Current Affairs 2020 Democratic Primary
- Thread starter abelard
- Start date
- Status
Yikes, brutal poll for Harris.
Only one poll of course and YouGov seems to have a “house effect” very favorable to Warren but tbh the typically more accurate poll-averages aren’t that much better as they have her at 7 just ahead of Mayor Pete.
Only one poll of course and YouGov seems to have a “house effect” very favorable to Warren but tbh the typically more accurate poll-averages aren’t that much better as they have her at 7 just ahead of Mayor Pete.
is it a mistake when it has Biden up 4?
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
I think turnout is going to be up whoever gets the nomination. If there’s genuinely people out there who’d get out and vote Dem if Warren (my choice), Harris, Buttiegieg etc were the nominee who then wouldn’t if it was Biden (far from my choice) they need their heads knocking together.
There are a lot of people who don't vote here because they are registered in a different place. This is especially the case for students and younger members of the workforce. Basically anyone from 18 to 30.
Here's the scenario, some kid who's marginally interested in politics, studying in Boston but is from Connecticut, say about 90 mins away, has never changed where he/she is registered to vote because their address in Boston is constantly changing.
Election day is a Tuesday (for a stupid antiquated reason that we're hell bent on keeping apparently) in November. If Biden is the nominee, this person will not bother to change where they are registered or take off class/work to travel home and vote. It's not too bad in Mass/CT where there's no chance of a Trump win but this situation will repeat across the country.
I think anyone other than Biden can generate momentum head to head with Trump, maybe enough to get younger people to go the extra step to vote.
I wonder if Biden is consolidating back support from Harris that she won from him in the first debate?
I also realised I wasn’t very clear in my original post ( pre-caffeine
) when I said “typically more accurate poll-averages aren’t that much better as they have her at 7 just ahead of Mayor Pete.” I meant Harris rather than Warren!Still a long way to go, and a lot of people will only start paying attention now summer is over, but really seems like Biden/Sanders/Warren are pulling ahead of the rest of the pack.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
Yeah I mean I get the theory... Do you not think a large part (even the majority) of the increased turnout will be down to Trump as much as it’s down to the nominee though?
I realise that thinking didn’t hold in 2016, but the situation is “real” now, whereas let’s be honest, most thought they could safely sit the 2016 election out as he “stood no chance”.
yea, I think there'll be an increased turnout to oppose Trump, I just think it'll be far bigger if the likes of Sanders or Warren are running against him and not Biden.
The apathy surrounding old establishment democrats is still very real.
There's a large block of younger voters who didn't sit it out because of complacency but rather chose not to vote because there was nothing appealing about either candidate.
Biden isn't even trying to appeal to younger voters.
Running Biden would draw a slightly bigger turnout than Hillary but not much.
But, like I said, I can see him taking the likes of Florida and Pennsylvania and the presidency. There's an outside chance the dems could take the Senate but they'd need a huge turn out.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
I'm a bit more optimistic on a Biden turnout than you are I guess. There was massive turnout in 2018, and while yes, some of that was down to (some) younger more progressive candidates, ALL races were up, even those with establishment candidates running.
Also think Biden's close association with Obama (along with the Trump factor) would take his turnout numbers significantly above Hillary's.
here's hoping!
Saw an interview with Biden recently, he was slurring his words and couldn't string a cogent sentence together at points. Will need someone with a lot of energy, it needs to be Warren or Sanders imo
dholliday
deconstructed rep
I haven't been active here since March, but in-between I've been impressed by Tulsi Gabbard and disappointed at the odd negative (or lack of) coverage she's been getting from the progressive mainstream despite ticking the relevant identity-politics boxes: female, darker skin. She's even suing Google (and was apparently the most searched-for candidate after the last debates).
I gather she didn't qualify for the next round of debates...which is interesting timing considering she trounced the actual darling of progressive media last time round.
If I was American and she was the actual Pres candidate, she'd 100% have my vote: anti-war while having actual experience of military conflict is a healthy mix for a US Pres to have. And she could beat Trump too as Republican-voters do love a candidate with proper military service.
Soz if there's already been tons of discussion on Tulsi...
I gather she didn't qualify for the next round of debates...which is interesting timing considering she trounced the actual darling of progressive media last time round.
If I was American and she was the actual Pres candidate, she'd 100% have my vote: anti-war while having actual experience of military conflict is a healthy mix for a US Pres to have. And she could beat Trump too as Republican-voters do love a candidate with proper military service.
Soz if there's already been tons of discussion on Tulsi...
Just caught the end of Biden. He was poor.
Sanders, warren and now Buttigeig doing well
Sanders, warren and now Buttigeig doing well
I Miss Chang
Player Valuation: £150k
That isn't actually true though, is it.
- Status