davek
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Whatever the mechanism in place they better pull that lever well before the August convention.
The notion that Biden can get away with 5 more months of this is for the birds, and they know it.
Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race
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Whatever the mechanism in place they better pull that lever well before the August convention.
The notion that Biden can get away with 5 more months of this is for the birds, and they know it.
TN Toffee
Player Valuation: £25m
If it doesn’t happen in the next week or two, he’s their guy barring anything short of him actually dying or becoming incapacitated. I think the convention is just six weeks away, and unless he withdraws, most of his delegates are legally bound to cast their votes for him there.
There isn't a viable alternative candidate at this point, and that's the general issue no matter who is running against Trump. If you look at this post-debate poll, you can see that Trump's numbers are largely undeviating: he gets 46-48% of voters against any viable Democrat. Similarly any viable candidate including Harris (in addition to Biden) gets an undeviating 43-45% of the vote. The only thing that increases is the uncertainty among voters for less prominent Democratic candidates. And due to this uncertainty, I suspect the Democratic National Committee is too hidebound in their ways to remove Biden, especially at this stage.
And the approval of an alternative Democratic candidate is equally unclear, and generally worse than Biden:
I know you're stepping into this thread at this moment because it is an easy "I told you so" moment for davek-the-dogmatician (since most polls already favor Trump, and Biden is both likely to not be replaced and quite possibly lose the election), but you're not saying anything that hasn't been known for many years: once Biden was set as the nominee (see 2yr chart below) the race was always going to be tight as the RNC and its voters have rallied around Trump; whereas the Democratic voters represent a variety of centrist and progressive positions that don't speak to a unified message or to a unanimous candidate who can beat Trump.
Top Democratic donors are not happy apparently.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
Only the senate and Congress can stand a sitting president down.AFAIK he can - anytime before the Convention - be stood down by the party grandees.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
I don't think that's right. The Democratic Party changed their rules lately on that.
For sure. But they should have gotten angry in 2015 when Hilary was using their money to run a message-less, policy-free campaign that did absolutely nothing to boost the confidence of voters in the rust belt states. Her campaign was smug and victory-anticipating, and she mostly ran under an "I'm not Trump" message as no one believed he was a major threat.
If Biden steps down due to donor unhappiness, that would be pretty unprecedented. It's weird how much press this is getting relative to the true issue, which is Trump is incompetent at every level, and corrupt and criminal to boot. As outlined in the previous page of this thread in the Philadelphia Inquirer editorial
Impeachment and the 25th amendment is the only way to remove a sitting president.
Edit: or a bullet I suppose
Come on down...
Dr Jill !
Biden / Newsom Mk II
Come writers and critics
Who prophesize with your
And keep your eyes wide
The chance won't come again
And don't speak too soon
For the wheel's still in spin
And there's no tellin' who
That it's namin'
For the loser now
Will be later to win...
He wont be.AFAIK he can - anytime before the Convention - be stood down by the party grandees.
The only way he doesnt run is if he himself steps aside.
This was the same before the debate, it's the same now.
You're talking about two different things.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
What is it the Democrats can do then? I could have swore I heard they can now use a protocol to allow them to go to him and put pressure on him. Ok, maybe that isn't the same thing as being able to stop him running as a command, but it'd pretty much leave him no alternative other than to stand down.
I dont think, as long as Biden has 95% of the delegates, they can do much.
The only way he doesn't run is if he decides to drop out.
That happens if a) his family convince him or B) big money donors get the hebe jebes.
I've wanted him to drop out for years.
I actually think the effect on down ballot voting for the Dems could be catastrophic.
He was doing ok till Thursday, but unfortunately for him, the only thing he couldn't afford to do on Thursday was give the impression he's too old,
and he did just that.
The wagons have been circled and the 'off night' line rolled out.
But I'm with you, I don't think he can roll this back.
The next debate is in September and if he's still the nominee it'll be a slow motion car crash.
The only area I was constantly on at you was the war. It's important for about 10% of the vote in Michigan and thats about it.
Newsom, Harris, or any of the others dont do a thing different and none would be as bad as Trump.
Thought this was a good article in the New Yorker
www.newyorker.com
These are all extremely compelling reasons to ask Biden to step aside or to start an insurgency leading up to the convention in August. But if the point of this election is to defeat Trump—and I imagine for many Democrats it is—then you have to do some dirty calculations and realize that you don’t have a Plan B because all the backups aren’t ready yet, and because introducing one of them in the middle of the game is a risky gamble, at best.
There are countless problems that would come with the process of choosing a new candidate—if you bypass Kamala Harris, for example, does she just go quietly? And how do you sell the optics of nullifying the logical norms of succession for the first Black person and first woman to ever serve as Vice-President?
If you’re a supporter of Gavin Newsom, are you even sure he will agree to take on a potential losing and chaotic run at an office he could much more credibly run for in 2028? If you believe Gretchen Whitmer has the best chance of defeating Trump, because of her advantage in the “blue wall” states, does her relative paucity of national connections tank her chances in a convention setting?
Perhaps none of these are as weighty of a concern as Biden’s bad debate, but every road you go down with any of the possible substitutes kicks up potentially endless questions like these.
Can you invite such chaos when you can’t even decide on the successor? Or are Biden’s chances so dismal that any warm body would be preferable to watching him decline in public, get mercilessly ridiculed by Trump for the next four months, and then ultimately lose a low-turnout landslide that also takes out Democrats in the House and Senate? What are the chances that the Party can actually coalesce around a plan, whatever that might be?
The Case for Joe Biden Staying in the Race
The known bad candidate is better than the chaos of the unknown.
There are countless problems that would come with the process of choosing a new candidate—if you bypass Kamala Harris, for example, does she just go quietly? And how do you sell the optics of nullifying the logical norms of succession for the first Black person and first woman to ever serve as Vice-President?
If you’re a supporter of Gavin Newsom, are you even sure he will agree to take on a potential losing and chaotic run at an office he could much more credibly run for in 2028? If you believe Gretchen Whitmer has the best chance of defeating Trump, because of her advantage in the “blue wall” states, does her relative paucity of national connections tank her chances in a convention setting?
Perhaps none of these are as weighty of a concern as Biden’s bad debate, but every road you go down with any of the possible substitutes kicks up potentially endless questions like these.
Can you invite such chaos when you can’t even decide on the successor? Or are Biden’s chances so dismal that any warm body would be preferable to watching him decline in public, get mercilessly ridiculed by Trump for the next four months, and then ultimately lose a low-turnout landslide that also takes out Democrats in the House and Senate? What are the chances that the Party can actually coalesce around a plan, whatever that might be?
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