Current Affairs 2024 POTUS race

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Zatara has been humiliated on this forum and by a woman, no less--darn suffrage and independence and all that! so now he's resorted to responding to LL with "Fake news" (with no information to back up his claim), and the cowardly addendum of "No i dont need a reply...or you to "argue" about posting false information."

Sad, pathetic, but expected.

I mean you don't even need to be a former VP of a bank to do a little googling and find out that the WSJ is an opinion piece, and does not speak to the economic indicators posted by LL, which were compiled by a separate branch of the Federal Reserve (FRED, which is based in St. Louis). Furthermore, that opinion piece is based off a larger study by the same author (see here) but still doesn't speak to any of the economic indicators in the tweet posted by LL--it rather tepidly and predictably rails against the Federal Reserve economists publishing, speaking, and holding seminars on things like diversity, equity, and climate change.

[A rather ironic addition to all this is that in the WSJ opinion piece, based on the aforementioned study, the author had to exclude the Federal Reserve bank of St. Louis (which includes FRED and the employees that work there), so it can't even speak to the political affiliation of the group that compiled all those economic indicators. How does one claim political bias (or "Fake news" "misinformation") in a Federal Reserve group of employees who's political affiliations are unknown?]

On the other hand, Zat did post a letter from an angry random citizen from Camarillo CA, which was empty, subjective, a sample of 1, and contained some crisp intellectual zingers such as "They are politicians which in my personal interpretation fits my definition of politics (poli=many + tics=blood sucking insects)" so this is very much in line with Zat's manner of thinking.


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From 2023 it seems but in any case… What an ‘effing idiot. You can even see his sycophants shifting around and looking uncomfortable as he starts into his nonsense claims. This is Derp State level racism.
Between what is certain to come out between now and November and what has historically happened with third party candidates, it's hard to see him holding on to 7-10%, and even harder to see that number increasing.

The question is which voters he loses, and where they go. What happened with young voters in France and elsewhere in Europe recently is worrisome, to say the least. The most convincing explanation I have heard is that simplistic far right messaging just plays better on social media apps. Cost of living has young people angry, and they're vulnerable to emotional appeals right now.

Surveys have the Medicare-eligible crowd voting Democrat, which hasn't happened in a while, and young voters breaking Republican, which only happens in landslide Republican victories. That's not great, as support for RFK Jr. is higher among young voters. However, almost everyone above the age of 65 has an opinion about him, and it's the demographic that dislikes him the most by a wide margin. 20-30% of younger voters don't have an opinion.

One way of looking at that is that the more people learn about RFK Jr., the more they dislike him. Another is that low-information young voters don't learn enough about him to dislike him.

In so many ways, this election is as frustrating to predict as 1992. We knew how that story likely ended on Election Day, but it wasn't clear much before that. It seems more likely that, as has so often been the case in recent decades, we'll go to sleep that night not knowing who won.
 
Between what is certain to come out between now and November and what has historically happened with third party candidates, it's hard to see him holding on to 7-10%, and even harder to see that number increasing.

The question is which voters he loses, and where they go. What happened with young voters in France and elsewhere in Europe recently is worrisome, to say the least. The most convincing explanation I have heard is that simplistic far right messaging just plays better on social media apps. Cost of living has young people angry, and they're vulnerable to emotional appeals right now.

Surveys have the Medicare-eligible crowd voting Democrat, which hasn't happened in a while, and young voters breaking Republican, which only happens in landslide Republican victories. That's not great, as support for RFK Jr. is higher among young voters. However, almost everyone above the age of 65 has an opinion about him, and it's the demographic that dislikes him the most by a wide margin. 20-30% of younger voters don't have an opinion.

One way of looking at that is that the more people learn about RFK Jr., the more they dislike him. Another is that low-information young voters don't learn enough about him to dislike him.

In so many ways, this election is as frustrating to predict as 1992. We knew how that story likely ended on Election Day, but it wasn't clear much before that. It seems more likely that, as has so often been the case in recent decades, we'll go to sleep that night not knowing who won.

TBF I think RFK is suffering because he’s been exposed as another politician rather than a free-thinker of the type he pretends to be.

Like Peterson, Kirk and so many others, once October 7th happened they placed themselves in the line alongside all of the Swamp residents, Trump and Biden.

It has removed nearly all of the reason for people to vote for him, when even mild criticism of the decisions of the Israeli government that led up to October 7th would have enabled him to position himself as someone different. Should the Israeli campaign not be a success (as it appears it won’t be) then being able to say I told you so could have been really helpful.
 
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