Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary

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With the usual caveats about the reliability of a single poll, this one does not have good news for Harris in her home state. Probably a bit disappointing for Warren as well.

I think most blue Californians would be Sanders and Warren. Well the younger ones anyway.

Of course Biden would pick up a good share too. That will change.

Honestly I think people still like him simply becuase that foolishly think he is the only one that can beat Trump


Their appeal compared too Harris would be bigger I think
 
That scenario is looking increasingly unlikely if the polls are anywhere near accurate.


Pete has been using his huge money haul in the last quarter to run tv ads in Iowa and they seem to have been effective at getting him into 3rd place.

I saw that poll, when they say Biden is +8 at 25%, does that actually mean he was polling at 17% with rural Americans and his popularity is soaring? seems odd.
 
I saw that poll, when they say Biden is +8 at 25%, does that actually mean he was polling at 17% with rural Americans and his popularity is soaring? seems odd.
Despite the weird pollster name it seems like it was just a sampling of Iowa voters, not restricted to just rural ones.

‘“David Binder Research conducted 500 interviews by cell phone and landline on September 14th – 17th, 2019 with registered voters in Iowa who stated they were likely to participate in the Democratic Presidential caucuses of 2020. All participants were recruited from official Iowa voter lists.
Results are subject to a margin of error of no greater than ±4.4%.”

They have a helpful graph of their trends here
 
The variance in these polls is huge.
State polls in particular are notoriously difficult to do so tend jump all around the place although common trends in gaining/losing support across them can be more indicative.

The “gold standard’ pollster in Iowa is Anne Seltzer, think her latest poll of the race should also drop this week so will be interesting to compare.
 
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