Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

[dylsexicbleu]

maybe, because most sane people dont want Trump to win.
His SOTU address was good, last night was not.
I fear that there are millions of people like you who'd happily re elect a rapist felon to own the libs.

No, I'd like Trump to be re-elected to prevent the country from getting worse. His felon status is irrelevant. Just as Joe's mental deterioration seems to be no barrier for most Dems. Dems will still mostly vote for Biden even if his brain is oatmeal at this point.

 

[davek]

Explain to me like I'm a 5 year old how the moral choice is to let Trump be POTUS

I'll hang up and listen

Your presenting a straw man.

Ive explained that my wish is for Biden to be replaced by a better candidate with a more critical pov on the GAZA situation. Ive asked 'can it be done at this stage?'.

But even now you're unwilling to grasp the nettle when that very opportunity seems to be here to ditch Genocide Joe.

It's you who needs to look to yourself. That procedural fig leaf of 'it's too late to turn back' has just been ripped away.

 

[Ruairi77]

No, I'd like Trump to be re-elected to prevent the country from getting worse. His felon status is irrelevant. Just as Joe's mental deterioration seems to be no barrier for most Dems. Dems will still mostly vote for Biden even if his brain is oatmeal at this point.

yes, I'd vote for a busted mattress over Trump.
I dont want someone who cheated on his wife with one woman while she was pregnant and another when she was home with their new born to be a roll model for my son.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Your presenting a straw man.

Ive explained that my wish is for Biden to be replaced by a better candidate with a more critical pov on the GAZA situation. Ive asked 'can it be done at this stage?'.

But even now you're unwilling to grasp the nettle when that very opportunity seems to be here to ditch Genocide Joe.

It's you who needs to look to yourself. That procedural fig leaf of 'it's too late to turn back' has just been ripped away.

OK mate. I sleep quite fine

 

[Tim's tourettes]

Most of us here saw this train wreck coming from hundreds of miles away

It's why, to a man and woman in here, we were stunned by Biden's desire to run for another term.

But it is what it is. You just get behind what reality is.

Kind of like being an Evertonian. Sure we all wish we could play beautiful football with guys like James all over the park, scoring loads. But Dycheball it is in our current financial situation. Dycheball had some ugly football midseason, but we stayed the course and ended up being comfortable.

I don't know what I'm saying. All I know is Trump can't win re-election. I still don't know, even after last night, whether everyone can agree on a candidate other than Biden to do that that won't alienate those on the fringes or keep people from voting

Thank you for the explanation
Can I ask, is it that its seen as too late for a new dem candidate? Ie, there just isn't enough time for he/she to engage with the public? Just that it seems to me that if you replaced Biden with anyone vaguely credible (who didn't automatically upset all Republicans) they would get all dem votes, most independents and some Republicans just wouldn't vote? The guilty verdicts really seem to have done him some damage and anyone other than a frail octogenarian would nail his coffin shut?

 

[tsubaki]

Unfortunately there is form, both by the politicians and the voters

Pelosi too of course

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Thank you for the explanation
Can I ask, is it that its seen as too late for a new dem candidate? Ie, there just isn't enough time for he/she to engage with the public? Just that it seems to me that if you replaced Biden with anyone vaguely credible (who didn't automatically upset all Republicans) they would get all dem votes, most independents and some Republicans just wouldn't vote? The guilty verdicts really seem to have done him some damage and anyone other than a frail octogenarian would nail his coffin shut?

The short answer to your question is yes, it's too late.

There is a longer answer that explains why it's likely too late, which I'll let @Martin Alvito explain.

I'll also let him explain the circumstances under which a candidate can come out of the convention, but there are concerns about who that candidate would ultimately be, and whether that candidate would be palatable to the swing voters necessary to win

 

[Martin Alvito]

christ, I know I argued toot and nail with @davek that the candidates are locked in, hope I'm wrong.

In principle, the convention delegates can do as they please. In practice, good luck organizing the rebellion. Not unlike with the country, identifying a problem falls far short of the votes to implement a proposed solution.

Replacing Biden results in winners and losers, on both policy and patronage dimensions. Securing broad agreement on  who should replace Biden will not be easy, even if the delegates broadly agree replacement is necessary. Biden's delegates are all hand-picked loyalists, and he won all but a few of the delegate slots, so the delegates are likely to be among the last in the party to turn on him.

 

[Tim's tourettes]

The short answer to your question is yes, it's too late.

There is a longer answer that explains why it's likely too late, which I'll let @Martin Alvito explain.

I'll also let him explain the circumstances under which a candidate can come out of the convention, but there are concerns about who that candidate would ultimately be, and whether that candidate would be palatable to the swing voters necessary to win

Dam shame. Trump worries me in that I feel (apart from his glaring character flaws as a human) he overall weakens the West and democracy in general.
I suspect he will be seen as a short term success though as I imagine he will force a Russia friendly negotiation in Ukraine and he'll beat China with a trade stick. Its what he gives up in terms of the long game that worries me.

 

[Martin Alvito]

The short answer to your question is yes, it's too late.

There is a longer answer that explains why it's likely too late, which I'll let @Martin Alvito explain.

I'll also let him explain the circumstances under which a candidate can come out of the convention, but there are concerns about who that candidate would ultimately be, and whether that candidate would be palatable to the swing voters necessary to win

The longer answer is that the delegates can nominate whoever they want as a collective. Persuading a couple thousand hand-picked Biden loyalists to stab him in the back is a huge ask, though. Then they would all have to get behind a single candidate.

Mancur Olson would tell you that's a Herculean task. He might be wrong, but he's usually right when it comes to collective action problems. The delegates won't replace Biden for the same reason voters don't line up behind someone other than the major party clowns in the primaries. It's too difficult to get them all pointing in the same direction.

 

[LinekersLegs]

Your presenting a straw man.

Ive explained that my wish is for Biden to be replaced by a better candidate with a more critical pov on the GAZA situation. Ive asked 'can it be done at this stage?'.

No as far as I am aware it cannot.

The only straightforward option at this point for any change is for Biden to resign, asking his delegates to instead vote for his VP, Harris becomes President and at the convention Biden’s delegates vote for her to be the nominee. Still a lot of paperwork to be done but probably achievable. But I don’t think Harris meets your Gaza criteria.

In theory once Biden delegates have been released from obligation to vote for him at the convention they are free to vote for someone else but very uncharted territory on rules. Contested conventions haven’t happened in recent history and even the ones where it did there were candidates who had run in the primary.

 

[Tim's tourettes]

The longer answer is that the delegates can nominate whoever they want as a collective. Persuading a couple thousand hand-picked Biden loyalists to stab him in the back is a huge ask, though. Then they would all have to get behind a single candidate.

Mancur Olson would tell you that's a Herculean task. He might be wrong, but he's usually right when it comes to collective action problems. The delegates won't replace Biden for the same reason voters don't line up behind someone other than the major party clowns in the primaries. It's too difficult to get them all pointing in the same direction.

What would happen if old Joe himself announced he now felt he couldn't hack another 4 years? Tbf, most fellas his age in the UK are dead or in a nursing home

 

[dylsexicbleu]

In principle, the convention delegates can do as they please. In practice, good luck organizing the rebellion. Not unlike with the country, identifying a problem falls far short of the votes to implement a proposed solution.

Replacing Biden results in winners and losers, on both policy and patronage dimensions. Securing broad agreement on  who should replace Biden will not be easy, even if the delegates broadly agree replacement is necessary. Biden's delegates are all hand-picked loyalists, and he won all but a few of the delegate slots, so the delegates are likely to be among the last in the party to turn on him.

The cleanest alternative is Kamala. Delegates would have a clear path to vote for her at the convention. I would also assume money donated to the Biden campaign(and superpacs) can be transferred to a ticket led by Harris. Transferring campaign money to a Newsom or Whitmer led ticket would have all sorts off legal difficulties.

Part of me wants to see a contested convention. Not sure I've seen one in my lifetime. Anyone know when the last contested D or R convention was?

 

[LinekersLegs]

 

[ChesterBlue]

Going with Biden for a second term is looking like a remarkably bad decision by the democrats. That debate performance was painful to watch.