10 am, I've a feeling SCOTUS will pretty much grant Trump immunity.

The solution to this would clearly be to shoot him and then avoid impeachment by reason of feeblemindedness.